Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 902

June 13, 20166 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2016, 6:17 PM CDT for 6 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 13, 2016, 6:17 PM CDT (23:17 UTC)
Expired
Jun 13, 2016, 7:45 PM CDT
In force
88 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
95%

Counties Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2016-06-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2016-06-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -151 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1739 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-151 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-55 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

075 
ACUS11 KWNS 132318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132317 
KSZ000-140045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 132317Z - 140045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SVR RISK IS INCREASING E OF WW 250...LIKELY
NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH DOWNSTREAM.

DISCUSSION...A FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING EWD/SEWD INTO/ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN KS. WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE
INFLOW CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AMIDST 35-50 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SVR WIND/HAIL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/13/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37230121 38410129 38540024 37529960 37160015 37230121

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 13, 1:13 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFinney, Ford, Grant, Gray, Haskell, Kearny and 4 more92 min
Jun 13, 2:27 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCheyenne, Greeley, Hamilton, Morton, Sherman, Stanton and 1 more8 hr
Jun 13, 5:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGreeley, Hamilton, Morton, Sherman, Stanton, Wallace89 min
Jun 13, 6:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford, Grant and 17 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.