Areal Flood Warning 17, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
853 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Clusters of strong/severe storms are expanding as a pair of MCS's
(one over northern Illinois and the other over Kansas/western
Missouri) start to converge. First cluster currently moving across
the northern CWA with another increasing across west central
Illinois. Areas south of I-70 will likely hold off on the
activity until midnight or later, but storms will continue to
march east-southeast across the remainder of the forecast area for
the next several hours.

General trends already in place with the gridded forecasts, but
will update the PoP trends to reflect the latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Cold front lingering to the NW this afternoon moving closer to the
region and will be driving tonights weather and into tomorrow.
Hot and muggy air in the boundary layer is in place over the
region. However, much of the anticipated convection is very
conditional on several elements. Surface based parcels with
dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70 result in a significant CAPE
close to 2000 J/kg on the 18z special sounding at ILX. However, a
slight alteration to the sounding, mixing those dewpoints a
bit...if only to how dry it is at 50ft AGL, results in a major
loss of CAPE and a far more substantial cap. Shear is delayed with
the wave aloft and the boundary later tonight, as well as rather
bleak lapse rates that the models have had correctly all along.
Models are very split on timing and intensity...both prefrontal as
well as later tonight along the boundary. So much of this
afternoon/evening is highly contingent on a loss of the cap... or
something to turn the boundary layer over in the way of a small
outflow or the front itself. The window for surface based
convection this afternoon will be somewhat limited. That being
said, tonights pops will remain in the likely category as even
weak convergence at front should assist in showers and
thunderstorms, with potential for damaging winds and hail with the
more intense storms. SPC has maintained an Enhanced Risk for much
of Central IL tonight, even with the uncertainty.

Precip will likely run into tomorrow morning...slowly ending west
to east. Air behind the front is not that much cooler and
tomorrows highs are still expected in the upper 70s/lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Beyond Sunday and behind the front, that slightly cooler/drier
airmass will keep Central IL in the upper 70s/lower 80s and
overnight lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s on Monday and Tuesday.
Wednesday the surface flow turns around to more southerly at the
surface in a zonal regime aloft...similar to the pattern of last
week...with occasional precip chances and warming temperatures
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Convection has fired to the north and northwest this evening.
Timing some of the storms and anticipating for further development
at least through 06z in PIA SPI as well as a right moving trend
in the larger developing complexes, diving south into more
unstable air, if briefly. General use of VCTS throughout the night
in the rest of the sites as the weak front dives into the region.
Wind shift across the boundary is subtle to a more westerly... or
slightly north of westerly shift. Potential for lower cigs right
along and behind the boundary briefly towards dawn. Otherwise,
westerly winds and VFR tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...HJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>051-180730-
Cass-De Witt-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-
Morgan-Peoria-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
330 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening.
Current indications suggest the primary time frame for severe
weather will be roughly from 6 pm through 10 pm. Damaging winds,
large hail, isolated tornadoes, along with heavy rainfall, will be
possible with the storms before they shift rapidly to the
southeast later this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

The next chance for thunderstorms will be late Wednesday night
into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed late this afternoon through this
evening. The primary time frame will be from 6 pm until 10 pm.

ILZ044>046-052>057-061-062-066-180730-
Champaign-Christian-Coles-Cumberland-Douglas-Edgar-Effingham-
Macon-Moultrie-Piatt-Shelby-Vermilion-
330 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening.
The primary time frame for severe weather will be roughly from
8 pm until Midnight. Damaging winds, large hail, isolated
tornadoes, along with heavy rainfall will be possible with the
storms before they shift rapidly to the southeast of the area
around Midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A few thunderstorms may linger into early Sunday morning near the
Interstate 70 corridor. None of these storms are expected to be
severe.

The next chance for thunderstorms will be late Wednesday into
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening. At this time it
appears the primary time frame would be from 8 pm until Midnight.

ILZ063-067-068-071>073-180730-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
330 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms later tonight.
Current indications suggest the primary time frame for the strong
thunderstorms will be roughly from 10 pm through 2 am. Damaging
winds, large hail, along with heavy rainfall will be possible
with the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible into early Sunday
afternoon over parts of southeast Illinois. No severe weather
is expected.

The next chance for thunderstorms over southeast Illinois will be
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight, roughly from 10 pm
through 2 am.

Bak

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1109 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EUREKA                  40.72N 89.28W
06/17/2017  M4.02 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   PUBLIC

            RAIN FALL TOTAL SINCE 835 PM.

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1137 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WSW SPRINGFIELD       39.75N 89.75W
06/17/2017                   SANGAMON           IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWERLINES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

JRP