Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Hastings, NE

865 
WWUS53 KGID 160025
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
725 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

NEC065-083-160100-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-170516T0100Z/
Furnas NE-Harlan NE-
725 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN FURNAS AND WESTERN HARLAN COUNTIES...

At 725 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stamford, or 24
miles southwest of Holdrege, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City, Orleans, Stamford, Edison and
Hollinger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 9989 4035 9961 4030 9946 4000 9945
      4000 9988 4026 9998
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 229DEG 42KT 4016 9965 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Mangels

848 
WWUS53 KGID 160049
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
749 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

NEC065-160058-
/O.CAN.KGID.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-170516T0100Z/
Furnas NE-
749 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN FURNAS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central Kansas...and south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4035 9963 4035 9961 4030 9946 4000 9945
      4000 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 229DEG 38KT 4032 9940 

$$

NEC083-160100-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-170516T0100Z/
Harlan NE-
749 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN HARLAN COUNTY...

At 748 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Atlanta, or 8
miles south of Holdrege, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Oxford, Orleans and Stamford. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 9963 4035 9961 4030 9946 4000 9945
      4000 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 229DEG 38KT 4032 9940 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Mangels

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
231 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

Main story in the short term is the threat for thunderstorms this
evening/overnight and again Tuesday evening.

Currently, a warm front is draped across central Nebraska and
gradually lifting northward, aided by gusty southerly winds. The
rest of this afternoon, a few sprinkles or light showers are
possible, but there is enough inhibition that any thunderstorms
should until around 6pm.

This evening, a subtle midlevel shortwave will provide just enough
of a trigger for thunderstorms to initiate across the high plains
and move into the area. MUCAPE values of 2000 j/kg and around 30
kts of bulk shear will be supportive of strong to severe
thunderstorms. Quarter size hail and up to 60 MPH gusts are the
threats.

A 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast to develop between 03Z and 06Z,
which will likely maintain a line of convection into the overnight.
At this point, I would expect more of a wind threat. Short-term
models all move convection out of the area by Tuesday morning,
giving us a brief break before the next round of thunderstorms
(possibly severe) develops late Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Breezy south winds will continue overnight into Tuesday, allowing
MUCAPE values to reach as high as 4000 J/kg across KS late tomorrow
afternoon. A stronger upper level wave will result in higher shear
on Tuesday than what we will see today. For this reason, I believe
that Tuesday's severe threat will be a bit better than today. As
such, SPC has updated the Day 2 outlook to "enhanced" south a line
from Phillipsburg to Hebron. I don't plan on making any changes to
the HWO at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

Tuesday night, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing, although the
severe threat will gradually taper off overnight into Wednesday
morning. Chances for thunder continue into Wednesday as the first
of two upper lows moves into Nebraska. That said, the severe
threat looks quite low at this time. Temperatures on Wednesday
will be markedly cooler, with highs only reaching the 70s.

Wednesday night should be primarily dry, but chances for rain return
on Thursday as the next upper low slowly inches towards the area.
The threat for thunder looks like it will be primarily confined
to southern and eastern areas of the CWA.

This wave will take its time moving through the region, which will
result in chances for rain through Saturday and high temperatures
only in the 50s and 60s.

The model blend only gives us a brief break in rain chances Sunday,
and it appears that the active pattern will continue into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

Southerly winds expected to increase this afternoon. Expect gusts
around 20-25 kts to continue into the evening. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to move through the area this evening
into tonight. This cluster of storms will likely be maintained by
an intensifying low-level jet. This jet will also likely get us to
LLWS criteria. This is a little dependent on how strong the
surface winds stay overnight, but I went ahead and included it
from 03-12Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
252 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
161200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
252 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible after 6pm for much of the outlook
area. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with hail
around the size of quarters and wind gusts around 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible again late Tuesday afternoon
through the overnight across the entire outlook area. The best
chances for severe weather look to come between 5 PM and midnight.
The primary hazards are hail to size of golf balls, damaging wind
gusts near 60 MPH, and locally heavy rain.

Thunderstorm chances linger through Wednesday and Thursday, but
severe weather isn't expected at this time.

Another chance for thunderstorms arrives Sunday into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Mangels

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
655 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

KSZ005-NEZ082-083-160045-
Phillips KS-Harlan NE-Furnas NE-
655 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PHILLIPS...FURNAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wilsonville to 12 miles northeast of
Norcatur to near Norton. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City, Holbrook, Stamford, Long Island,
Prairie View, Edison, Wilsonville, Hendley, Hollinger and Woodruff.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central Kansas...and south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4019 10020 4035 10002 4035 9991 4027 9954
      3984 9935 3976 9963 4000 9963 4000 10019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 229DEG 39KT 4011 10016 3991 9997 3978 9989

Wesely