Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
628 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms may expand in coverage some this
morning...primarily impacting KMLC and possibly KTUL/KRVS.
Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys likely in and near storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Convective complex moving across north central Texas will limit
warm advection/moisture return into eastern OK this morning. Most
of the operations models have had a poor handle on these storms,
though the HRRR in last couple of runs has finally acknowledged
their presence and, as such, has given up on the idea of a
developing complex in western Kansas that would impact parts of
the area later today. A few elevated cells trying to develop on
north flank and may see this move into southeast OK early this
morning. Probability of additional storms this afternoon will be
dependent on the eventual fate of north Texas complex, which most
guidance tends to weaken later this morning, but this is far from
a given at this point. Overall, the highest chance still appears
to be over the western half of the forecast area through tonight.

Additional weak and subtle forcing for convection remains in
play through Monday before an upper trough swings through the
northern plains and a more substantial jet streak lifts out of
Mexico into the southern plains by Tuesday into Wednesday. This
period will offer the highest chance of precip with the attendant
threat of heavy rainfall in some areas. Frontal boundary will
bring a drier and cooler airmass to the area by Thursday with
precip chances ending and below normal temperatures to end the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  66  84  66 /  30  30  40  30
FSM   88  67  85  67 /  30  20  40  30
MLC   85  66  84  67 /  40  30  40  30
BVO   85  63  83  64 /  30  30  40  30
FYV   84  62  82  63 /  20  20  40  30
BYV   85  62  83  62 /  20  20  40  30
MKO   84  65  83  66 /  40  30  40  30
MIO   84  63  85  65 /  20  20  40  30
F10   83  65  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
HHW   86  68  86  67 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
454 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
454 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ITS POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY
MAY INCREASE SOME IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNALS THAT A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP IN PARTS OF KANSAS TODAY AND TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS A RATHER
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY TO MID
WEEK BEFORE A MORE DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
444 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ073-291030-
PITTSBURG OK-
444 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG COUNTY
UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

AT 444 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
STUART...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
MCALESTER...                      KREBS...
SAVANNA...                        ALDERSON...
ASHLAND...                        HAYWOOD...
SCIPIO...                         BACHE...
DOW...                            ARPELAR...

LAT...LON 3499 9609 3518 9585 3487 9559 3470 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0944Z 237DEG 23KT 3485 9609

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
532 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ073-075-291115-
PITTSBURG OK-LATIMER OK-
532 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PITTSBURG AND
NORTHWESTERN LATIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

AT 532 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER KREBS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
MCALESTER...                      HARTSHORNE...
KREBS...                          CROWDER...
ALDERSON...                       CANADIAN...
ARROWHEAD STATE PARK...           BLOCKER...
HAILEYVILLE...                    GOWEN...
BACHE...                          DOW...
FEATHERSTON...

LAT...LON 3523 9559 3487 9533 3480 9578 3494 9591
TIME...MOT...LOC 1032Z 243DEG 17KT 3492 9570

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
606 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ073>075-291145-
PITTSBURG OK-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
606 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PITTSBURG...NORTHERN
LATIMER AND SOUTH CENTRAL HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

AT 606 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ROBBERS CAVE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
WILBURTON...                      RED OAK...
KINTA...                          LEQUIRE...
ROBBERS CAVE STATE PARK...        LEWISVILLE...
PANOLA...

LAT...LON 3505 9551 3523 9502 3494 9493 3494 9500
      3492 9500 3489 9545
TIME...MOT...LOC 1106Z 253DEG 23KT 3497 9539

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