Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 50

January 22, 201633 counties in North Carolina; Henry County, Mecklenburg County, City of Danville, Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 22, 2016, 11:47 AM EST for 33 counties in North Carolina; Henry County, Mecklenburg County, City of Danville, Virginia. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 22, 2016, 11:47 AM EST (16:47 UTC)
Expired: Jan 22, 2016, 5:45 PM EST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 36 counties

Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, City of Danville, VA, Henry County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 37 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 565 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 73 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 149 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 377 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

977 
ACUS11 KWNS 221648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221647 
NCZ000-VAZ000-222245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN NC...FAR SRN VA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 221647Z - 222245Z

SUMMARY...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN NC INTO SRN VA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
RATES SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME AREAS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
WRN KY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER SEWD ACROSS SC. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS INTO VA WHERE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS PRESENT. AT
THE SFC...TEMPS ARE IN THE 25 TO 30 F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE MCD
AREA WITH FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH SNOW
IN THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS. SFC TEMPS SHOULD ONLY WARM A FEW
DEGREES F THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL NC NWD INTO SRN VA ALLOWING MOST
AREAS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN
THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND SRN VA. SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS BUT SOME AREAS COULD CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL TEMPS WARM. PRECIPITATION
RATES COULD EXCEED 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION.

..BROYLES.. 01/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   35887793 35597862 35277963 35188025 35258094 35398139
            35708149 35928144 36218114 36478070 36737953 36667761
            36457724 36067742 35887793

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 22, 4:47 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell and 10 more	5 hr
Jan 22, 6:38 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anson, Cabarrus, Gaston, Hoke, Mecklenburg, Montgomery and 6 more	5 hr
Jan 22, 4:42 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamance, Alexander, Caswell, Davidson, Davie, Forsyth and 12 more	6 hr
Jan 22, 8:56 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Albemarle, Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Augusta, Bath and 44 more	4 hr
Jan 22, 12:34 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Accomack, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex and 28 more	5 hr
Jan 22, 6:47 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alleghany, Amherst, Augusta, Bath, Bedford, Botetourt and 23 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.