Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS La Crosse, WI

527 
WWUS53 KARX 170156
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
856 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

WIC011-121-170230-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-170517T0230Z/
Buffalo WI-Trempealeau WI-
856 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN BUFFALO AND NORTHWESTERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

At 855 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Strum, or 8 miles southeast of Mondovi, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Strum around 910 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Eleva,
Gilmanton, Montana, Chimney Rock and Mondovi Airfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for west central
Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4460 9140 4439 9135 4431 9185 4460 9189
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 258DEG 25KT 4451 9152 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CA

709 
WWUS53 KARX 170219
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
919 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

WIC011-121-170230-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-170517T0230Z/
Buffalo WI-Trempealeau WI-
919 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN BUFFALO AND NORTHWESTERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

At 919 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Alma to 7 miles north of Modena, moving east at
45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

These severe storms will be near...
  Mondovi around 930 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Eleva,
Gilmanton, Montana, Chimney Rock and Mondovi Airfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for west central
Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4460 9140 4439 9135 4431 9185 4460 9189
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 248DEG 39KT 4433 9184 4455 9182 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
630 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

All eyes on thunderstorm chances/severe potential tonight through
Wednesday. Some scattered thunderstorms will continue late this
afternoon and evening generally across the northwest third of the
forecast area where the CAP is weaker within plume of 1000 to 2500
J/kg of MLCAPE. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

Of greater concern will be late this evening and overnight as a
leading short-wave lifts northeastward across central MN into
northwest WI. Models in reasonable agreement showing a nocturnal
convective complex develop with this wave, impacting northeast IA,
southeast MN, and north central WI. When combined with strong
mid-level moisture advection along a strengthening low-level jet
and PWATs near 1.5 inches (2-3 standard deviations above normal),
expect periods of heavy rain. Flooding, including river flooding
and flash flooding are possible, especially for those areas across
southeast MN that received 2-5 inches of rain last night. As a
result, will issue a Flash Flood Watch for southeast MN and
Buffalo/Trempealeau Counties in WI from 02-12Z late this evening
and overnight where 1-3 inches (locally more) of rain are
possible. See hydrology discussion below for additional details.
Outside of the heavy rain threat, instability/shear profiles still
support large hail and damaging winds as well.

For Wednesday, the cut-off closed low across AZ will eject
northeastward and near the NE/SD/IA border by 00Z Thursday. Strong
deep layer shear will accompany this wave, although instability is
still in question as the warm sector looks quite messy with the
potential for substantial cloud cloud. If higher instability can
be realized, strong to severe storms are once again possible for
much of the area. With no real change in air mass, additional
heavy rainfall is also possible, but will address that issue and
possible headlines after tonight's convection.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Thursday still looking mostly dry with short-wave ridging aloft.
That said, it will be cloudy and cool with a brisk north-northwest
wind. Temperatures only expected to reach the mid 50s to mid 60s
for most places. Shower chances return Friday as a weak short-wave
attempts to undercut the ridge, but with instability well south of
the area, not expecting any thunder at this time. Unseasonably
cool, cloudy conditions will continue with highs in the 50s.

Friday night through Tuesday, the main concern will be a strong
upper-level low moving through the Northern Plains region. There
are only minor differences on the placement of the attendant
surface low between the GFS and ECMWF, and both bring the center
of the surface low generally over our area. This should bring a
prolonged period of rain showers and below normal temperatures to
our area this weekend. The bulk of the rain looks to fall on
Saturday, with the system departing by late Sunday. We will remain
in an active pattern into next week, with another shortwave
swinging down from Canada late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

A warm front, along with bits of upper level energy/shortwave trough
will work together to produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms
tonight through Wed. Meso models and current radar trends favor
keeping KRST/KLSE dry for the early part of the evening - and
potential dry through the night for KLSE. Expect another round for
Wed morning but KLSE again could favor dry conditions until later in
the day Wed. KRST is closer to the "action" and will have a higher
threat for shra/ts through the forecast period. While mostly VFR,
see some potential for MVFR cigs late overnight into Wed morning.
Expect vsby restrictions with any thunderstorm.

 &&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

A swath of 2-5 inches of rain fell last night across portions of
southeast MN from north of Dodge Center and Rochester through much
of Winona County and into northern Houston County. Smaller rivers
and streams responded rapidly to this rainfall with some localized
flooding. An additional 1-3 inches (possibly more) are possible
late this evening and overnight as another convective complex
moves across the region. With wet soils and elevated water levels
from last night, any additional rainfall may result in flash
flooding and/or river flooding. As a result, a Flash Flood Watch
is in effect tonight for southeast MN into portions of north-
central WI.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for WIZ032-033.

MN...Flash Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rogers
LONG TERM...Rogers/Hollan
AVIATION...Rieck
HYDROLOGY...Rogers

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
438 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-033-172145-
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Buffalo-
Trempealeau-
438 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect tonight across southeast
Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Thunderstorms moving through
tonight may produce 1-3 inches of rain. Locally higher amounts are
possible for areas that see repeated strong thunderstorms. This
heavier rainfall may result in flash flooding and river flooding.

In addition, thunderstorms late this afternoon through tonight
could be strong to severe, capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday into Wednesday evening. A
few storms Wednesday afternoon and evening could be strong to
severe, capable of producing hail, gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

Another round of widespread rain looks to spread across the area
Friday into Saturday night, with amounts of 3/4 inch to locally 2
inches appearing likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this evening. Severe
weather reports, including heavy rainfall and flooding are
appreciated through tonight.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-WIZ034-041>044-053>055-061-172145-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-
Richland-Grant-
438 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible through tonight across northeast Iowa
and southwest into central Wisconsin. Some storms may be strong
to possibly severe with large hail, damaging winds, and locally
heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday into Wednesday evening. A
few storms Wednesday afternoon and evening could be strong to
severe, capable of producing hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy
rainfall.

Another round of widespread rain looks to spread across the area
Friday into Saturday night, with amounts of 3/4 inch to locally 2
inches appearing likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this evening. Severe
weather reports, including heavy rainfall are appreciated through
tonight.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

WIZ017-029-172145-
Taylor-Clark-
438 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of north central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon into Tonight

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 pm this evening.

Thunderstorms are likely through tonight across north central
Wisconsin. Some storms may be severe with large hail, damaging
winds, isolated tornadoes, and locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday into Wednesday evening. A
few storms Wednesday afternoon and evening could be strong to
severe, capable of producing hail and gusty winds. Locally heavy
rains remain possible as well.

Another round of widespread rain looks to spread across the area
Friday into Saturday night, with amounts of 3/4 inch to locally 2
inches appearing likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening. Severe
weather reports, including heavy rainfall are appreciated through
tonight.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

DAS/Rogers

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
417 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

MNZ079-087-088-WIZ032-033-162215-
Wabasha-Olmsted-Winona-Buffalo-Trempealeau-
417 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WINONA...CENTRAL
OLMSTED...WABASHA...BUFFALO AND NORTHERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

At 412 PM CDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms was located over
eastern Olmsted and southern Wabasha counties in southeast
Minnesota. These thunderstorms are moving northeast at 50 mph and
they will be capable of producing hail up to 1 inch in diameter and
wind gusts up to 40 mph.

These storm will be near...

Plainview around 425 PM CDT.

Wabasha, Kellogg, Buffalo City and Buffalo around 440 PM CDT.

Alma around 445 PM CDT.

Mondovi around 510 PM CDT and Strum around 515 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Marion, Douglas,
Eleva, Viola and Waumandee.

LAT...LON 4419 9255 4437 9255 4437 9243 4445 9243
      4445 9224 4441 9208 4456 9204 4460 9200
      4459 9117 4437 9117 4388 9228 4419 9266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 233DEG 43KT 4412 9238

JSB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
609 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

WIZ017-170115-
Taylor-
Including the city of Medford
609 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

...Strong to Severe Storms Early This Evening...

Storms continued to develop to the west, strengthening and quickly
moving east. Some of the storms are strong to severe, producing
large hail with the potential for wind gusts in excess of 45 mph.
Some of these storms have a history of tornadoes.

If a storm nears your area, take shelter indoors.

Rieck

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
701 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

MNZ079-WIZ032>034-170215-
Wabasha-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-
Including the cities of Wabasha, Alma, Arcadia, Whitehall,
and Black River Falls
701 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

...Strong Storms Into Mid Evening...

Storms continued to develop to the west, strengthening and quickly
moving east. Some of the storms are strong to severe, producing
large hail with the potential for wind gusts in excess of 45 mph.
Some of these storms have a history of tornadoes.

The higher threat for the storms will lie north of a Zumbro Falls
Minnesota to Black River Falls Wisconsin line through 9 pm.

If a storm nears your area, take shelter indoors.

Rieck

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
726 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     HAIL             JUMP RIVER              45.36N 90.80W
05/16/2017  E1.00 INCH       TAYLOR             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND SMALL BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

CJA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
804 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             MONDOVI                 44.56N 91.67W
05/16/2017  E0.50 INCH       BUFFALO            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

CJA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
826 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     HAIL             MAZEPPA                 44.27N 92.54W
05/16/2017  E0.25 INCH       WABASHA            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CJA