Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Memphis, TN

998 
WWUS54 KMEG 100536
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1136 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

MSC057-081-100600-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-170310T0600Z/
Itawamba MS-Lee MS-
1136 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
FOR ITAWAMBA AND SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTIES...

At 1135 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over New Salem, or
9 miles southeast of Fulton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Fulton, Tombigbee State Park, Shannon, Mantachie, Tremont, Fairview,
New Salem, Sandy Springs, Evergreen, Clay, Nettleton, Abney, Eastman,
Turon, Mooreville, Eggville, Ballardsville, Kirkville, Cardsville and
Tilden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3409 8820 3409 8870 3447 8855 3446 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 0535Z 273DEG 24KT 3415 8831 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

703 
WWUS54 KMEG 100543
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1143 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

MSC057-081-100553-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-170310T0600Z/
Itawamba MS-Lee MS-
1143 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ITAWAMBA AND SOUTHEASTERN LEE
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for
northeastern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3409 8820 3409 8870 3447 8855 3446 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 0540Z 273DEG 24KT 3415 8824 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
533 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated to add 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&
.DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Little
Rock AR/

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday Night

The main concern for the short term period will be the possibility
of strong to severe storms this evening, and then the chances for
some wintry precipitation on Saturday morning and again Saturday
evening/night.

First up, the storms tonight. A cold front across eastern Kansas
through central Missouri. Guidance points to the development of an
MCS in southwestern Missouri, and pushes it southeast through
northern and northeastern Arkansas and western Tennessee through the
evening hours through around or shortly after midnight. By 2-3am it
appears storms will be south of the forecast area so this will be a
quick hitting bout of storms. While some threat of tornadoes does
exist in southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas, the main threats
for our forecast area will be the possibility of damaging winds.
Expect these storms to roll through the Memphis metro area between
10pm-Midnight.

Regarding the wintry weather on Sat morning and then again Sat night
into Sun morning, it appears likely that at least some wintry
precipitation will be seen. Saturday morning will be mainly near
the Missouri and Kentucky state lines, well north of the metro.
The limiting factor there will be the actual presence of
precipitation. Decent dry/cold air maintenance in northeast
surface flow will allow for conditions prime for wet bulb
processes to hold temperatures down to around the freezing mark
for a few hours after daybreak. The most likely precip type would
be sleet. However, models are very limited in the amount of
precipitation they're producing so this doesn't appear to be much
of a worry. It may be more of a situation where there's some
light returns on radar but nothing reaches the ground. The bigger
concern is Saturday night into Sunday morning. A more significant
swath of precipitation should occur in temperatures sufficient for
wintry precipitation, and expect to see around an inch of snow
fall across northeast Arkansas, western Tennessee, and northern
Mississippi. Have foregone the issuance of any headlines at this
time because this is still a couple of days out, and minor changes
in temperature forecasts could result in noticeably different
precipitation types. But it is definitely worth keeping an eye on,
as it would affect a broad area. &&

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Dry and colder conditions will start off the period as wintry
precip comes to an end early Sun morning. Sfc high pressure will
settle over the Mid-South to close out the weekend. Highs on Sun
will be in the 40s and 50s. Many locations along and N of the I-40
corridor will likely see sub-freezing temps by Mon morning.

The airmass will briefly modify on Mon ahead of a quick moving
storm sys. Small rain chcs were mentioned over mainly the north
half of the FA Mon and Mon evening. Rain amounts are expected to
be light due to the lack of significant moisture return.

Models are at odds regarding several additional weak weather
systems passing across the area towards the middle of the week.
Included rain chances for Thursday, as the associated system looks
to at least have ample moisture/lift. Temperatures will be warming
by the end of the period, so no concerns for any additional winter
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

Cluster of showers and thunderstorms over Southern Missouri
expected to develop into a convective complex and drop SSE into
the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening affecting JBR between
10/03Z-05Z, MEM and MKL between 10/04Z-07Z, and TUP between 10
/05Z-08Z. MVFR/IFR conditions possible within thunderstorms. S
winds will veer NW and become gusty with passage of convective
complex and gradually veer N/NE with passage of cold front Friday
morning. Winds expected to gradually lighten by Friday afternoon.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
330 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-102330-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
330 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe storms are possible across the Mid-South tonight,
especially across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and
West Tennessee. The primary threats will be damaging winds and
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is the potential for accumulating winter precipitation
across northern portions of the Mid South including Eastern
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee for late
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

Freezing temperatures are anticipated over a large portion of the
Midsouth each night from Saturday night through Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across the Midsouth tonight.

SJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1024 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 PM     HAIL             1 NW HURON              35.60N 88.54W
03/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       HENDERSON          TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE INCH HAIL IN LURAY.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1028 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               35.65N 88.39W
03/09/2017  E1.50 INCH       HENDERSON          TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1035 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOLLOW ROCK             36.03N 88.27W
03/09/2017                   CARROLL            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN ACROSS TOWN.

&&

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1047 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 NE MARTIN             36.37N 88.82W
03/09/2017                   WEAKLEY            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN CHESTNUT GLADE.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1050 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE MARTIN             36.37N 88.82W
03/09/2017                   WEAKLEY            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN CHESTNUT GLADE.

&&

MRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1053 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

ARZ027-028-035-036-048-TNZ049-088-100545-
Poinsett AR-St. Francis AR-Mississippi AR-Cross AR-Crittenden AR-
Tipton TN-Shelby TN-
1053 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1145 PM CST
FOR...

Southern Poinsett County in eastern Arkansas...
North central St. Francis County in eastern Arkansas...
Southwestern Mississippi County in eastern Arkansas...
Cross County in eastern Arkansas...
Northern Crittenden County in eastern Arkansas...
Southwestern Tipton County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Shelby County in western Tennessee...

At 1052 PM CST...strong thunderstorms were producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located along a line extending
from Fulton to near Cherry Valley. Movement was  southeast at 35 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southern Poinsett...north central St. Francis...
southwestern Mississippi...Cross...northern Crittenden...southwestern
Tipton and northwestern Shelby Counties should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3550 9104 3566 9006 3526 8998 3511 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 330DEG 32KT 3562 8990 3545 9083