Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 903

June 13, 20165 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2016, 6:00 PM MDT for 5 states. It was in force for 90 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 13, 2016, 6:00 PM MDT (00:00 UTC)
Expired
Jun 13, 2016, 7:30 PM MDT
In force
90 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 67 counties

Carter County, MT, Custer County, MT, Dawson County, MT, Fallon County, MT, McCone County, MT, Powder River County, MT, Prairie County, MT, Richland County, MT, Roosevelt County, MT, Sheridan County, MT, Wibaux County, MT, Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Williams County, ND, Arthur County, NE, Banner County, NE, Box Butte County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Cheyenne County, NE, Dawes County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Garden County, NE, Grant County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keith County, NE, Kimball County, NE, Logan County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Morrill County, NE, Scotts Bluff County, NE, Sheridan County, NE, Sioux County, NE, Thomas County, NE, Bennett County, SD, Butte County, SD, Custer County, SD, Fall River County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Harding County, SD, Jackson County, SD, Lawrence County, SD, Meade County, SD, Oglala Lakota County, SD, Pennington County, SD, Perkins County, SD, Todd County, SD, Ziebach County, SD, Campbell County, WY, Converse County, WY, Crook County, WY, Goshen County, WY, Laramie County, WY, Niobrara County, WY, Platte County, WY, Weston County, WY

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 148 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KRAP), launched 00:00Z, 0.0 hours before the alert went out and 150 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2016-06-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2016-06-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 98 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2044 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
98 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
76 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

071 
ACUS11 KWNS 140001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140000 
SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-140130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT/WY AND WRN ND/SD/NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249...251...

VALID 140000Z - 140130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
249...251...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WW 249 AND
251. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY RISKS.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS WRN SD WITH A HISTORY
OF OBSERVED WIND GUSTS AOA 50 KT IS MOVING EWD AROUND 30-35 KT...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IN THE SHORT
TERM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES EWD INTO CNTRL SD GIVEN THAT A MUCH LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS
PRESENT THERE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ERN
WY WITH UPSLOPE ELY FLOW CONTINUING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW 249 IN WY CONTINUES.
ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN NERN CO MAY EVENTUALLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS IT SPREADS NEWD
INTO PARTS OF WRN NEB...POSING MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND HAVE STRUGGLED TO BECOME
SEVERE SO FAR...PROBABLY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT.
REGARDLESS...RECENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST HAIL
APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS WW 251.

..GLEASON.. 06/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   49030505 49050205 44700103 41430029 41010204 41040523
            42460595 44590593 45920646 47350684 49030505

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 14, 1:00 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Broadwater, Cascade, Chouteau, Fergus, Gallatin and 6 more2 hr
Jun 14, 4:03 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Daniels, McCone, Phillips, Roosevelt, Valley2 hr
Jun 13, 7:30 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArthur, Blaine, Box Butte, Brown, Cherry, Cheyenne and 11 more60 min
Jun 13, 10:26 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Brown, Chase, Custer, Dawson, Dundy and 11 more2 hr
Jun 14, 10:45 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBurt, Butler, Cass, Clay, Colfax, Cuming and 17 more2 hr
Jun 14, 11:43 AM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBurt, Cuming, Dakota, Dixon, Dodge, Douglas and 4 more8 hr
Jun 14, 1:51 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBurt, Dakota, Dodge, Douglas, Sarpy, Saunders and 2 more114 min
Jun 14, 2:31 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Brown, Cherry, Garfield, Keya Paha, Loup and 1 more119 min
Jun 14, 5:15 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCRichardson3 hr
Jun 14, 1:33 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCGrant, Marshall, Roberts5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.