Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 985
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 19, 2016, 7:46 AM CDT for Koochiching County, Minnesota. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 19, 2016, 7:46 AM CDT (12:46 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 19, 2016, 9:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
County Koochiching County, MN
The radar
The Duluth radar (KDLH), 214 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 32 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 548 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -126 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1137 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 45 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 207 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 205 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted.
966
ACUS11 KWNS 191247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191246
MNZ000-191415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0985
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191246Z - 191415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A RISK FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
DISCUSSION...WHILE A LONG-LIVED/TRACKED STORM PERSISTS ALONG THE
BORDER OF NORTHEAST BELTRAMI/SOUTHEAST LAKE OF THE WOODS
COUNTIES...A PROBABLE SEVERE STORM HAS ALSO INTENSIFIED UPSTREAM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ROSEAU INTO WESTERN LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES.
THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED ON THE NOSE OF AT LEAST A 50-KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH ROBUST MID/UPPER SHEAR SAMPLED IN
THE 12Z INTERNATIONAL FALLS RAOB...AND WITH THESE CELLS BEING ON THE
FRINGE OF THE OVERSPREADING PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER...SETUP
SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THIS RISK SHOULD DECREASE IN THE LATE MORNING AS
STORMS EITHER SHIFT INTO ONTARIO AND/OR WEAKEN AS THE LLJ SUBSIDES
WITHIN THE CONUS.
..GRAMS/DIAL.. 06/19/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
LAT...LON 48769498 48889370 48699210 48469197 48189197 48119266
48189366 48269456 48399505 48539517 48769498SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 10:20 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Kittson, Marshall, Roseau | 8 hr |
| Jun 19, 4:10 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Marshall, Pennington, Red Lake | 95 min |
| Jun 19, 3:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aitkin, Becker, Beltrami, Benton, Big Stone, Carlton and 38 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 19, 5:21 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aitkin, Benton, Carlton, Cass, Chippewa, Cook and 28 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 19, 5:33 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Big Stone, Lincoln, Lyon, Pipestone, Traverse | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.