Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 43
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 22, 2016, 3:47 AM CST for 5 states. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 22, 2016, 3:47 AM CST (09:47 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 22, 2016, 8:45 AM CST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 102 counties
Adair County, KY, Bell County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clay County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Estill County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Russell County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Surry County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Carter County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Alleghany County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buchanan County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Bristol, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Norton, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Lee County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Boone County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Greenbrier County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Summers County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wyoming County, WV
The radar
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 254 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1721 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
006
ACUS11 KWNS 220948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220947
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-221445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KY/FAR EASTERN TN AND SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN
VA/WESTERN NC
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 220947Z - 221445Z
SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NC/FAR WESTERN VA AND FAR EASTERN
TN/SOUTHEAST KY...WITH A GRADUAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY/WESTERN VA AND SOUTHERN WV. HEAVIER SNOW
RATES WILL REACH 1-2 IN/HR.
DISCUSSION...A NEUTRAL-TILT MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND RELATED
STRONG JET STREAK EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH STEADY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING ACROSS AL EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 09Z/4AM EST...THE
SURFACE WET BULB 32F LINE GENERALLY EXTENDS ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER
AND NEAR/EAST OF THE TN/NC BORDER TO THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT.
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA WARM ADVECTION/DPVA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A COOLING/SATURATING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
LEAD TO INCREASINGLY PREVALENT/HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS. VARIOUS SHORT-TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AMPLE UPWARD MOTION COINCIDENT
WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP/SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER BETWEEN 500-650
MB...WHICH IS ATOP A SUB-FREEZING LOWEST 1-2 KM. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE WET BULB PROFILES OF REGIONAL 06Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. AS
SUCH...THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES SHOULD REACH 1-2 IN/HR BY THE 12Z-15Z
TIME FRAME /AND BEYOND/ WHILE HEAVIER SNOW EXPANDS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KY/SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN VA.
..GUYER.. 01/22/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...
LAT...LON 37628521 38308220 38117969 37007935 36238101 35268196
35218334 36208228 36548270 36658564 37628521SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 10:53 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Ballard, Barren, Butler, Caldwell and 23 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 22, 7:30 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Ballard, Barren, Bath and 95 more | 4 hr |
| Jan 22, 12:56 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Bath, Bell, Boyd, Boyle, Breathitt and 41 more | 4 hr |
| Jan 22, 5:38 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anson, Cabarrus, Gaston, Hoke, Mecklenburg, Montgomery and 6 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 22, 10:47 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Cabarrus, Caswell, Catawba, Chatham and 27 more | 6 hr |
| Jan 22, 3:42 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Caswell, Davidson, Davie, Forsyth and 12 more | 6 hr |
| Jan 22, 3:58 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chester, Crockett, Dyer, Fayette, Gibson, Hardeman and 6 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 22, 7:56 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albemarle, Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Augusta, Bath and 44 more | 4 hr |
| Jan 22, 11:34 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Accomack, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex and 28 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 22, 5:47 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alleghany, Amherst, Augusta, Bath, Bedford, Botetourt and 23 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.