Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strong heating/instability has developed across portions of
northeast Oklahoma this afternoon where scattered strong
thunderstorms have developed. Deep layer shear remains minimal at
best but a few pulse storms could produce marginally severe
hail/damaging winds through the afternoon hours. Storms
developing well west of the area this afternoon will likely remain
so with only a slight chance for thunderstorms overnight.

Unsettled weather pattern will continue for the next several days
as several upper waves traverse the area with a moist/unstable
air-mass in place. Stronger upper disturbance shifts into the
southern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread
showers/thunderstorms likely along/ahead of approaching cold
front. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to
some localized flash flooding.

Models have trended a little slower with speed/progression of
cold front, which is now forecast to stall near the ARKLATX
region Thursday into Friday. Shower/thunderstorm chances will
likely persist across portions of southeast Oklahoma and west-
central Arkansas during this time as a developing upper low moves
into northern/central Texas. Exact track of upper low will
determine how quickly precipitation shifts south of the region
by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  83  67  82 /  20  30  30  60
FSM   66  85  66  85 /  20  30  30  40
MLC   64  84  66  84 /  20  30  30  50
BVO   62  82  64  81 /  20  30  30  60
FYV   60  82  61  81 /  20  30  30  40
BYV   62  82  63  81 /  20  30  30  40
MKO   64  82  63  83 /  20  30  30  60
MIO   62  84  64  83 /  20  30  30  60
F10   65  82  65  83 /  20  30  30  60
HHW   66  85  66  83 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1125 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL SUPPORT A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1118 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ054-291700-
OSAGE OK-
1118 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
NOON CDT...

AT 1117 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
PEARSONIA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3700 9632 3680 9639 3681 9651 3700 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 190DEG 14KT 3687 9645

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ064-066-291700-
CREEK OK-OKMULGEE OK-
1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CREEK COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 1129 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SLICK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
MOUNDS...                         SLICK...

LAT...LON 3595 9618 3588 9606 3572 9619 3576 9627
TIME...MOT...LOC 1629Z 208DEG 17KT 3580 9620

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ054-055-291745-
WASHINGTON OK-OSAGE OK-
1205 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1205 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF ELGIN TO 3 MILES EAST OF BIGHEART.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
ELGIN...                          HULAH...
BIGHEART...                       WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK...

LAT...LON 3700 9589 3679 9615 3700 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 237DEG 14KT 3701 9638 3686 9615

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
146 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ054-291930-
OSAGE OK-
146 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM
CDT...

AT 146 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST
OF HOMINY...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
PAWHUSKA...                       HOMINY...
WYNONA...                         PERSHING...
NELAGONEY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3638 9634 3642 9656 3672 9653 3666 9617
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 193DEG 13KT 3647 9643

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
207 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ060-061-291945-
ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-
207 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS AND
NORTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 207 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
CATOOSA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
NORTHEASTERN TULSA...             CLAREMORE...
OWASSO...                         CATOOSA...
COLLINSVILLE...                   VERDIGRIS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 231 AND 250.

LAT...LON 3635 9554 3616 9567 3616 9576 3613 9576
      3615 9586 3641 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 193DEG 13KT 3620 9577

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ054-292000-
OSAGE OK-
220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

AT 219 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST OF FAIRFAX TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BLACKBURN. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
PAWHUSKA...                       WYNONA...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3681 9629 3644 9629 3642 9661 3660 9661
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 229DEG 8KT 3655 9652 3647 9654