Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 908

June 13, 2016Barber County, Kansas; 9 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2016, 10:34 PM CDT for Barber County, Kansas; 9 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 13, 2016, 10:34 PM CDT (03:34 UTC)
Expired
Jun 14, 2016, 1:00 AM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Barber County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Custer County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Major County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2016-06-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 755 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2016-06-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 24 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
755 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-127 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
908 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
72 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

459 
ACUS11 KWNS 140335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140334 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-140600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN KS...WRN OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 140334Z - 140600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
SPREADING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE
A FEW STRONG TSTMS MAY LINGER...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL
HAIL...THE SVR RISK SHOULD BE MINIMAL...AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF TSTMS FROM SWRN KS TO NWRN OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE HAVE LARGELY ORGANIZED INTO LINEAR MODES. THE
LONGER-DURATION MCS OVER NRN PARTS OF THIS AREA IS NOW BEYOND ITS
MATURE PHASE AND IS DECAYING WITH A LEADING EDGE FROM COMANCHE
COUNTY KS TO NEAR ELLIS COUNTY OK. INTENSE TSTMS CONTINUE FROM A
MORE RECENTLY ORGANIZED MCS IN THE TX PANHANDLE. ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SPREADING E/SE OF WWS 252/253 INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL MAY SPREAD E/SE OF WWS 252/253...ESPECIALLY
WITH ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MOVING E OF THE E-CNTRL/SERN TX PANHANDLE
INTO W-CNTRL OK.

REGARDLESS...RECENT SFC COOLING AND RELATED GAINS IN NOCTURNAL
INHIBITION...COMBINED WITH THESE SYSTEMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
REMOVED FROM STRONGER DEEP SHEAR WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ONLY
MODEST...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DECAY OF THESE SYSTEMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SFC OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING OK MESONET OBS SUGGEST THAT
GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE NWRN OK/SWRN KS PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY ARE
LIKELY SUB-SEVERE...AS THE LEADING GUST FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL
AHEAD OF PARENT CONVECTION. AS SUCH...THE SVR RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL E OF WWS 252/253.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   37449881 37479833 37079807 35599826 34849925 34540027
            34850045 35309968 35499923 35949890 37029887 37449881

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 13, 7:53 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Sherman97 min
Jun 13, 9:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Comanche, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray and 5 more88 min
Jun 13, 11:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Rawlins, Sherman, Thomas2 hr
Jun 14, 6:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Brown, Butler, Chase and 25 more3 hr
Jun 13, 8:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver95 min
Jun 13, 10:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEllis, Harper, Roger Mills, Woodward90 min
Jun 14, 4:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Caddo, Carter, Comanche, Cotton, Greer and 7 more88 min
Jun 14, 5:51 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCComanche, Cotton, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kiowa and 1 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.