Alert archive / Montana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 914
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 14, 2016, 1:00 PM MDT for 12 counties in Montana. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 14, 2016, 1:00 PM MDT (19:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 14, 2016, 3:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Blaine County, MT, Broadwater County, MT, Cascade County, MT, Chouteau County, MT, Fergus County, MT, Gallatin County, MT, Golden Valley County, MT, Hill County, MT, Judith Basin County, MT, Meagher County, MT, Sweet Grass County, MT, Wheatland County, MT
The radar
The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 97 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1566 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 13 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 163 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
645
ACUS11 KWNS 141901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141900
MTZ000-142100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0914
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141900Z - 142100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS A BROKEN BAND
OF MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION ORGANIZING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MT THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION...CONVECTION SHOULD FURTHER BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
MT. AS STORMS SPREAD EAST...THEY WILL GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER A SLIGHTLY
MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S
AND DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. A WELL-MIXED
/INVERTED-V/ BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ENHANCE
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL...WITH STRONGER CORES CAPABLE OF A FEW SEVERE
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE FURTHER AUGMENTED BY VIGOROUS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER /AROUND 40-50
KTS/...WHICH IS WITNESSED IN RECENT KTFX VWP DATA. NONETHELESS...A
LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE /AND RELATED BUOYANCY/ SHOULD KEEP THE
THREAT ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.
..PICCA/GUYER.. 06/14/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 45551213 46041202 48971076 48990793 47890808 46450862
45691008 45361156 45371212 45551213SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 6:00 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Custer, Dawson, Fallon, McCone, Powder River and 5 more | 90 min |
| Jun 14, 4:03 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blaine, Daniels, McCone, Phillips, Roosevelt, Valley | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.