Alert archive / Tennessee / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Memphis, TN

March 9, 2017Dyer County, Lake County, Tennessee; Pemiscot County, Missouri

NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 9, 2017, 8:34 PM CST for Dyer County, Lake County, Tennessee; Pemiscot County, Missouri. It was in force for 41 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Mar 9, 2017, 8:34 PM CST (02:34 UTC)
Expired: Mar 9, 2017, 9:15 PM CST
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Pemiscot County, MO, Dyer County, TN, Lake County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Mar 9, 8:54 PM CST	HAIL 1	Dyersburg, TN

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 20 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 9, 6:42 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 00:00Z, 2.6 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 445 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -58 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 583 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 172 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 312 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 6.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

852 
WUUS54 KMEG 100234
SVRMEG
MOC155-TNC045-095-100315-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0051.170310T0234Z-170310T0315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
834 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Pemiscot County in southeastern Missouri...
  Dyer County in western Tennessee...
  Southwestern Lake County in western Tennessee...

* Until 915 PM CST

* At 833 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Heloise, or
  near Caruthersville, moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Dyersburg, Caruthersville, Newbern, Bradleytown, Heloise,
  Unionville, Miston, Trimble, Fowlkes, Lapata, Bonicord, Locust
  Grove, Jenkinsville, Maxey, Rohoboth, Broadmoor, Edgewood, Parker,
  Lane and Tatumville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 8948 3620 8916 3603 8916 3602 8920
      3600 8919 3597 8920 3589 8929 3591 8936
      3595 8941 3595 8949 3594 8949 3599 8973
      3600 8973 3601 8982 3613 8971 3623 8969
      3625 8970
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 275DEG 42KT 3610 8963 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

1 follow-up statement

049 
WWUS54 KMEG 100314
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
914 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

MOC155-TNC045-095-100324-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-170310T0315Z/
Pemiscot MO-Dyer TN-Lake TN-
914 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PEMISCOT...DYER
AND SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 915 PM CST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CST for
eastern Arkansas...southeastern Missouri...and western Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3621 8948 3620 8916 3603 8916 3602 8920
      3600 8919 3597 8920 3589 8929 3591 8936
      3595 8941 3595 8949 3594 8949 3599 8973
      3600 8973 3601 8982 3613 8971 3623 8969
      3625 8970
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 275DEG 42KT 3606 8905 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 9, 5:33 PM CST, 3 hours 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 9, 5:33 PM CST, 3 hours 1 minute before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
533 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated to add 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&
.DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Little
Rock AR/

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday Night

The main concern for the short term period will be the possibility
of strong to severe storms this evening, and then the chances for
some wintry precipitation on Saturday morning and again Saturday
evening/night.

First up, the storms tonight. A cold front across eastern Kansas
through central Missouri. Guidance points to the development of an
MCS in southwestern Missouri, and pushes it southeast through
northern and northeastern Arkansas and western Tennessee through the
evening hours through around or shortly after midnight. By 2-3am it
appears storms will be south of the forecast area so this will be a
quick hitting bout of storms. While some threat of tornadoes does
exist in southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas, the main threats
for our forecast area will be the possibility of damaging winds.
Expect these storms to roll through the Memphis metro area between
10pm-Midnight.

Regarding the wintry weather on Sat morning and then again Sat night
into Sun morning, it appears likely that at least some wintry
precipitation will be seen. Saturday morning will be mainly near
the Missouri and Kentucky state lines, well north of the metro.
The limiting factor there will be the actual presence of
precipitation. Decent dry/cold air maintenance in northeast
surface flow will allow for conditions prime for wet bulb
processes to hold temperatures down to around the freezing mark
for a few hours after daybreak. The most likely precip type would
be sleet. However, models are very limited in the amount of
precipitation they're producing so this doesn't appear to be much
of a worry. It may be more of a situation where there's some
light returns on radar but nothing reaches the ground. The bigger
concern is Saturday night into Sunday morning. A more significant
swath of precipitation should occur in temperatures sufficient for
wintry precipitation, and expect to see around an inch of snow
fall across northeast Arkansas, western Tennessee, and northern
Mississippi. Have foregone the issuance of any headlines at this
time because this is still a couple of days out, and minor changes
in temperature forecasts could result in noticeably different
precipitation types. But it is definitely worth keeping an eye on,
as it would affect a broad area. &&

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Dry and colder conditions will start off the period as wintry
precip comes to an end early Sun morning. Sfc high pressure will
settle over the Mid-South to close out the weekend. Highs on Sun
will be in the 40s and 50s. Many locations along and N of the I-40
corridor will likely see sub-freezing temps by Mon morning.

The airmass will briefly modify on Mon ahead of a quick moving
storm sys. Small rain chcs were mentioned over mainly the north
half of the FA Mon and Mon evening. Rain amounts are expected to
be light due to the lack of significant moisture return.

Models are at odds regarding several additional weak weather
systems passing across the area towards the middle of the week.
Included rain chances for Thursday, as the associated system looks
to at least have ample moisture/lift. Temperatures will be warming
by the end of the period, so no concerns for any additional winter
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

Cluster of showers and thunderstorms over Southern Missouri
expected to develop into a convective complex and drop SSE into
the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening affecting JBR between
10/03Z-05Z, MEM and MKL between 10/04Z-07Z, and TUP between 10
/05Z-08Z. MVFR/IFR conditions possible within thunderstorms. S
winds will veer NW and become gusty with passage of convective
complex and gradually veer N/NE with passage of cold front Friday
morning. Winds expected to gradually lighten by Friday afternoon.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 9, 3:30 PM CST, 5 hours 4 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
330 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-102330-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
330 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe storms are possible across the Mid-South tonight,
especially across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and
West Tennessee. The primary threats will be damaging winds and
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is the potential for accumulating winter precipitation
across northern portions of the Mid South including Eastern
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee for late
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

Freezing temperatures are anticipated over a large portion of the
Midsouth each night from Saturday night through Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across the Midsouth tonight.

SJM

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 9, 6:43 PM CST, 1 hour 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
643 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             2 ESE TREMONT           34.22N 88.22W
03/09/2017  M1.00 INCH       ITAWAMBA           MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

MRM

Local storm report, Mar 9, 7:23 PM CST, 1 hour 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
723 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     HAIL             AMORY                   33.99N 88.48W
03/09/2017  E1.75 INCH       MONROE             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL FOR 2 MINUTES IN THE TOWN OF AMORY.

&&

MRM

Local storm report, Mar 9, 7:43 PM CST, 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
743 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             SMITHVILLE              36.08N 91.30W
03/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE INCH HAIL BETWEEN NEW SALEM AND SMITHVILLE.

&&

MRM

Local storm report, Mar 9, 7:49 PM CST, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
749 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     MALDEN                  36.58N 89.98W
03/09/2017  M64.00 MPH       DUNKLIN            MO   AWOS

            ANEMOMETER AT MALDEN AIRPORT REPORTED A MEASURED WIND
            GUST OF 64 MILES AN HOUR.

&&

MRM

Local storm report, Mar 9, 7:52 PM CST, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
752 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             2 ESE TREMONT           34.22N 88.22W
03/09/2017  M1.00 INCH       ITAWAMBA           MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

0635 PM     HAIL             SMITHVILLE              34.07N 88.40W
03/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE INCH HAIL BETWEEN NEW SALEM AND SMITHVILLE.

0716 PM     HAIL             AMORY                   33.99N 88.48W
03/09/2017  E1.75 INCH       MONROE             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL FOR 2 MINUTES IN THE TOWN OF AMORY.

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     MALDEN                  36.58N 89.98W
03/09/2017  M64.00 MPH       DUNKLIN            MO   AWOS

            ANEMOMETER AT MALDEN AIRPORT REPORTED A MEASURED WIND
            GUST OF 64 MILES AN HOUR.

&&

MRM

Local storm report, Mar 9, 8:18 PM CST, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
818 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             CLARKTON                36.45N 89.97W
03/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       DUNKLIN            MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ONE INCH HAIL IN CLARKTON.

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLARKTON                36.45N 89.97W
03/09/2017  E60.00 MPH       DUNKLIN            MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

&&

MRM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 9, 8:00 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lake, Obion	45 min
Mar 9, 8:45 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Gibson, Obion, Weakley	45 min
Mar 9, 8:52 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Obion	23 min
Mar 9, 9:10 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Henry	50 min
Mar 9, 9:29 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Carroll, Gibson, Henderson, Madison, Weakley	61 min
Mar 9, 9:32 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Henderson, Madison	43 min
Mar 9, 9:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Benton	38 min
Mar 9, 9:57 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Henderson	34 min
Mar 9, 10:00 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Decatur	45 min
Mar 9, 10:06 PM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Benton, Carroll, Decatur, Henderson	24 min
Mar 9, 10:07 PM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Henderson	21 min
Mar 9, 10:16 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lauderdale, Tipton	44 min
Mar 9, 10:19 PM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Decatur	26 min
Mar 9, 10:34 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Chester, Decatur, Hardin, Henderson, McNairy, Madison	41 min
Mar 9, 10:41 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Chester, Crockett, Haywood, Henderson, Madison	3 hr
Mar 9, 11:19 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Shelby	26 min
Mar 9, 11:26 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Shelby	34 min
Mar 9, 11:46 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Fayette, Shelby	44 min
Mar 10, 3:30 AM CST	Frost Advisory	MEG	Fayette, Hardeman, Hardin, Haywood, Lauderdale, McNairy and 2 more	25 hr
Mar 10, 3:30 AM CST	Freeze Warning	MEG	Benton, Carroll, Chester, Crockett, Decatur, Dyer and 7 more	25 hr
Mar 10, 5:43 AM CST	River Flood Warning	MEG	Crockett, Dyer, Lauderdale	6 hr
Mar 9, 7:14 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dunklin	31 min
Mar 9, 7:33 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dunklin	42 min
Mar 9, 7:44 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dunklin	46 min
Mar 9, 8:10 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dunklin, Pemiscot	50 min
Mar 9, 9:01 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Dunklin	44 min
Mar 9, 9:08 PM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	MEG	Dunklin, Pemiscot	112 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Tennessee, 2017 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2017 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.