Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 899

June 13, 20165 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2016, 4:16 PM MDT for 5 states. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 13, 2016, 4:16 PM MDT (22:16 UTC)
Expired: Jun 13, 2016, 5:45 PM MDT
In force: 89 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 35 counties

Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Crowley County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Otero County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Washington County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Morton County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Colfax County, NM, Harding County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Sherman County, TX

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 223 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -213 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 820 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 10 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -33 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

307 
ACUS11 KWNS 132217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132216 
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-132345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...WRN KS...FAR SWRN NEB...TX/OK
PANHANDLES...NERN NM

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 250...

VALID 132216Z - 132345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 250 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR RISK CONTINUES ACROSS WW 250.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE
TRACKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE
CONVECTIVELY UNPERTURBED AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE...AS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ARE
SAMPLED ACROSS THE REGION -- BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
NOTABLE VERTICALLY-VEERING-FLOW PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL
SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS...COUPLED WITH 40-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...SUGGEST THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SUPERCELLS NEAR/E OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM PUEBLO TO CASTLE ROCK IN
CO MAY HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES -- GIVEN THE ELY SFC WIND COMPONENT AND AMPLE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACKED UP TO THE FRONT RANGE.
OTHER CLUSTERS OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN CO TO NERN NM AND THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD WITH A RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

..COHEN.. 06/13/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   40300459 40840369 40710219 38930153 36270172 35080277
            35330477 37580503 40300459

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 13, 11:18 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Arapahoe, Baca, Bent, Boulder, Broomfield and 20 more	117 min
Jun 13, 1:27 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adams, Arapahoe, Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley and 17 more	8 hr
Jun 13, 12:13 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray, Haskell, Kearny and 4 more	92 min
Jun 13, 5:17 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Finney, Ford, Gray, Haskell, Lane, Meade	88 min
Jun 13, 5:49 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford, Grant and 17 more	6 hr
Jun 13, 3:43 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Lea, Roosevelt	3 hr
Jun 13, 5:12 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaver	63 min
Jun 13, 5:31 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Beaver, Cimarron, Texas	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.