Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 49
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 22, 2016, 8:56 AM EST for 50 counties in Virginia; 28 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 22, 2016, 8:56 AM EST (13:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 22, 2016, 1:00 PM EST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 78 counties
Albemarle County, VA, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, Craig County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Highland County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Madison County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Warren County, VA, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Grant County, WV, Greenbrier County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Pendleton County, WV, Pocahontas County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Roane County, WV, Summers County, WV, Tucker County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wyoming County, WV
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 595 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 64 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 116 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 203 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
436
ACUS11 KWNS 221357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221356
VAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-221800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WV/VA
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 221356Z - 221800Z
SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WV AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY REACH 1-2 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.
DISCUSSION...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD
INTO/ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/JET STREAK CURRENTLY CROSSING THE TN
VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER BETWEEN
500-600 MB...THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM ROANOKE VA SAMPLED A
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CONDUCIVE FOR DENDRITIC/AGGREGATE SNOW GROWTH.
AS INCREASING UVV/S COINCIDE WITH A FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER AND
SATURATING LOW-LEVEL PROFILES...09Z SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY
RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
EXPAND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WV AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL VA THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES
WILL LIKELY REACH 1-2 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS THROUGH THE 18Z-21Z
TIME FRAME.
..GUYER.. 01/22/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 37628209 38568224 38998066 39367867 38627753 37517790
36657924 36648054 37328129 37628209SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 4:47 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alleghany, Bath, Bedford, Bland, Botetourt, Buchanan and 26 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 22, 11:47 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Henry, Mecklenburg, City of Danville | 6 hr |
| Jan 22, 12:34 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Accomack, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex and 28 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 22, 4:42 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albemarle, Alleghany, Amelia, Amherst, Appomattox, Arlington and 82 more | 6 hr |
| Jan 22, 6:47 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alleghany, Amherst, Augusta, Bath, Bedford, Botetourt and 23 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 22, 1:56 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Cabell, Kanawha, Lincoln, Logan, Mingo and 2 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.