Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 922

June 14, 20165 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 14, 2016, 5:31 PM CDT for 5 counties in Texas. It was in force for 59 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 14, 2016, 5:31 PM CDT (22:31 UTC)
Expired: Jun 14, 2016, 6:30 PM CDT
In force: 59 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 95%

Counties Cottle County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Motley County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 257Jun 14, 5:50 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 223 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 833 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -91 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 613 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 133 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 128 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 5.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

946 
ACUS11 KWNS 142231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142231 
TXZ000-OKZ000-142330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0922
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF THE TX S PLAINS...WRN NORTH
TX...FAR SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON 

VALID 142231Z - 142330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WW WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX S
PLAINS...WRN NORTH TX...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT FAR SWRN OK. VERY
ISOLATED SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND THE RISK
FOR A TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST REPEATED
CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS AND RELATED MODULATIONS TO THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES HAVE FOSTERED DEVELOPMENT OF MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION NEAR
A TRIPLE POINT ANALYZED IN MOTLEY COUNTY TX. TOWERING CUMULUS
TRAILING SWWD ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO DEEPER
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- EMANATING FROM THE EDGE OF
NEAR-DRY-ADIABATIC LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE AIR MASS IN PROXIMITY
TO/AND S OF A RESIDUAL/DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM THE
TRIPLE POINT ENEWD INTO S-CNTRL OK IS STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY 
UNSTABLE -- WITH MLCAPE AROUND 3000-4500 J/KG AIDED BY LOWER/MIDDLE
70S SFC DEWPOINTS LYING BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS
SUCH...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY...AND GIVEN 30-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL -- PERHAPS REACHING 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER -- AND SVR WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION MAY TEND TO
FAVOR THE LOWER-SRH ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND S OF THE BOUNDARY OWING TO
AN OVERALL DEARTH OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...LIMITING THE OVERALL
TORNADO RISK. HOWEVER...WITH MODEST NOCTURNAL INCREASES IN SRH OWING
TO INITIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING WITHIN A FEW HOURS -- AMIDST
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FAVORING SLOW GAINS IN MLCINH -- SOME TORNADO
RISK COULD INCREASE IF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODE WERE TO BE
MAINTAINED.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON   33670043 33840116 34280055 34429929 34159882 33799885
            33619927 33670043

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 13, 8:25 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Carson, Castro, Deaf Smith, Donley, Gray and 8 more	95 min
Jun 13, 10:56 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Donley, Wheeler	94 min
Jun 14, 4:02 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Childress, Clay, Collingsworth, Cooke and 18 more	88 min
Jun 14, 5:51 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Briscoe, Childress, Cottle, Crosby and 10 more	4 hr
Jun 14, 6:56 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cottle, Foard, Hardeman	94 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.