Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
622 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Monday afternoon,
with the potential for brief MVFR or lower conditions should a
storm affect a terminal.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong heating/instability has developed across portions of
northeast Oklahoma this afternoon where scattered strong
thunderstorms have developed. Deep layer shear remains minimal at
best but a few pulse storms could produce marginally severe
hail/damaging winds through the afternoon hours. Storms
developing well west of the area this afternoon will likely remain
so with only a slight chance for thunderstorms overnight.

Unsettled weather pattern will continue for the next several days
as several upper waves traverse the area with a moist/unstable
air-mass in place. Stronger upper disturbance shifts into the
southern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread
showers/thunderstorms likely along/ahead of approaching cold
front. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to
some localized flash flooding.

Models have trended a little slower with speed/progression of
cold front, which is now forecast to stall near the ARKLATX
region Thursday into Friday. Shower/thunderstorm chances will
likely persist across portions of southeast Oklahoma and west-
central Arkansas during this time as a developing upper low moves
into northern/central Texas. Exact track of upper low will
determine how quickly precipitation shifts south of the region
by the weekend.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
456 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
541 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ062-063-068-292315-
CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-
541 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAYES...SOUTHWESTERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 541 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROSE...MOVING
EAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
LOCUST GROVE...                   OAKS...
LEACH...                          ROSE...
PEGGS...                          SPORTSMEN ACRES COMMUNITY...

LAT...LON 3614 9481 3613 9480 3602 9514 3622 9528
      3630 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 252DEG 6KT 3618 9503

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
546 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             BROKEN ARROW            36.05N 95.79W
05/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            51ST AND LYNN LANE

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
551 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             BROKEN ARROW            36.05N 95.79W
05/29/2016  E0.88 INCH       TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

AEJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
553 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ062-292330-
MAYES OK-
553 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MAYES COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

AT 553 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PRYOR CREEK...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
PRYOR...                          PRYOR CREEK...
SPORTSMEN ACRES COMMUNITY...

LAT...LON 3636 9519 3620 9528 3622 9544 3625 9544
      3625 9543 3635 9544 3637 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 305DEG 5KT 3629 9537

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             3 NE BROKEN ARROW       36.08N 95.75W
05/29/2016  E0.50 INCH       WAGONER            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            41ST STREET SOUTH AND 193RD EAST AVE

&&

AEJ

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