Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 29, 2016Cherokee County, Delaware County, Mayes County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 29, 2016, 6:01 PM CDT for Cherokee County, Delaware County, Mayes County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 29, 2016, 6:01 PM CDT (23:01 UTC)
Expired: May 29, 2016, 6:30 PM CDT
In force: 29 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Cherokee County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Mayes County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 419 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -45 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1231 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 86 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

901 
WUUS54 KTSA 292301
SVRTSA
OKC021-041-097-292330-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0159.160529T2301Z-160529T2330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN MAYES COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...
  SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...
  NORTH CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 601 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF
  LOCUST GROVE...AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LOCUST GROVE...                   OAKS...
  LEACH...                          ROSE...
  PEGGS...                          

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN TULSA.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 9480 3605 9516 3619 9521 3627 9499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 120DEG 4KT 3618 9510 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

1 follow-up statement

460 
WWUS54 KTSA 292318
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKC021-041-097-292330-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-160529T2330Z/
MAYES OK-DELAWARE OK-CHEROKEE OK-
618 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAYES...SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND NORTH CENTRAL
CHEROKEE COUNTIES...

AT 618 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
PEGGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
LOCUST GROVE...                   OAKS...
LEACH...                          ROSE...
PEGGS...                          

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
TULSA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 9480 3605 9516 3619 9521 3627 9499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 333DEG 6KT 3615 9510 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 29, 2:20 PM CDT, 3 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 29, 2:20 PM CDT, 3 hours 41 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strong heating/instability has developed across portions of
northeast Oklahoma this afternoon where scattered strong
thunderstorms have developed. Deep layer shear remains minimal at
best but a few pulse storms could produce marginally severe
hail/damaging winds through the afternoon hours. Storms
developing well west of the area this afternoon will likely remain
so with only a slight chance for thunderstorms overnight.

Unsettled weather pattern will continue for the next several days
as several upper waves traverse the area with a moist/unstable
air-mass in place. Stronger upper disturbance shifts into the
southern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread
showers/thunderstorms likely along/ahead of approaching cold
front. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to
some localized flash flooding.

Models have trended a little slower with speed/progression of
cold front, which is now forecast to stall near the ARKLATX
region Thursday into Friday. Shower/thunderstorm chances will
likely persist across portions of southeast Oklahoma and west-
central Arkansas during this time as a developing upper low moves
into northern/central Texas. Exact track of upper low will
determine how quickly precipitation shifts south of the region
by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  83  67  82 /  20  30  30  60
FSM   66  85  66  85 /  20  30  30  40
MLC   64  84  66  84 /  20  30  30  50
BVO   62  82  64  81 /  20  30  30  60
FYV   60  82  61  81 /  20  30  30  40
BYV   62  82  63  81 /  20  30  30  40
MKO   64  82  63  83 /  20  30  30  60
MIO   62  84  64  83 /  20  30  30  60
F10   65  82  65  83 /  20  30  30  60
HHW   66  85  66  83 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12

Hazardous weather outlook, May 29, 4:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
456 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 29, 5:24 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
524 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             SALINA                  36.29N 95.15W
05/29/2016  E0.25 INCH       MAYES              OK   PUBLIC

&&

AEJ

Special weather statement, May 29, 5:41 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
541 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ062-063-068-292315-
CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-
541 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAYES...SOUTHWESTERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 541 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROSE...MOVING
EAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
LOCUST GROVE...                   OAKS...
LEACH...                          ROSE...
PEGGS...                          SPORTSMEN ACRES COMMUNITY...

LAT...LON 3614 9481 3613 9480 3602 9514 3622 9528
      3630 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 252DEG 6KT 3618 9503

Local storm report, May 29, 5:46 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
546 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             BROKEN ARROW            36.05N 95.79W
05/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            51ST AND LYNN LANE

&&

AEJ

Local storm report, May 29, 5:51 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
551 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             BROKEN ARROW            36.05N 95.79W
05/29/2016  E0.88 INCH       TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

AEJ

Special weather statement, May 29, 5:53 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
553 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ062-292330-
MAYES OK-
553 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MAYES COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

AT 553 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PRYOR CREEK...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
PRYOR...                          PRYOR CREEK...
SPORTSMEN ACRES COMMUNITY...

LAT...LON 3636 9519 3620 9528 3622 9544 3625 9544
      3625 9543 3635 9544 3637 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 305DEG 5KT 3629 9537

Local storm report, May 29, 5:56 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             3 NE BROKEN ARROW       36.08N 95.75W
05/29/2016  E0.50 INCH       WAGONER            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            41ST STREET SOUTH AND 193RD EAST AVE

&&

AEJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 29, 4:44 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pittsburg	46 min
May 29, 5:32 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pittsburg	43 min
May 29, 6:06 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Latimer	39 min
May 29, 6:43 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	47 min
May 29, 11:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	42 min
May 29, 11:29 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	31 min
May 29, 1:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	44 min
May 29, 2:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers	38 min
May 29, 2:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	40 min
May 29, 2:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	35 min
May 29, 2:53 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Osage	3 hr
May 29, 2:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	37 min
May 29, 3:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	39 min
May 29, 3:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	37 min
May 29, 3:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	24 min
May 29, 3:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	34 min
May 29, 3:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Tulsa	30 min
May 29, 4:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	24 min
May 29, 4:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	32 min
May 29, 4:20 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Osage	3 hr
May 29, 4:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	32 min
May 29, 4:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	LeFlore	26 min
May 29, 4:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Mayes	35 min
May 29, 4:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	32 min
May 29, 5:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Mayes	29 min
May 29, 5:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	34 min
May 29, 5:22 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Wagoner	23 min
May 29, 5:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Mayes	14 min
May 29, 5:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Mayes	34 min
May 29, 5:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	30 min
May 29, 5:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Delaware, Mayes	26 min
May 29, 5:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Mayes	37 min
May 29, 6:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	31 min
May 29, 6:21 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	3 hr
May 29, 6:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Mayes	33 min
May 29, 6:29 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Cherokee, Mayes	3 hr
May 29, 6:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers	32 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.