Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 45

January 22, 20168 counties in Florida; Decatur County, Grady County, Thomas County, Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 22, 2016, 5:51 AM EST for 8 counties in Florida; Decatur County, Grady County, Thomas County, Georgia. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 22, 2016, 5:51 AM EST (10:51 UTC)
Expired
Jan 22, 2016, 7:15 AM EST
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Leon County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Decatur County, GA, Grady County, GA, Thomas County, GA

The radar

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 25 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 00:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 26 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2016-01-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2016-01-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 201 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1670 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
201 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
366 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

222 
ACUS11 KWNS 221052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221051 
FLZ000-GAZ000-221215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHWEST GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 221051Z - 221215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 7 EXPIRES AT 11Z/6AM EST. AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND/BRIEF TORNADO RISK MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE BEYOND 11Z...BUT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS/MESOVORTICES
CONTINUES PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST GA AS OF 1030Z/530AM EST. CONSISTENT WITH
LIGHTNING/INFRARED-SATELLITE INDICATED CLOUD-TOP TRENDS...THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE WITHIN 30-50 MILES OF THE COAST WHERE A SOMEWHAT
WARMER/MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS/BRIEF TORNADO WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITHIN A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS PER TALLAHASSEE WSR-88D VWP DATA.
HOWEVER...AS THE STRONGER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER A
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS INLAND /50S F SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS/...THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL/LOCALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29488508 30548496 31078469 30938397 30238303 29458359
            29488508

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 21, 7:53 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCBay, Calhoun, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and 9 more10 hr
Jan 21, 9:38 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEscambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton2 hr
Jan 22, 12:33 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEscambia, Santa Rosa57 min
Jan 22, 2:56 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes and 6 more2 hr
Jan 22, 8:37 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBroward, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee and 13 more2 hr
Jan 22, 9:49 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrevard, Charlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Flagler, Hardee and 21 more5 hr
Jan 22, 1:16 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Charlotte, DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Hillsborough and 13 more119 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.