Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 48
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 22, 2016, 8:37 AM EST for 19 counties in Florida. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 22, 2016, 8:37 AM EST (13:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 22, 2016, 11:00 AM EST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Broward County, FL, Charlotte County, FL, Citrus County, FL, Collier County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Lee County, FL, Levy County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Marion County, FL, Miami-Dade County, FL, Monroe County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Sarasota County, FL, Sumter County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 5 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -142 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 820 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 70 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 463 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 539 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.4
The text
As transmitted.
280
ACUS11 KWNS 221337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221337
FLZ000-221600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND KEYS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221337Z - 221600Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR
TWO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
MIDDAY...INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL
PENINSULA AND KEYS VICINITY. DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND RELATED STRONG JET STREAK
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WITH INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR
ACROSS MUCH OF FL. AN EASTWARD-MOVING SQUALL LINE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IMMEDIATELY PRECEDES A COLD FRONT...WITH A
MARITIME-RELATED WARM FRONT NEARING WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA. IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z KEY WEST OBSERVED SOUNDING
SAMPLED A 14.3 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO AND NEARLY 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...INDICATIVE OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA TODAY. CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND THE INITIALLY
STABLE/RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE
RISK. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE INLAND-ADVANCING WARM/MOIST SECTOR AND
INCREASINGLY STRONG FORCING/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL INCLUDING A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO MIDDAY WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/22/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 29278288 29358211 28888174 28368176 27198173 26518110
26288025 25988003 25078023 24528076 24268183 24528228
25148197 25928201 27928319 28898322 29278288SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 7:53 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bay, Calhoun, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and 9 more | 10 hr |
| Jan 21, 9:38 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Escambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton | 2 hr |
| Jan 22, 12:33 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Escambia, Santa Rosa | 57 min |
| Jan 22, 2:56 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes and 6 more | 2 hr |
| Jan 22, 5:51 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Franklin, Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, Madison and 2 more | 84 min |
| Jan 22, 9:49 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brevard, Charlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Flagler, Hardee and 21 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 22, 1:16 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brevard, Charlotte, DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Hillsborough and 13 more | 119 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.