Mesoscale Discussion 893

Issued

Jun 13, 2016, 11:18 AM MDT (17:18 UTC)

Expired

Jun 13, 2016, 1:15 PM MDT

In force

117 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

80%

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 250Jun 13, 1:25 PM MDT

321 
ACUS11 KWNS 131719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131718 
OKZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-131915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/NERN NM AND VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 131718Z - 131915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON.  WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS
ATTM...THOUGH SOME DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS NOTED PER
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.  WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE STILL SHOWING REMNANTS
OF AN ERODING LOW-CLOUD DECK E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OBS
REVEALING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...CAPE REMAINS
SUB-OPTIMAL FOR SEVERE RISK ATTM.

WITH THAT SAID...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WRN
CO/NWRN NM AS THE UPPER TROUGH -- CENTERED OVER UT/AZ -- ADVANCES. 
WITH ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GRADUALLY
YIELDING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT ADDITIONAL BANDS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...SPREADING ENEWD OUT OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  

BACKGROUND SHEAR -- THOUGH MODEST ATTM -- WILL ALSO SLOWLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW /40 TO 60
KT/ SPREADS ATOP PERSISTENT SELYS AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE STORM MODE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...ROTATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANY CELLULAR
CONVECTION -- ALONG WITH ATTENDANT RISK FOR HAIL/WIND AND SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL.  UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS ALSO SEEMS
LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND RISK
SPREADING ACROSS ERN CO TOWARD THE NEB PANHANDLE/WRN KS/THE TX AND
OK PANHANDLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
DESTABILIZATION OF THE HIGH-PLAINS AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED CU FIELD
EVOLUTION...WITH AN EYE TOWARD WW ISSUANCE ROUGHLY ANTICIPATED IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.

..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/13/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON   40420516 40860462 41220317 40770250 39010231 37030243
            36210360 36580510 37550508 38550497 39950553 40420516

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.