Mesoscale Discussion 923

Issued

Jun 14, 2016, 6:15 PM CDT (23:15 UTC)

Expired

Jun 14, 2016, 8:45 PM CDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

40%

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

999 
ACUS11 KWNS 142316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142315 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-150145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SRN IA...FAR SERN NEB...WRN
MO...ERN/SRN KS...FAR NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 142315Z - 150145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME INCREASE IN THE SVR
TSTM POTENTIAL...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SVR WIND/HAIL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAKLY CONFLUENT...LOW-LEVEL
WSWLY/SWLY FLOW THAT MARKS THE ERN EDGE OF WARMER AIR SLOWLY
ADVANCING EWD. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
DEWPOINTS FROM THE 60S TO AROUND 70F. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...FOLLOWING MAXIMIZED DEEPENING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
CIRCULATIONS.

IF SUSTAINED CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SVR WIND/HAIL COULD OCCUR PROVIDED AROUND 30-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS MAY BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN NEAR/NORTH
OF INTERSTATE-70...WHERE THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RELATED MODEST MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY ENCOURAGE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
OVERSPREADING PARTICULARLY SRN PARTS OF THE REGION...WHICH COULD
INDICATE HOSTILE MID-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR SUSTAINED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST MODEST LOW-LEVEL ASCENT. NEVERTHELESS...
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SOME INCREASE IN
THE SVR RISK. IF A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WERE TO BECOME APPARENT...WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37369737 39329652 40279574 40799480 40359371 37289538
            36689687 37369737

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.