Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
500 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.AVIATION...
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED ACROSS OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE WIDESPREAD ACRSOS THE ENTIRE
FOUR STATE REGION WITH LITTLE TO ANY END IN SIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...PREVAILED TSRA WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITY. CONTINUES THESE
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A LITLE IMPROVEMENT TO MFR
LATER TODAY.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND OVENRIGHT ANS WELL.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MAJOR FLOODING FROM 5 TO NEAR 10 INCH RAINFALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FAR FROM OVER. NAM PWS ARE
INDICATING SEASONAL RECORD VALUES THIS AFTN AND EVE RIGHT AT 2
INCHES...SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD POSSIBLY MATCH
OR EXCEED PREVIOUS RAINFALL TOTALS...WHICH IS A SCARY THOUGHT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM
THURSDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND WILL BECOME STNRY OVER SOUTH TX LATER
THIS WEEK...THINKING VERY LIKELY THAT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
EXPANDED IN TIME FOR AT LEAST LA/AR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
REGIONS OF INTENSE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL OCCUR ON THE NORTHEAST
SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW. LOW LVL WIND SHEAR PICKS UP WITH LOW LVL
JET INCREASING SO SVR THREAT APPEARS EVERY BIT AS LIKELY AS
YESTERDAY...WITH SVRL SVR WARNINGS ISSUED IN ADDITION TO FLOODING.
SVR WX THREAT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. DEVELOPING SFC LOW
SE OF DFW METRO WILL ALSO REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE DUE TO
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW...CREATING A SHARP BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
I-30 OVER NE TX. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL DO LITTLE TO INHIBIT
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SHOULD INHIBIT SVR
STORMS. SVR THREAT WILL DIMINISH WITH A DECREASE IN LOW LVL
SHEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER COOLING IN MID
LVLS...DESPITE DEEP SOUTH FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW...MAY ENHANCE
STORM BOUYANCY THURSDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT LEAST THE VERTICAL
MOISTURE PROFILE BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...MEANING
THAT POPS SHOULD FALL BELOW CATEGORICAL...AS DRY LVLS SET UP
SANDWICHED BETWEEN MOIST LAYERS. HOWEVER...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AS UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENS
UP SATURDAY...TRANSITION TO DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL CLEAR OUT
PESKY LOW. THAT SAID...ONE MORE SMALL AND FAST MOVG UPPER LOW
APPEARS TO SPIN UP IN ZONAL FLOW AND SWEEP OHVD LATE SAT INTO
SUNDAY. NOT SURE WHETHER ANY MOISTURE WILL BE LEFTOVER BY
THEN...BUT IF SO...DYNAMICS WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER QUICK ROUND
OF POSSIBLE ELEVATED CONVECTION BEFORE WE ARE BLESSED WITH AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS OF FAIR WX IN EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  66  77  63 / 100 100  80  60
MLU  76  68  77  65 /  90  90  90  80
DEQ  69  62  68  59 / 100  90  90  70
TXK  70  63  70  59 / 100 100  80  60
ELD  72  67  75  62 / 100 100  90  80
TYR  72  63  72  60 / 100  60  70  50
GGG  71  65  75  61 / 100  80  70  50
LFK  74  65  78  61 / 100  90  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
539 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

ARZ073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ138-149>153-165>167-101145-
UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-
BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-
CALDWELL-LA SALLE-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-
SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
539 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE THREAT FOR MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE...AND LIKELY WILL
INCREASE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND BRING SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF RAIN TO AREAS THAT ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING...A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH EVEN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PERPETUATE ONGOING AREAS OF FLOODING. THE UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA...WILL FINALLY MOVE TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT...MAINLY TO ASSIST WITH STRANDED MOTORISTS IN FLOODED
ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE HIGH WATER RESCUES.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136-
137-101145-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-
CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
539 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BRING SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF
RAIN TO AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THAT ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING FROM 3 TO OVER 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN
THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH EVEN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PERPETUATE ONGOING AREAS OF FLOODING. THE UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA...WILL FINALLY MOVE TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY POSSIBLY BE NEEDED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY TO ASSIST MOTORISTS MOTORISTS IN FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

VII

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
732 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LONGVIEW                32.52N  94.76W
03/09/2016  M8.60 INCH       GREGG              TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORT FROM RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600119

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
738 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HENDERSON               32.16N  94.80W
03/09/2016                   RUSK               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HENDERSON FIRE WORKING EVACUATION OF WEST VALE
            APARTMENTS ON WEST MAIN...

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600120

35

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
741 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 NW HENDERSON          32.22N  94.87W
03/09/2016                   RUSK               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAJOR ROAD CLOSURES...US 259 AND FM 850...US 259 AND FM
            918...

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600121

35

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
746 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TYLER                   32.33N  95.30W
03/09/2016                   SMITH              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS ARE FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE. LIMBS
            ARE ALSO DOWNED AS WELL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600122

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
749 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MARSHALL                32.54N  94.35W
03/09/2016                   HARRISON           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 80 AND HIGHWAY 43 UNDER WATER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600123

35

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
751 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MONROE                  32.51N  92.08W
03/09/2016  M8.53 INCH       OUACHITA           LA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DELTA COMMUNITY COLLEGE IN MONROE REPORTS 8.53
            INCHES...

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600124

35