Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
720 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

Main story in the short term is the threat for thunderstorms this
evening/overnight and again Tuesday evening.

Currently, a warm front is draped across central Nebraska and
gradually lifting northward, aided by gusty southerly winds. The
rest of this afternoon, a few sprinkles or light showers are
possible, but there is enough inhibition that any thunderstorms
should until around 6pm.

This evening, a subtle midlevel shortwave will provide just enough
of a trigger for thunderstorms to initiate across the high plains
and move into the area. MUCAPE values of 2000 j/kg and around 30
kts of bulk shear will be supportive of strong to severe
thunderstorms. Quarter size hail and up to 60 MPH gusts are the
threats.

A 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast to develop between 03Z and 06Z,
which will likely maintain a line of convection into the overnight.
At this point, I would expect more of a wind threat. Short-term
models all move convection out of the area by Tuesday morning,
giving us a brief break before the next round of thunderstorms
(possibly severe) develops late Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Breezy south winds will continue overnight into Tuesday, allowing
MUCAPE values to reach as high as 4000 J/kg across KS late tomorrow
afternoon. A stronger upper level wave will result in higher shear
on Tuesday than what we will see today. For this reason, I believe
that Tuesday's severe threat will be a bit better than today. As
such, SPC has updated the Day 2 outlook to "enhanced" south a line
from Phillipsburg to Hebron. I don't plan on making any changes to
the HWO at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

Tuesday night, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing, although the
severe threat will gradually taper off overnight into Wednesday
morning. Chances for thunder continue into Wednesday as the first
of two upper lows moves into Nebraska. That said, the severe
threat looks quite low at this time. Temperatures on Wednesday
will be markedly cooler, with highs only reaching the 70s.

Wednesday night should be primarily dry, but chances for rain return
on Thursday as the next upper low slowly inches towards the area.
The threat for thunder looks like it will be primarily confined
to southern and eastern areas of the CWA.

This wave will take its time moving through the region, which will
result in chances for rain through Saturday and high temperatures
only in the 50s and 60s.

The model blend only gives us a brief break in rain chances Sunday,
and it appears that the active pattern will continue into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 715 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

The primary aviation concern will center around scattered strong
to severe thunderstorms that will spread northeast out of Kansas
and into South central Nebraska this evening. These storms may be
near KEAR by 02Z/9PM CDT and near GRI shortly thereafter. Will
refine the TAF with new updates based on storm track/motion as
these storms develop and approach the area. Storms should be on
their way out by 1AM CDT if not a little sooner with a decreasing
chance of storms as we head towards dawn.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Wesely

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
252 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
161200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
252 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible after 6pm for much of the outlook
area. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with hail
around the size of quarters and wind gusts around 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible again late Tuesday afternoon
through the overnight across the entire outlook area. The best
chances for severe weather look to come between 5 PM and midnight.
The primary hazards are hail to size of golf balls, damaging wind
gusts near 60 MPH, and locally heavy rain.

Thunderstorm chances linger through Wednesday and Thursday, but
severe weather isn't expected at this time.

Another chance for thunderstorms arrives Sunday into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Mangels

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
825 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

NEZ082-160200-
Furnas NE-
825 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FURNAS COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 825 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hendley, or 14 miles north of Norton, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

People in Furnas County should monitor the weather situation closely.
Be ready to seek shelter if these storms threaten the area.

LAT...LON 4035 9968 4035 9963 4000 9963 4000 10012
      4009 10017
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 233DEG 38KT 4004 9993

Mangels

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
840 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

NEZ061-062-160230-
Buffalo NE-Hall NE-
840 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO AND HALL
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 839 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Heartwell, or 12 miles east of Kearney, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Island, Gibbon, Wood River, Shelton and Alda.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 278 and 317.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central and central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4081 9828 4066 9887 4065 9901 4072 9897
      4105 9842 4105 9828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 237DEG 34KT 4064 9886

Wesely

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>