Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Hastings, NE

833 
WWUS53 KGID 160053
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
753 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

NEC083-137-160115-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-170516T0115Z/
Phelps NE-Harlan NE-
753 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR PHELPS AND HARLAN COUNTIES...

At 752 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Atlanta, or
near Holdrege, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters reported up to quarter size hail 
         in Oxford at 737 PM. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Holdrege, Alma, Oxford, Orleans, Loomis, Funk, Stamford, Republican
City, Atlanta, Huntley, Ragan and Harlan County Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 9963 4048 9957 4067 9946 4062 9918
      4000 9918 4000 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 226DEG 37KT 4036 9939 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Mangels

371 
WWUS53 KGID 160106 RRA
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
806 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

NEC083-137-160115-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-170516T0115Z/
Phelps NE-Harlan NE-
806 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN PHELPS AND HARLAN COUNTIES...

At 805 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Funk, or near 
Holdrege, moving northeast at 45 mph. Another severe thunderstorm 
was located south of Orleans, moving northeast at 45 mph. 

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Holdrege, Alma, Orleans, Funk, Republican City, Atlanta, Huntley,
Ragan and Harlan County Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4027 9951 4044 9944 4065 9932 4062 9918
      4000 9918 4000 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 226DEG 37KT 4045 9927 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Mangels

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
720 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

Main story in the short term is the threat for thunderstorms this
evening/overnight and again Tuesday evening.

Currently, a warm front is draped across central Nebraska and
gradually lifting northward, aided by gusty southerly winds. The
rest of this afternoon, a few sprinkles or light showers are
possible, but there is enough inhibition that any thunderstorms
should until around 6pm.

This evening, a subtle midlevel shortwave will provide just enough
of a trigger for thunderstorms to initiate across the high plains
and move into the area. MUCAPE values of 2000 j/kg and around 30
kts of bulk shear will be supportive of strong to severe
thunderstorms. Quarter size hail and up to 60 MPH gusts are the
threats.

A 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast to develop between 03Z and 06Z,
which will likely maintain a line of convection into the overnight.
At this point, I would expect more of a wind threat. Short-term
models all move convection out of the area by Tuesday morning,
giving us a brief break before the next round of thunderstorms
(possibly severe) develops late Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Breezy south winds will continue overnight into Tuesday, allowing
MUCAPE values to reach as high as 4000 J/kg across KS late tomorrow
afternoon. A stronger upper level wave will result in higher shear
on Tuesday than what we will see today. For this reason, I believe
that Tuesday's severe threat will be a bit better than today. As
such, SPC has updated the Day 2 outlook to "enhanced" south a line
from Phillipsburg to Hebron. I don't plan on making any changes to
the HWO at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

Tuesday night, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing, although the
severe threat will gradually taper off overnight into Wednesday
morning. Chances for thunder continue into Wednesday as the first
of two upper lows moves into Nebraska. That said, the severe
threat looks quite low at this time. Temperatures on Wednesday
will be markedly cooler, with highs only reaching the 70s.

Wednesday night should be primarily dry, but chances for rain return
on Thursday as the next upper low slowly inches towards the area.
The threat for thunder looks like it will be primarily confined
to southern and eastern areas of the CWA.

This wave will take its time moving through the region, which will
result in chances for rain through Saturday and high temperatures
only in the 50s and 60s.

The model blend only gives us a brief break in rain chances Sunday,
and it appears that the active pattern will continue into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 715 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

The primary aviation concern will center around scattered strong
to severe thunderstorms that will spread northeast out of Kansas
and into South central Nebraska this evening. These storms may be
near KEAR by 02Z/9PM CDT and near GRI shortly thereafter. Will
refine the TAF with new updates based on storm track/motion as
these storms develop and approach the area. Storms should be on
their way out by 1AM CDT if not a little sooner with a decreasing
chance of storms as we head towards dawn.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Wesely

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
252 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
161200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
252 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible after 6pm for much of the outlook
area. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with hail
around the size of quarters and wind gusts around 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible again late Tuesday afternoon
through the overnight across the entire outlook area. The best
chances for severe weather look to come between 5 PM and midnight.
The primary hazards are hail to size of golf balls, damaging wind
gusts near 60 MPH, and locally heavy rain.

Thunderstorm chances linger through Wednesday and Thursday, but
severe weather isn't expected at this time.

Another chance for thunderstorms arrives Sunday into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Mangels

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
655 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

KSZ005-NEZ082-083-160045-
Phillips KS-Harlan NE-Furnas NE-
655 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PHILLIPS...FURNAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wilsonville to 12 miles northeast of
Norcatur to near Norton. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City, Holbrook, Stamford, Long Island,
Prairie View, Edison, Wilsonville, Hendley, Hollinger and Woodruff.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central Kansas...and south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4019 10020 4035 10002 4035 9991 4027 9954
      3984 9935 3976 9963 4000 9963 4000 10019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 229DEG 39KT 4011 10016 3991 9997 3978 9989

Wesely

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
730 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

KSZ005-160115-
Phillips KS-
730 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM CDT...

At 730 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Long Island, or 16 miles east of Norton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Prairie View, Long Island and Woodruff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 4000 9962 4000 9907 3991 9907 3971 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 245DEG 28KT 3990 9959

Mangels