Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strong heating/instability has developed across portions of
northeast Oklahoma this afternoon where scattered strong
thunderstorms have developed. Deep layer shear remains minimal at
best but a few pulse storms could produce marginally severe
hail/damaging winds through the afternoon hours. Storms
developing well west of the area this afternoon will likely remain
so with only a slight chance for thunderstorms overnight.

Unsettled weather pattern will continue for the next several days
as several upper waves traverse the area with a moist/unstable
air-mass in place. Stronger upper disturbance shifts into the
southern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread
showers/thunderstorms likely along/ahead of approaching cold
front. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to
some localized flash flooding.

Models have trended a little slower with speed/progression of
cold front, which is now forecast to stall near the ARKLATX
region Thursday into Friday. Shower/thunderstorm chances will
likely persist across portions of southeast Oklahoma and west-
central Arkansas during this time as a developing upper low moves
into northern/central Texas. Exact track of upper low will
determine how quickly precipitation shifts south of the region
by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  83  67  82 /  20  30  30  60
FSM   66  85  66  85 /  20  30  30  40
MLC   64  84  66  84 /  20  30  30  50
BVO   62  82  64  81 /  20  30  30  60
FYV   60  82  61  81 /  20  30  30  40
BYV   62  82  63  81 /  20  30  30  40
MKO   64  82  63  83 /  20  30  30  60
MIO   62  84  64  83 /  20  30  30  60
F10   65  82  65  83 /  20  30  30  60
HHW   66  85  66  83 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1125 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL SUPPORT A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
341 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ054-060-292115-
TULSA OK-OSAGE OK-
341 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND NORTHERN
TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 341 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SKIATOOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
SKIATOOK...

LAT...LON 3624 9611 3631 9625 3648 9610 3636 9591
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 224DEG 8KT 3632 9611

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
428 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HAIL             FAIRFAX                 36.57N 96.70W
05/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              OK   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

&&

AEJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
428 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ054-055-292200-
WASHINGTON OK-OSAGE OK-
428 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 428 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF
AVANT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
RAMONA...                         AVANT...
VERA...                           WOLCO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 9584 3652 9581 3645 9581 3642 9589
      3642 9600 3638 9600 3649 9620
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 062DEG 5KT 3649 9599

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
437 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             6 W SPERRY              36.30N 96.10W
05/29/2016  E1.50 INCH       OSAGE              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL NEAR ZINK RANCH IN SOUTHEAST OSAGE COUNTY.

&&

AEJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
449 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ076-292215-
LE FLORE OK-
449 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY
UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 448 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MOUNTAIN FORK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
OCTAVIA...

LAT...LON 3456 9481 3469 9446 3452 9446 3451 9447
      3451 9482
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 250DEG 12KT 3458 9453