Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 898
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2016, 3:43 PM MDT for Lea County, Roosevelt County, New Mexico; 16 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 13, 2016, 3:43 PM MDT (21:43 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 13, 2016, 6:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Lea County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Borden County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 142 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 367 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -295 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2011 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 45 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 140 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
859
ACUS11 KWNS 132144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132143
TXZ000-NMZ000-140015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX S PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN...SERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 132143Z - 140015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR RISK MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION SPREADING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS
PRESENTLY UNLIKELY...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. IF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH SVR POTENTIAL
WERE TO DEVELOP...WW ISSUANCE PROBABILITIES COULD INCREASE.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS AND SFC OBSERVATIONS IMPLY
HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARISING FROM THE DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NM -- WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST
THAT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS MINIMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS...THOUGH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINED WITH DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS MAY
RESULT IN A FEW SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SPREADING EWD/SEWD
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF W TX...IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON THE MODIFYING/COOLER SIDE OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED NW/SE THROUGH THE TX S PLAINS AND
VICINITY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...MLCAPE OF
2000-4000 J/KG AMIDST 25-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR MAY FACILITATE A FEW
INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...IF UPSCALE
GROWTH OF ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WERE TO YIELD A MORE
WIDESPREAD SVR RISK...WW ISSUANCE MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED LATER.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/13/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32100225 32610374 34210406 34630267 33970162 32750099
32100225SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 11:18 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Colfax, Union | 117 min |
| Jun 13, 1:27 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Colfax, Guadalupe, Harding, Mora, Quay, San Miguel and 1 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 13, 4:16 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Colfax, Harding, Union | 89 min |
| Jun 13, 5:12 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Carson, Castro, Donley, Gray, Hansford and 7 more | 63 min |
| Jun 13, 5:31 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Dallam, Deaf Smith and 17 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.