Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 984

June 19, 2016Marshall County, Pennington County, Red Lake County, Minnesota; Grand Forks County, Ramsey County, Walsh County, North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 19, 2016, 4:10 AM CDT for Marshall County, Pennington County, Red Lake County, Minnesota; Grand Forks County, Ramsey County, Walsh County, North Dakota. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 19, 2016, 4:10 AM CDT (09:10 UTC)
Expired: Jun 19, 2016, 5:45 AM CDT
In force: 95 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Marshall County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Grand Forks County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Walsh County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 257 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2534 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 301 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

564 
ACUS11 KWNS 190911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190910 
MNZ000-NDZ000-191045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0984
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST ND...NORTHWEST MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272...

VALID 190910Z - 191045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SMALL BUT INTENSE STORM CLUSTER SHOULD RAPIDLY TRACK EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS CLUSTER
WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL/WIND SHOULD EXTEND INTO AT LEAST A COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST MN. SPC WILL COORDINATE A DOWNSTREAM WATCH DECISION WITH
WFO FGF.

DISCUSSION...SMALL STORM CLUSTER CENTERED ON BENSON/TOWNER/RAMSEY
COUNTY LINES AS OF 0905Z IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST AT ABOUT 50-55
KT. THIS SPEED OF MOVEMENT ALONG WITH MRMS MESH SIGNATURES SUGGEST
THAT A PATH OF WIND-DRIVEN SEVERE HAIL IS LIKELY ACCOMPANYING THIS
CLUSTER. MAYVILLE VWP DATA SAMPLED A RATHER FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
FOR MAINTAINING SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF THIS
CLUSTER WILL LIKELY BE PREDICATED ON A LESS FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE PLUME OF SURFACE DEW POINTS AT
OR ABOVE 65 DEG F GENERALLY CONFINED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
WEST...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE CLUSTER TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. GIVEN THE CONFINED NORTH/SOUTH EXTENT OF
THE THREAT...A DOWNSTREAM AREAL/TEMPORAL EXTENSION FOR ITS MOST
LIKELY TRACK MAY BE A PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION.

..GRAMS/DIAL.. 06/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   48659871 48669768 48589609 48529554 48289442 48079435
            47909451 47869602 47899764 48079853 48289886 48659871

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 18, 10:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Kittson, Marshall, Roseau	8 hr
Jun 19, 7:46 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Koochiching	89 min
Jun 19, 3:24 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aitkin, Becker, Beltrami, Benton, Big Stone, Carlton and 38 more	2 hr
Jun 19, 5:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Aitkin, Benton, Carlton, Cass, Chippewa, Cook and 28 more	6 hr
Jun 19, 5:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Big Stone, Lincoln, Lyon, Pipestone, Traverse	5 hr
Jun 18, 9:58 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benson, Bottineau, Burke, Cavalier, Divide, McHenry and 10 more	62 min
Jun 19, 1:46 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benson, McHenry, Pierce, Ramsey, Towner, Walsh and 1 more	89 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.