Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 46

January 22, 201612 counties in North Carolina; 10 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 22, 2016, 6:38 AM EST for 12 counties in North Carolina; 10 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 22, 2016, 6:38 AM EST (11:38 UTC)
Expired
Jan 22, 2016, 11:45 AM EST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 22 counties

Anson County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Polk County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Union County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

The radar

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 135 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2016-01-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2016-01-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 14 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1721 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
85 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

695 
ACUS11 KWNS 221138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221138 
NCZ000-SCZ000-221645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NC/NORTHERN SC

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 221138Z - 221645Z

SUMMARY...A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NC/FAR NORTHERN SC THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ICING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE NC
PIEDMONT AND FAR NORTHERN SC WHERE HOURLY ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD
REACH OR EXCEED 0.05 IN/HR FOR A MULTI-HOUR DURATION.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS
NC/NORTHERN SC EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN APPROACHING BAND OF MORE
CONSEQUENTIAL PRECIPITATION NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL GA AS PER
INFRARED SATELLITE/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE SURFACE WET-BULB FREEZING LINE AS OF
11Z/6AM EST GENERALLY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST...JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/SC
BORDER VICINITY. NEAR/NORTH OF THIS WET-BULB FREEZING
LINE...RAP/HRRR-BASED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERMAL PROFILES WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY CHARACTERIZED BY SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES BENEATH A WARMING FULL/PARTIAL MELTING LAYER BASED
AROUND/JUST ABOVE 850 MB. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
AND GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE NC PIEDMONT AND FAR NORTHERN SC/PIEDMONT.

..GUYER.. 01/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35557927 35117895 34667920 34248031 34448098 34838265
            35158270 35298241 35308147 35458041 35557927

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 22, 4:47 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell and 10 more5 hr
Jan 22, 11:47 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Alexander, Cabarrus, Caswell, Catawba, Chatham and 27 more6 hr
Jan 22, 4:42 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Alexander, Caswell, Davidson, Davie, Forsyth and 12 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.