Areal Flood Warning 18, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
853 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Clusters of strong/severe storms are expanding as a pair of MCS's
(one over northern Illinois and the other over Kansas/western
Missouri) start to converge. First cluster currently moving across
the northern CWA with another increasing across west central
Illinois. Areas south of I-70 will likely hold off on the
activity until midnight or later, but storms will continue to
march east-southeast across the remainder of the forecast area for
the next several hours.

General trends already in place with the gridded forecasts, but
will update the PoP trends to reflect the latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Cold front lingering to the NW this afternoon moving closer to the
region and will be driving tonights weather and into tomorrow.
Hot and muggy air in the boundary layer is in place over the
region. However, much of the anticipated convection is very
conditional on several elements. Surface based parcels with
dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70 result in a significant CAPE
close to 2000 J/kg on the 18z special sounding at ILX. However, a
slight alteration to the sounding, mixing those dewpoints a
bit...if only to how dry it is at 50ft AGL, results in a major
loss of CAPE and a far more substantial cap. Shear is delayed with
the wave aloft and the boundary later tonight, as well as rather
bleak lapse rates that the models have had correctly all along.
Models are very split on timing and intensity...both prefrontal as
well as later tonight along the boundary. So much of this
afternoon/evening is highly contingent on a loss of the cap... or
something to turn the boundary layer over in the way of a small
outflow or the front itself. The window for surface based
convection this afternoon will be somewhat limited. That being
said, tonights pops will remain in the likely category as even
weak convergence at front should assist in showers and
thunderstorms, with potential for damaging winds and hail with the
more intense storms. SPC has maintained an Enhanced Risk for much
of Central IL tonight, even with the uncertainty.

Precip will likely run into tomorrow morning...slowly ending west
to east. Air behind the front is not that much cooler and
tomorrows highs are still expected in the upper 70s/lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Beyond Sunday and behind the front, that slightly cooler/drier
airmass will keep Central IL in the upper 70s/lower 80s and
overnight lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s on Monday and Tuesday.
Wednesday the surface flow turns around to more southerly at the
surface in a zonal regime aloft...similar to the pattern of last
week...with occasional precip chances and warming temperatures
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Convection has fired to the north and northwest this evening.
Timing some of the storms and anticipating for further development
at least through 06z in PIA SPI as well as a right moving trend
in the larger developing complexes, diving south into more
unstable air, if briefly. General use of VCTS throughout the night
in the rest of the sites as the weak front dives into the region.
Wind shift across the boundary is subtle to a more westerly... or
slightly north of westerly shift. Potential for lower cigs right
along and behind the boundary briefly towards dawn. Otherwise,
westerly winds and VFR tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...HJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>051-180730-
Cass-De Witt-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-
Morgan-Peoria-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
330 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening.
Current indications suggest the primary time frame for severe
weather will be roughly from 6 pm through 10 pm. Damaging winds,
large hail, isolated tornadoes, along with heavy rainfall, will be
possible with the storms before they shift rapidly to the
southeast later this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

The next chance for thunderstorms will be late Wednesday night
into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed late this afternoon through this
evening. The primary time frame will be from 6 pm until 10 pm.

ILZ044>046-052>057-061-062-066-180730-
Champaign-Christian-Coles-Cumberland-Douglas-Edgar-Effingham-
Macon-Moultrie-Piatt-Shelby-Vermilion-
330 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening.
The primary time frame for severe weather will be roughly from
8 pm until Midnight. Damaging winds, large hail, isolated
tornadoes, along with heavy rainfall will be possible with the
storms before they shift rapidly to the southeast of the area
around Midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A few thunderstorms may linger into early Sunday morning near the
Interstate 70 corridor. None of these storms are expected to be
severe.

The next chance for thunderstorms will be late Wednesday into
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening. At this time it
appears the primary time frame would be from 8 pm until Midnight.

ILZ063-067-068-071>073-180730-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
330 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms later tonight.
Current indications suggest the primary time frame for the strong
thunderstorms will be roughly from 10 pm through 2 am. Damaging
winds, large hail, along with heavy rainfall will be possible
with the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible into early Sunday
afternoon over parts of southeast Illinois. No severe weather
is expected.

The next chance for thunderstorms over southeast Illinois will be
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight, roughly from 10 pm
through 2 am.

Bak

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1109 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EUREKA                  40.72N 89.28W
06/17/2017  M4.02 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   PUBLIC

            RAIN FALL TOTAL SINCE 835 PM.

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1137 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WSW SPRINGFIELD       39.75N 89.75W
06/17/2017                   SANGAMON           IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWERLINES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1149 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S TOULON              41.05N 89.86W
06/17/2017                   STARK              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

0748 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WYOMING                 41.06N 89.77W
06/17/2017                   STARK              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN.

0758 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TOULON                  41.09N 89.86W
06/17/2017                   STARK              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY COUNTY ROADS FLOODED.

0758 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOULON                  41.09N 89.86W
06/17/2017                   STARK              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS COUNTY.

0805 PM     HEAVY RAIN       TOULON                  41.09N 89.86W
06/17/2017  M1.50 INCH       STARK              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR. NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED IN
            TOWN.

0815 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HENRY                   41.11N 89.36W
06/17/2017  M1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL IN 30 MINUTES.

0820 PM     TSTM WND GST     GERMANTOWN HILLS        40.77N 89.47W
06/17/2017  E60.00 MPH       WOODFORD           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW ROANOKE           40.85N 89.23W
06/17/2017                   WOODFORD           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NEAR 1820 N AND 1700 E...DETACHED GARAGE LEVELED...DAIRY
            BARN DAMAGED...18-20 INCH TREES BLOWN DOWN.

0835 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PEORIA                  40.74N 89.61W
06/17/2017                   PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ALLEN ROAD WEST OF HIGHWAY 6. STERLING AVE. NEAR
            NORTHWOODS MALL.

0845 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EUREKA                  40.72N 89.28W
06/17/2017  M1.25 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   PUBLIC

            RAIN FELL IN 15 MINUTES. NUMEROUS STREET FLOODING.

0845 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EUREKA                  40.72N 89.28W
06/17/2017  M2.05 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   PUBLIC

0855 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PEORIA                  40.74N 89.61W
06/17/2017                   PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NORTHWEST PORTION OF PEORIA CITY...VARIOUS LOCATIONS.

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEXINGTON               40.64N 88.78W
06/17/2017                   MCLEAN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN.

0915 PM     TSTM WND GST     LEXINGTON               40.64N 88.78W
06/17/2017  M75.00 MPH       MCLEAN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CHILLICOTHE             40.92N 89.50W
06/17/2017                   PEORIA             IL   PUBLIC

            BENEDICT STREET AND TRUITT AVE...PONDED WATER BETWEEN 6
            AND 10 INCHES DEEP

0945 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HENRY                   41.11N 89.36W
06/17/2017  M1.37 INCH       MARSHALL           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RAIN FELL IN ABOUT ONE HOUR AND A HALF. QUITE A BIT OF
            STREET FLOODING.

0946 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PEORIA                  40.74N 89.61W
06/17/2017                   PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AREA OF KNOXVILLE ROAD AND PIONEER PARKWAY. REPORTED 4 TO
            5 FEET OF WATER IN PARKING LOT.

1000 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GERMANTOWN HILLS        40.77N 89.47W
06/17/2017  M3.24 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   PUBLIC

            RAIN FELL IN ONE AND ONE HALF HOURS.

1000 PM     HAIL             BEARDSTOWN              40.01N 90.43W
06/17/2017  M1.00 INCH       CASS               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE MEREDOSIA          39.87N 90.50W
06/17/2017                   MORGAN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ILLINOIS ROUTE 67 ON THE MORGAN/CASS COUNTY LINE...SMALL
            TREES BLOWN DOWN.

1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RANTOUL                 40.30N 88.16W
06/17/2017                   CHAMPAIGN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            1500 BLOCK OF LOWREY...TREE BLOWN DOWN...FAR EAST SIDE OF
            TOWN.

1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RANTOUL                 40.30N 88.16W
06/17/2017                   CHAMPAIGN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREE BRANCHS DOWN WEST OF TOWN AROUND THE 600
            BLOCK. POWERLINE DOWN EAST SIDE OF TOWN.

1017 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NORMAL                  40.52N 89.00W
06/17/2017  M1.36 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 9 PM.

1020 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NORMAL                  40.52N 89.00W
06/17/2017                   MCLEAN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL OCCUPIED VEHICLES STUCK IN FLOODED STREETS
            BETWEEN ILLINOIS STATE UNIVERSITY AND UPTOWN NORMAL.

1030 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PEORIA                  40.74N 89.61W
06/17/2017  M3.90 INCH       PEORIA             IL   MESONET

            NEAR WILLOW KNOLLS AND WAR MEMORIAL DRIVE.

1030 PM     TSTM WND GST     POTOMAC                 40.31N 87.80W
06/17/2017  E60.00 MPH       VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

1035 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEXINGTON               40.64N 88.78W
06/17/2017                   MCLEAN             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS POWER POLES DOWN THROUGHOUT COUNTY.

1035 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NORMAL                  40.52N 89.00W
06/17/2017                   MCLEAN             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE CITY OF NORMAL...ONE WATER RESCUE
            WAS NEEDED.

1038 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PEORIA                  40.74N 89.61W
06/17/2017  M1.74 INCH       PEORIA             IL   MESONET

1052 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WSW SPRINGFIELD       39.75N 89.75W
06/17/2017                   SANGAMON           IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWERLINES BLOWN DOWN.

1108 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EUREKA                  40.72N 89.28W
06/17/2017  M4.02 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   PUBLIC

            RAIN FALL TOTAL SINCE 835 PM.

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1154 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     FLOOD            NORMAL                  40.52N 89.00W
06/17/2017                   MCLEAN             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY ROADWAYS IN NORMAL STILL FLOODED.

&&

JRP