Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
518 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 506 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Thunderstorms are continuing to develop and intensify across the
local area this afternoon. After coordination with surrounding
offices and the storm prediction center, a severe thunderstorm
watch is now in effect for much of the area through midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

The ingredients are in place for an active evening and
potentially overnight period across the local area today with
multiple rounds of convection possible.

With clear skies this morning and through the early afternoon
hours...instability was able to build and the CIN has mostly
eroded over the past couple of hours...which means only weak
forcing will likely be needed to get some explosive convection
initiated this evening...and with a surface trough tracking
across the western fringes of the local area this afternoon and
an upper level disturbance emerging out of the southwest
overnight...forcing should be no problem. In addition...with good
shear and instability values already present in the atmosphere...
expect the potential for organized convection with a few
supercells across the local area...capable of producing large hail
and strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Can also not rule out an
isolated tornado or two through the early evening hours as 0-6 KM
shear values upwards of 50KTs are forecast through around 06Z.

After the initial round of convection propagates northeastward
across the local area this evening...expect an additional round of
thunderstorms to potentially roll in from the west as convection
across the high plains gets enhanced by the approaching shortwave
out of the southwest. This should keep the radar active through
the early morning hours Wednesday...although the greatest
potential for significant severe thunderstorms appears to be over
the remainder of the afternoon hours through this evening.

As the surface and upper level low track across the heart of the
local area tomorrow...expect a mostly cloudy day with additional
chances for some showers and thunderstorms...although the severe
potential looks fairly low at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Expect multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms across the
local area through the extended periods as an upper level low
meanders across the intermountain west sending multiple impulses
across the local area from time to time. With relatively cooler
air in place across the region...expect instability and severe
thunderstorm chances to be somewhat limited with temperatures
hovering near to just below seasonal norms each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Plenty of uncertainty in the afternoon TAFs today. Expect showers
and thunderstorms to develop over the next couple of hours ahead
of an upper level wave across northeastern New Mexico. As these
storms propagate northeastward...expect mid level clouds to
increase with SHRA's and TSRA's overspreading much of the local
area by around 17/00Z. Winds ahead of this wave will generally be
out of the southwest...with multiple rounds of thunderstorms then
becoming possible during the evening and overnight hours. For the
time being...kept prevailing VFR conditions with a CB and a mention
of a VCTS through much of the time period...with chances tapering
off during the morning hours Wednesday. That said...expect MVFR
or lower CIGS/VSBYS...along with very gusty winds...with any
TSRAs that impact either terminal.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

UPDATE...Rossi
SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
322 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
172030-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
322 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the entire forecast area
this afternoon through tonight. At this time, the best chances
look to come after 6 PM, with the primary hazards being hail up
to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts near 70 MPH. In addition...
localized heavy rain and flooding, as well as an isolated
tornado, cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorm chances linger across the outlook area through
Wednesday, then intermittent thunderstorms are possible Thursday
through Friday night. Severe thunderstorms are not expected at
this time.

Another chance for thunderstorms returns next Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed late this afternoon
through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
440 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             EDGAR                   40.37N 97.97W
05/16/2017  E0.50 INCH       CLAY               NE   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL. TIME EST FM RADAR.

&&

KELLEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
458 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

NEZ087-162230-
Thayer NE-
458 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THAYER COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 457 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bruning to near Byron. Movement was
northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hebron, Deshler, Chester, Alexandria, Byron, Hubbell, Belvidere and
Gilead.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9738 4000 9782 4010 9782 4034 9753
      4035 9747 4035 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 220DEG 12KT 4032 9748 3996 9779

Fay

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
506 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     TORNADO          3 NE EXETER             40.67N 97.42W
05/16/2017                   FILLMORE           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF LANDSPOUT.

&&

KELLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
510 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             PORTIS                  39.56N 98.69W
05/16/2017  E1.00 INCH       OSBORNE            KS   911 CALL CENTER

            PENNY UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

&&

KELLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
518 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     TORNADO          3 NE EXETER             40.67N 97.42W
05/16/2017                   FILLMORE           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTED TO CHANGE FROM LANDSPOUT TO
            GUSTNADO AFTER REVIEWING VIDEO. FUNNEL WAS
            ONLY PARTIALLY VSBL FROM DUST. THE UPPER
            PORTION OF THE FUNNEL DID NOT CONNECT TO
            CLOUD BASE, BUT MAY NOT HAVE BEEN FULLY
            VSBL.

&&

KELLEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
527 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

NEZ087-162300-
Thayer NE-
527 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL THAYER COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM CDT...

At 527 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hebron, or 22 miles north of Belleville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hebron, Deshler, Bruning, Carleton and Belvidere.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4004 9761 4006 9782 4023 9781 4034 9773
      4034 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 212DEG 25KT 4015 9764

Fay