Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 53
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 22, 2016, 12:56 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 22, 2016, 12:56 PM CST (18:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 22, 2016, 5:00 PM CST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 82 counties
Adair County, KY, Bath County, KY, Bell County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Carter County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clay County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Russell County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Lawrence County, OH, Bedford County, TN, Bledsoe County, TN, Campbell County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Clay County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Cumberland County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Macon County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Moore County, TN, Morgan County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Scott County, TN, Smith County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Van Buren County, TN, Warren County, TN, White County, TN, Wilson County, TN, Boone County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Wayne County, WV
The radar
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 218 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 429 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 488 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 796 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
815
ACUS11 KWNS 221856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221856
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-222300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...ERN KY...FAR SW WV
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 221856Z - 222300Z
SUMMARY...BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH OCCASIONAL SNOWFALL RATES
OVER 1 INCH PER HOURS...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WHILE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOUR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE BAND IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS FARTHER EWD/NEWD.
DISCUSSION...CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW FROM MIDDLE TN NEWD INTO SWRN WV. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE 850-MB LOW CENTER JUST TO THE S OF THIS BAND
OVER FAR NRN AL. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE ENEWD
ACROSS GA...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OFF THE SC
COAST...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL EWD/NEWD SHIFT OF THE FRONTOGENESIS
SUPPORTING THIS BAND. AS A RESULT...THE BAND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
DISPERSING OR REFORMING ACROSS AREAS TO THE NE BY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL
CONTINUE WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.
..MOSIER.. 01/22/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...
LAT...LON 35458691 35948688 36918594 37968446 38478326 38668253
38718189 38568142 38228119 37328205 36898282 36178440
35768496 35478536 35268595 35188666 35458691SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 10:53 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Ballard, Barren, Butler, Caldwell and 23 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 22, 3:47 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Bell, Boyle, Breathitt, Casey, Clay and 32 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 22, 7:30 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Ballard, Barren, Bath and 95 more | 4 hr |
| Jan 22, 3:58 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chester, Crockett, Dyer, Fayette, Gibson, Hardeman and 6 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 22, 7:56 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Braxton, Calhoun, Clay, Fayette, Gilmer and 22 more | 4 hr |
| Jan 22, 11:34 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barbour, Berkeley, Doddridge, Gilmer, Grant, Hampshire and 14 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 22, 5:47 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barbour, Berkeley, Grant, Greenbrier, Hampshire, Hardy and 11 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.