Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 29, 2016Cherokee County, Delaware County, Mayes County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 29, 2016, 5:49 PM CDT for Cherokee County, Delaware County, Mayes County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 29, 2016, 5:49 PM CDT (22:49 UTC)
Expired: May 29, 2016, 6:15 PM CDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Cherokee County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Mayes County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 419 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -45 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1231 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 86 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

697 
WUUS54 KTSA 292249
SVRTSA
OKC021-041-097-292315-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0158.160529T2249Z-160529T2315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN MAYES COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...
  SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...
  NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 549 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF
  ROSE...AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LOCUST GROVE...                   OAKS...
  LEACH...                          ROSE...
  PEGGS...                          

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN TULSA.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 9480 3614 9480 3603 9515 3619 9521
      3627 9499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 284DEG 3KT 3616 9505 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 29, 2:20 PM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 29, 2:20 PM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strong heating/instability has developed across portions of
northeast Oklahoma this afternoon where scattered strong
thunderstorms have developed. Deep layer shear remains minimal at
best but a few pulse storms could produce marginally severe
hail/damaging winds through the afternoon hours. Storms
developing well west of the area this afternoon will likely remain
so with only a slight chance for thunderstorms overnight.

Unsettled weather pattern will continue for the next several days
as several upper waves traverse the area with a moist/unstable
air-mass in place. Stronger upper disturbance shifts into the
southern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread
showers/thunderstorms likely along/ahead of approaching cold
front. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to
some localized flash flooding.

Models have trended a little slower with speed/progression of
cold front, which is now forecast to stall near the ARKLATX
region Thursday into Friday. Shower/thunderstorm chances will
likely persist across portions of southeast Oklahoma and west-
central Arkansas during this time as a developing upper low moves
into northern/central Texas. Exact track of upper low will
determine how quickly precipitation shifts south of the region
by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  83  67  82 /  20  30  30  60
FSM   66  85  66  85 /  20  30  30  40
MLC   64  84  66  84 /  20  30  30  50
BVO   62  82  64  81 /  20  30  30  60
FYV   60  82  61  81 /  20  30  30  40
BYV   62  82  63  81 /  20  30  30  40
MKO   64  82  63  83 /  20  30  30  60
MIO   62  84  64  83 /  20  30  30  60
F10   65  82  65  83 /  20  30  30  60
HHW   66  85  66  83 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12

Hazardous weather outlook, May 29, 4:56 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
456 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 29, 4:58 PM CDT, 51 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ054-055-292230-
WASHINGTON OK-OSAGE OK-
458 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL OSAGE AND
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 457 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST
OF AVANT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
BARNSDALL...                      RAMONA...
OCHELATA...                       AVANT...
VERA...                           WOLCO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 9591 3643 9581 3642 9590 3642 9603
      3641 9607 3654 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 129DEG 5KT 3654 9603

Special weather statement, May 29, 5:11 PM CDT, 38 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
511 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ054-055-292245-
WASHINGTON OK-OSAGE OK-
511 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 510 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HULAH...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
COPAN...                          HULAH...
WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK...

LAT...LON 3700 9579 3694 9579 3694 9581 3687 9581
      3683 9582 3691 9624 3700 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 220DEG 8KT 3694 9601

Special weather statement, May 29, 5:22 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
522 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ061-067-292245-
ROGERS OK-WAGONER OK-
522 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ROGERS AND NORTH
CENTRAL WAGONER COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 521 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF INOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
INOLA...

LAT...LON 3624 9551 3611 9544 3608 9544 3607 9542
      3607 9545 3604 9562 3611 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 234DEG 5KT 3611 9558

Local storm report, May 29, 5:24 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
524 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             SALINA                  36.29N 95.15W
05/29/2016  E0.25 INCH       MAYES              OK   PUBLIC

&&

AEJ

Special weather statement, May 29, 5:41 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
541 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ062-063-068-292315-
CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-
541 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAYES...SOUTHWESTERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 541 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROSE...MOVING
EAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
LOCUST GROVE...                   OAKS...
LEACH...                          ROSE...
PEGGS...                          SPORTSMEN ACRES COMMUNITY...

LAT...LON 3614 9481 3613 9480 3602 9514 3622 9528
      3630 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 252DEG 6KT 3618 9503

Local storm report, May 29, 5:46 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
546 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             BROKEN ARROW            36.05N 95.79W
05/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            51ST AND LYNN LANE

&&

AEJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 29, 4:44 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pittsburg	46 min
May 29, 5:32 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pittsburg	43 min
May 29, 6:06 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Latimer	39 min
May 29, 6:43 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	47 min
May 29, 11:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	42 min
May 29, 11:29 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	31 min
May 29, 1:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	44 min
May 29, 2:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers	38 min
May 29, 2:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	40 min
May 29, 2:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	35 min
May 29, 2:53 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Osage	3 hr
May 29, 2:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	37 min
May 29, 3:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	39 min
May 29, 3:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	37 min
May 29, 3:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	24 min
May 29, 3:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	34 min
May 29, 3:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Tulsa	30 min
May 29, 4:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	24 min
May 29, 4:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	32 min
May 29, 4:20 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Osage	3 hr
May 29, 4:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	32 min
May 29, 4:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	LeFlore	26 min
May 29, 4:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Mayes	35 min
May 29, 4:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	32 min
May 29, 5:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Mayes	29 min
May 29, 5:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	34 min
May 29, 5:22 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Wagoner	23 min
May 29, 5:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Mayes	14 min
May 29, 5:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Mayes	34 min
May 29, 5:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	30 min
May 29, 5:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Mayes	37 min
May 29, 6:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Delaware, Mayes	29 min
May 29, 6:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	31 min
May 29, 6:21 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	3 hr
May 29, 6:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Mayes	33 min
May 29, 6:29 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Cherokee, Mayes	3 hr
May 29, 6:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers	32 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.