Alert archive / Alabama / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 41

January 21, 2016Conecuh County, Escambia County, Alabama; Escambia County, Santa Rosa County, Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 21, 2016, 11:33 PM CST for Conecuh County, Escambia County, Alabama; Escambia County, Santa Rosa County, Florida. It was in force for 57 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 21, 2016, 11:33 PM CST (05:33 UTC)
Expired
Jan 22, 2016, 12:30 AM CST
In force
57 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Conecuh County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 00:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 251 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2016-01-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 390 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2016-01-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 305 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
390 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-43 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
738 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
305 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
332 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.8
Supercell composite
4.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

431 
ACUS11 KWNS 220533
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220533 
ALZ000-FLZ000-220630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...

VALID 220533Z - 220630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLD WIND DAMAGE AND A WEAK TORNADO WILL
CONTINUE FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND THE
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITHIN 50-70 MI OF THE
COAST.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN COMPLEX
CONVECTIVE/HYBRID STRUCTURES WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS CYCLING
ACROSS BALDWIN COUNTY AL AND ESCAMBIA COUNTY FL.  THE UPSCALE GROWTH
OF THE CONVECTION INTO PRIMARILY A LINEAR SYSTEM IS OCCURRING LATE
THIS EVENING AS STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS
THE WEDGE-SHAPED MODIFYING WARM SECTOR OVER THE MCD AREA.  EARLIER
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS /300 M2 PER S2 0-1 KM
SRH/ HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE KMOB VAD.  DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 OVER S-CNTRL AL TO THE
LOWER 60S NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE COASTLINE...THE STRONG LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DOWNDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND A WEAK TORNADO.

..SMITH.. 01/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...

LAT...LON   30258787 31068730 31448723 31608678 31358648 30388684
            30258787

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 21, 6:53 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAutauga, Baldwin, Butler, Choctaw, Clarke, Coffee and 21 more10 hr
Jan 21, 8:38 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington, Escambia, Geneva and 3 more2 hr
Jan 22, 1:56 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston2 hr
Jan 22, 4:51 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFranklin, Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, Madison and 2 more84 min
Jan 22, 7:37 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBroward, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee and 13 more2 hr
Jan 22, 8:49 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrevard, Charlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Flagler, Hardee and 21 more5 hr
Jan 22, 12:16 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Charlotte, DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Hillsborough and 13 more119 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.