Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 52

January 22, 201619 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 22, 2016, 1:16 PM EST for 19 counties in Florida. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 22, 2016, 1:16 PM EST (18:16 UTC)
Expired: Jan 22, 2016, 3:15 PM EST
In force: 119 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Brevard County, FL, Charlotte County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Lake County, FL, Lee County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Martin County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Polk County, FL, Saint Lucie County, FL, Sarasota County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Volusia County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 70 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 5 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -142 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 820 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 463 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 539 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

354 
ACUS11 KWNS 221817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221816 
FLZ000-222015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8...

VALID 221816Z - 222015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL FL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON IF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CELLS CAN
REDEVELOP. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WRN AND
NRN PART OF WW 8 AS CONVECTION MOVES ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST OF FL WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL
AND SRN FL PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS ONGOING ACROSS SRN FL
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE. FURTHER TO THE NORTH TO THE NORTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...CONVECTION IS SCATTERED WHICH HAS ALLOWED SFC
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S F. AS A RESULT...AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CNTRL
FL PENINSULA WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE.
IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CNTRL FL
PENINSULA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET
LOCATED IN NRN FL. THE WSR-88D VWP AT MELBOURNE SHOWS 60 KT OF 0-6
KM SHEAR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 1 KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF
CELLS CAN REDEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 01/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   26178231 26338182 26298166 26418161 26418156 27028153
            27038127 27108125 27108115 27198115 27158082 27148069
            26948060 26967972 28228024 28438021 28768030 29508071
            29468109 29268110 29258137 29378140 29348164 29068162
            28958164 28958191 28528190 28308201 28268205 28188211
            28188263 27888261 27728261 27798273 27868282 28008278
            28108275 28078316 27738312 27388301 26688260 26178231

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 21, 7:53 PM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bay, Calhoun, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and 9 more	10 hr
Jan 21, 9:38 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Escambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton	2 hr
Jan 22, 12:33 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Escambia, Santa Rosa	57 min
Jan 22, 2:56 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes and 6 more	2 hr
Jan 22, 5:51 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Franklin, Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, Madison and 2 more	84 min
Jan 22, 8:37 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee and 13 more	2 hr
Jan 22, 9:49 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Brevard, Charlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Flagler, Hardee and 21 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.