Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Shreveport, LA

975 
WWUS54 KSHV 090216
SVSSHV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
816 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

LAC031-085-TXC403-419-090245-
/O.CON.KSHV.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-160309T0245Z/
DE SOTO LA-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-SHELBY TX-
816 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DE SOTO AND NORTHWESTERN SABINE PARISHES...CENTRAL
SABINE AND SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES...

AT 816 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ZWOLLE...OR 24
MILES SOUTH OF MANSFIELD...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MILAM...ZWOLLE...HEMPHILL...CONVERSE...ROSEVINE...OAK GROVE...PLEASANT
HILL...HUXLEY...SOUTH MANSFIELD...NOBLE...SEXTON...TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR
NORTH...PELICAN...BRONSON AND EVELYN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 9403 3145 9400 3147 9398 3149 9399
      3203 9384 3199 9344 3127 9373
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 202DEG 36KT 3168 9373 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

09

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
507 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.AVIATION...
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DOES NOT PROMOTE IDEAL
FLYING CONDITIONS WHATSOEVER. THE FIRST IN A WAVE OF DISTURBANCES
ALOFT IS CURRENTLY INFLUENCING ALL OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE TYR AND LFK TERMINAL. HAVE PREVAILED MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND TSRA FOR ALL BUT THE TYR/LFK TERMINAL THROUGH AT
LEAST 04Z WHEN THE BREAK IN THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NC TX SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD INTO OUR REMAINING NE TX TERMINAL
AS WELL AS THE TXK/SHV TERMINAL. THIS BREAK IF IT OCCURS AT ALL
WILL BE VERY TEMPORARY AS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM PROGS OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH CONVECTION QUICKLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NE TX NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THIS
CONVECTION TRAINING AND ENCOMPASSING ALL OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THUS...BEYOND 12Z WED...KEPT
PREVAILING 2SM TSRA AND IFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE WITH CONVECTION WITH STRONGER GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OF COURSE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION QUICKLY SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE FIRST OF MANY DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE EXTENDED TOR WATCH 38 TO PICK UP THE REMAINDER OF OUR
PARISHES IN N LA AND UNION COUNTY IN SRN AR...AS STORMS CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE EWD.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AS EVIDENCED BY
NEARLY A HALF AN INCH INCREASE IN THE PWAT FROM THE 12Z KSHV
SOUNDING TO THE 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING. THIS IS SEVERAL STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...AND QUITE INDICATIVE OF
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM. A
TRAINING AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SET UP WITH
THE SECOND WAVE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AND THE QPF FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
ALONE LOOKS TO REACH UPWARDS OF SIX TO TEN INCHES. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BECOME A CONCERN LATER TONIGHT...AS SOILS BECOME SATURATED
AND RAINFALL RATES INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING
THREAT... EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY S OF I-20...AS VERY
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OVERRULES THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE
ANY ONGOING FLASH FLOODING. CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE
SOME DURING THURSDAY HOWEVER...AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING OVHD IS FCST
TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NEWD. DRY-SLOTTING LOOKS TO
FURTHER DIMINISH OUR COVERAGE/INTENSITY...AT LEAST FOR A
TIME...AS WE MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVHD.

A SECONDARY CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO MOVE IN ON THE TAIL OF THE
PREVIOUS AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY...AND MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO SET
UP OVER TX IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK'S DISTURBANCES...
LEAVING US WITH QUIET WEATHER TO FINISH OUT THE FCST PD.

/12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  71  63  73 / 100 100 100  80
MLU  65  74  66  73 /  90  90  90  90
DEQ  62  68  59  66 / 100 100  90  90
TXK  63  69  59  68 / 100 100 100  80
ELD  64  71  63  71 / 100 100 100  90
TYR  62  70  60  69 / 100 100  80  70
GGG  64  69  61  71 / 100 100  90  70
LFK  66  72  62  74 / 100 100  90  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

12/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-091800-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FLASH FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SOILS BECOME SATURATED AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE INTENSITY OF RAINFALL PICKS UP AND STORMS BEGIN TO
MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT...EMBEDDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF
I 20. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO TEN INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT.

OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-091800-
MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE-
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY
AROUND MIDDAY...AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL COMBINE
TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BEGIN TO BE A PROBLEM AS EARLY AS TONIGHT
WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OF STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS THE INTENSITY OF RAINFALL PICKS UP AND STORMS BEGIN
TO MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...EMBEDDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO TEN
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
658 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MINDEN                  32.62N 93.29W
03/08/2016                   WEBSTER            LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER COMING INTO THE WEBSTER PARISH
            COURTHOUSE.

&&

PALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
707 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SIBLEY                  32.54N  93.29W
03/08/2016                   WEBSTER            LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVEN PINES ROAD FLOODED

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600067

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
708 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DOYLINE                 32.52N  93.42W
03/08/2016                   WEBSTER            LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING REPORTED SHILOH AND AMOS ROADS

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600069

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SIBLEY                  32.54N  93.29W
03/08/2016                   WEBSTER            LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BERSON ROAD IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600070

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
711 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SHREVEPORT              32.47N  93.80W
03/08/2016  M4.45 INCH       CADDO              LA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            4.55 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED FROM 3 PM UNTIL 653

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600066

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
714 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNE MINDEN            32.69N 93.24W
03/08/2016                   WEBSTER            LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER FLOWING INTO HOMES ON DOGWOOD TRAIL.

&&

PALMER