Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 982

June 18, 20164 counties in Montana; 16 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 18, 2016, 8:58 PM MDT for 4 counties in Montana; 16 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 62 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 18, 2016, 8:58 PM MDT (02:58 UTC)
Expired: Jun 18, 2016, 10:00 PM MDT
In force: 62 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Daniels County, MT, Richland County, MT, Roosevelt County, MT, Sheridan County, MT, Benson County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Burke County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Divide County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Towner County, ND, Ward County, ND, Williams County, ND

The radar

The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272Jun 18, 9:20 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 3.0 hours before the alert went out and 195 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1492 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -39 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1273 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 56 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 122 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.6
Supercell composite: 3.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

546 
ACUS11 KWNS 190259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190258 
NDZ000-MTZ000-190400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT...ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271...

VALID 190258Z - 190400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NE MT INTO NW ND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL ND BY 0330Z.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1004 MB LOW OVER ERN MT
WITH BACKED FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN
PLAINS. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM
ERN ND WWD INTO NE MT WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED WITH
MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL
SPEED MAX OF 50 TO 60 KT IS LOCATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. THESE FACTORS
COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT
A FAST MOVING LINEAR MCS FORECAST TO CROSS NE MT INTO NRN ND LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EWD MOTION NEAR 50 KT
WILL MAKE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MCS. THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE SHOULD EXHIBIT
ROTATION AND HAVE A ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. ALTHOUGH THE FAVORED
STORM MODE WILL BE LINEAR OVERNIGHT...A BRIEF QLCS TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 06/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   48999803 47969799 47620012 47510408 47490532 48520597
            49030593 48970251 48989825 48999803

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 18, 9:20 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Benson, Bottineau, Burke, Cavalier, Divide, Dunn and 19 more	8 hr
Jun 19, 12:46 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benson, McHenry, Pierce, Ramsey, Towner, Walsh and 1 more	89 min
Jun 19, 3:10 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Grand Forks, Ramsey, Walsh	95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.