Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
533 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated to add 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&
.DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Little
Rock AR/

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday Night

The main concern for the short term period will be the possibility
of strong to severe storms this evening, and then the chances for
some wintry precipitation on Saturday morning and again Saturday
evening/night.

First up, the storms tonight. A cold front across eastern Kansas
through central Missouri. Guidance points to the development of an
MCS in southwestern Missouri, and pushes it southeast through
northern and northeastern Arkansas and western Tennessee through the
evening hours through around or shortly after midnight. By 2-3am it
appears storms will be south of the forecast area so this will be a
quick hitting bout of storms. While some threat of tornadoes does
exist in southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas, the main threats
for our forecast area will be the possibility of damaging winds.
Expect these storms to roll through the Memphis metro area between
10pm-Midnight.

Regarding the wintry weather on Sat morning and then again Sat night
into Sun morning, it appears likely that at least some wintry
precipitation will be seen. Saturday morning will be mainly near
the Missouri and Kentucky state lines, well north of the metro.
The limiting factor there will be the actual presence of
precipitation. Decent dry/cold air maintenance in northeast
surface flow will allow for conditions prime for wet bulb
processes to hold temperatures down to around the freezing mark
for a few hours after daybreak. The most likely precip type would
be sleet. However, models are very limited in the amount of
precipitation they're producing so this doesn't appear to be much
of a worry. It may be more of a situation where there's some
light returns on radar but nothing reaches the ground. The bigger
concern is Saturday night into Sunday morning. A more significant
swath of precipitation should occur in temperatures sufficient for
wintry precipitation, and expect to see around an inch of snow
fall across northeast Arkansas, western Tennessee, and northern
Mississippi. Have foregone the issuance of any headlines at this
time because this is still a couple of days out, and minor changes
in temperature forecasts could result in noticeably different
precipitation types. But it is definitely worth keeping an eye on,
as it would affect a broad area. &&

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Dry and colder conditions will start off the period as wintry
precip comes to an end early Sun morning. Sfc high pressure will
settle over the Mid-South to close out the weekend. Highs on Sun
will be in the 40s and 50s. Many locations along and N of the I-40
corridor will likely see sub-freezing temps by Mon morning.

The airmass will briefly modify on Mon ahead of a quick moving
storm sys. Small rain chcs were mentioned over mainly the north
half of the FA Mon and Mon evening. Rain amounts are expected to
be light due to the lack of significant moisture return.

Models are at odds regarding several additional weak weather
systems passing across the area towards the middle of the week.
Included rain chances for Thursday, as the associated system looks
to at least have ample moisture/lift. Temperatures will be warming
by the end of the period, so no concerns for any additional winter
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

Cluster of showers and thunderstorms over Southern Missouri
expected to develop into a convective complex and drop SSE into
the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening affecting JBR between
10/03Z-05Z, MEM and MKL between 10/04Z-07Z, and TUP between 10
/05Z-08Z. MVFR/IFR conditions possible within thunderstorms. S
winds will veer NW and become gusty with passage of convective
complex and gradually veer N/NE with passage of cold front Friday
morning. Winds expected to gradually lighten by Friday afternoon.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
330 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-102330-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
330 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe storms are possible across the Mid-South tonight,
especially across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and
West Tennessee. The primary threats will be damaging winds and
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is the potential for accumulating winter precipitation
across northern portions of the Mid South including Eastern
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee for late
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

Freezing temperatures are anticipated over a large portion of the
Midsouth each night from Saturday night through Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across the Midsouth tonight.

SJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
752 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             2 ESE TREMONT           34.22N 88.22W
03/09/2017  M1.00 INCH       ITAWAMBA           MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

0635 PM     HAIL             SMITHVILLE              34.07N 88.40W
03/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE INCH HAIL BETWEEN NEW SALEM AND SMITHVILLE.

0716 PM     HAIL             AMORY                   33.99N 88.48W
03/09/2017  E1.75 INCH       MONROE             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL FOR 2 MINUTES IN THE TOWN OF AMORY.

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     MALDEN                  36.58N 89.98W
03/09/2017  M64.00 MPH       DUNKLIN            MO   AWOS

            ANEMOMETER AT MALDEN AIRPORT REPORTED A MEASURED WIND
            GUST OF 64 MILES AN HOUR.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
818 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             CLARKTON                36.45N 89.97W
03/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       DUNKLIN            MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ONE INCH HAIL IN CLARKTON.

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLARKTON                36.45N 89.97W
03/09/2017  E60.00 MPH       DUNKLIN            MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
848 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             2 ESE TREMONT           34.22N 88.22W
03/09/2017  M1.00 INCH       ITAWAMBA           MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

0635 PM     HAIL             SMITHVILLE              34.07N 88.40W
03/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE INCH HAIL BETWEEN NEW SALEM AND SMITHVILLE.

0716 PM     HAIL             AMORY                   33.99N 88.48W
03/09/2017  E1.75 INCH       MONROE             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL FOR 2 MINUTES IN THE TOWN OF AMORY.

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     MALDEN                  36.58N 89.98W
03/09/2017  M64.00 MPH       DUNKLIN            MO   AWOS

            ANEMOMETER AT MALDEN AIRPORT REPORTED A MEASURED WIND
            GUST OF 64 MILES AN HOUR.

0810 PM     HAIL             CLARKTON                36.45N 89.97W
03/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       DUNKLIN            MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ONE INCH HAIL IN CLARKTON.

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLARKTON                36.45N 89.97W
03/09/2017  E60.00 MPH       DUNKLIN            MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

0830 PM     HAIL             MALDEN                  36.58N 89.98W
03/09/2017  M1.00 INCH       DUNKLIN            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE INCH HAIL IN MALDEN.

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     N MALDEN                36.58N 89.98W
03/09/2017  E65.00 MPH       DUNKLIN            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH AT THE AIR
            BASE NORTH OF MALDEN.

&&

MRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
901 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-MOZ113-115-100345-
Greene AR-Lawrence AR-Randolph AR-Clay AR-Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-
901 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 945 PM CST
FOR...

Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
Central Lawrence County in eastern Arkansas...
Southern Randolph County in eastern Arkansas...
Southern Clay County in eastern Arkansas...
Southwestern Pemiscot County in southeastern Missouri...
Southern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

At 900 PM CST...strong thunderstorms were producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located along a line extending
from near Kennett to 6 miles north of O'kean to Ballard. Movement was
southeast at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Greene...central Lawrence...southern Randolph...southern
Clay...southwestern Pemiscot and southern Dunklin Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3623 9135 3623 9133 3624 9133 3624 9126
      3629 9126 3629 9092 3626 8995 3601 8982
      3599 9058 3607 9135
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 314DEG 23KT 3622 8998 3625 9086 3624 9168

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
910 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             2 ESE TREMONT           34.22N 88.22W
03/09/2017  M1.00 INCH       ITAWAMBA           MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

0635 PM     HAIL             SMITHVILLE              34.07N 88.40W
03/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE INCH HAIL BETWEEN NEW SALEM AND SMITHVILLE.

0716 PM     HAIL             AMORY                   33.99N 88.48W
03/09/2017  E1.75 INCH       MONROE             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL FOR 2 MINUTES IN THE TOWN OF AMORY.

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     MALDEN                  36.58N 89.98W
03/09/2017  M64.00 MPH       DUNKLIN            MO   AWOS

            ANEMOMETER AT MALDEN AIRPORT REPORTED A MEASURED WIND
            GUST OF 64 MILES AN HOUR.

0810 PM     HAIL             CLARKTON                36.45N 89.97W
03/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       DUNKLIN            MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ONE INCH HAIL IN CLARKTON.

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLARKTON                36.45N 89.97W
03/09/2017  E60.00 MPH       DUNKLIN            MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     N MALDEN                36.58N 89.98W
03/09/2017  E65.00 MPH       DUNKLIN            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH AT THE AIR
            BASE NORTH OF MALDEN.

0830 PM     HAIL             MALDEN                  36.58N 89.98W
03/09/2017  M1.00 INCH       DUNKLIN            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE INCH HAIL IN MALDEN.

0716 PM     HAIL             AMORY                   33.99N 88.48W
03/09/2017  E1.50 INCH       MONROE             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MORE DAMAGE FROM LARGE HAIL CAUSING BROKEN WINDOWS AT 3
            BUSINESSES AND ONE CAR LOT REPORTING DAMAGE FROM HAIL.

0716 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AMORY                   33.99N 88.48W
03/09/2017                   MONROE             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES DOWN AROUND THE TOWN OF AMORY.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
931 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENFIELD              36.16N 88.80W
03/09/2017                   WEAKLEY            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WINDS BLEW OVER A TRACTOR TRAILER TRUCK ON HIGHWAY
            45 NEAR THE PARKER HANNIFIN CORP.BUILDING.

&&

MRM