Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 918
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 14, 2016, 4:02 PM CDT for 13 counties in Oklahoma; 24 counties in Texas. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 14, 2016, 4:02 PM CDT (21:02 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 14, 2016, 5:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 37 counties
Beckham County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Carter County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Love County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Childress County, TX, Clay County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Jack County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Montague County, TX, Motley County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX
The radar
The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 220 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -383 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2433 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -6 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -46 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
099
ACUS11 KWNS 142103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142102
TXZ000-OKZ000-142230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SRN OK/WRN N TX AND
VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 142102Z - 142230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN N TX AND ADJACENT SRN OK IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WW
MAY BE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN CU
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AMA-PVW-LBB VICINITY...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A
DRYLINE AND A WEAK/REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW LAID DOWN BY EARLIER
OK CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CU FIELD IS ALSO NOTED SE
OF CDS...LIKELY INVOF THE OUTFLOW ITSELF. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 70S AND CONTINUED HEATING THROUGH THE LOW 90S ARE COMBINING WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD STRONG DESTABILIZATION...WITH
MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES NOW INTO THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA.
THOUGH NOT AS CONSISTENT IN EARLIER RUNS THIS MORNING...VARIOUS
VERSIONS OF HRRR OUTPUT ARE CONSISTENTLY -- FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS -- HINTING AT A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP...AND WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
RESIDING ATOP THIS AREA /SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION/...RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS. WHILE COVERAGE MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED...RISK MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR WW CONSIDERATION.
..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/14/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 35160116 35380070 35249835 34659721 33549675 32979742
32969888 33120030 33470099 34170087 35160116SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 8:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver | 95 min |
| Jun 13, 9:02 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ellis, Harper, Roger Mills, Woodward | 88 min |
| Jun 13, 10:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Custer, Greer, Harmon and 3 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 13, 10:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ellis, Harper, Roger Mills, Woodward | 90 min |
| Jun 14, 5:51 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Comanche, Cotton, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kiowa and 1 more | 4 hr |
| Jun 13, 10:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Donley, Wheeler | 94 min |
| Jun 14, 5:31 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cottle, Foard, Hardeman, Motley, Wilbarger | 59 min |
| Jun 14, 6:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cottle, Foard, Hardeman | 94 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.