Alert archive / North Carolina / River Flood Warnings in 2016

River Flood Warning 28, NWS Raleigh, NC

October 8, 2016Chatham County, Lee County, North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this river flood warning at Oct 8, 2016, 2:28 PM EDT for Chatham County, Lee County, North Carolina. It took effect at Oct 8, 2016, 9:30 PM EDT. It was in force for 60 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 8, 2016, 2:28 PM EDT (18:28 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 8, 2016, 9:30 PM EDT
Expired
Oct 11, 2016, 9:05 AM EDT
In force
60 hr
Issued by
NWS Raleigh, NC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Chatham County, NC, Lee County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Deep River near Moncure (MONN7). The gauge peaked at 11.44 ft at Oct 9, 2016, 3:00 AM EDT.

actionminormoderate05101510/0810/0910/1010/1110/12
Action stage
8 ft
Minor stage
9 ft
Moderate stage
14 ft
Major stage
18 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02102000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

989 
WGUS42 KRAH 081828
FLWRAH


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
228 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a
Flood Warning for the following rivers in North Carolina...

  Deep River At Moncure affecting Chatham and Lee Counties
 ...Up to 5 inches of rain has fallen in the past 12 hours and
 an additional 3 inches are expected this afternoon and evening...
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC037-105-090628-
/O.NEW.KRAH.FL.W.0028.161009T0952Z-161011T1305Z/
/MONN7.1.ER.161009T0952Z.161010T0000Z.161011T0105Z.NO/
228 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Deep River At Moncure.
* from late tonight to Tuesday morning, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  1:45 PM Saturday the stage was 4.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage tonight
  tomorrow and continue to rise to near 9.7 feet late Sunday.The river
  will fall below flood stage late Monday.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, flooding is likely upstream of the gage site 
  along North Plank Road just south of highway 421 in Lee county, and
  on R Jordan Road north of highway 421 in Chatham county. At the 
  gage site, flooding reaches the base of the river gage housing, 
  but is confined to woods and pasture immediately adjacent to the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Cape Fear
 Moncure           9   4.1 Sat 02 PM   9.3   9.7   7.3   4.8   3.4

&&

LAT...LON 3567 7910 3563 7907 3559 7904 3546 7935
          3554 7939                   

$$
4 follow-up statements
666 
WGUS82 KRAH 090134
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
934 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Deep River At Moncure affecting Chatham and Lee Counties

  Cape Fear River At Lillington affecting Harnett County

  Cape Fear River At Fayetteville affecting Cumberland County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC037-105-091334-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0028.161009T0130Z-161010T0000Z/
/MONN7.1.ER.161008T2206Z.161009T0600Z.161009T1200Z.NO/
934 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

The Flood Warning continues for the Deep River At Moncure.
* until Sunday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:45 PM Saturday the stage was 10.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue rising to near 10.8 feet by after midnight 
  tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Flooding is likely upstream of the gage site 
  along North Plank Road just south of highway 421 in Lee county, 
  and on R Jordan Road north of highway 421 in Chatham county. At 
  the gage site, flooding reaches the base of the river gage 
  housing, but is confined to woods and pasture immediately adjacent 
  to the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Cape Fear
  Moncure      9  10.3 Sat 09 PM     9.0   6.8   5.9   4.3   2.7

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Moncure:        150.00

&&

LAT...LON 3567 7910 3563 7907 3559 7904 3546 7935
          3554 7939                   

$$

NCC085-091334-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-161010T1855Z/
/LLLN7.2.ER.161008T2151Z.161009T0600Z.161010T0655Z.NO/
934 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

The Flood Warning continues for the Cape Fear River At Lillington.
* At  9:15 PM Saturday the stage was 17.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue rising to near 20.6 feet after midnight 
  tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage early Monday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, The storm drains on the north bank are 
  inundated.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Cape Fear
  Lillington  14  17.9 Sat 09 PM    19.8  12.9   9.6   7.0   4.4

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Lillington      104.60

&&

LAT...LON 3549 7885 3537 7867 3525 7865 3526 7876
          3532 7877 3543 7892         

$$

NCC051-091334-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-161012T2020Z/
/FAYN7.2.ER.161008T2147Z.161009T1800Z.161012T0820Z.NO/
934 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

The Flood Warning continues for the Cape Fear River At 
  Fayetteville.
* At 9:00 PM Saturday the stage was 41.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue rising to near 55.8 feet by tomorrow 
  early afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday 
  morning.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Cape Fear
  Fayettevil  35  41.8 Sat 09 PM    53.3  52.4  41.6  33.9  26.2

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Fayetteville:    20.52

&&

LAT...LON 3525 7865 3511 7876 3485 7875 3485 7886
          3514 7890 3526 7876         

$$
670 
WGUS82 KRAH 090917
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
517 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016





...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Deep River At Moncure affecting Chatham and Lee Counties

  Cape Fear River At Lillington affecting Harnett County

  Cape Fear River At Fayetteville affecting Cumberland County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC037-105-092117-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-161010T1851Z/
/MONN7.1.ER.161008T2206Z.161009T0645Z.161010T0651Z.NO/
517 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Deep River At Moncure.
* At  4:45 AM Sunday the stage was 11.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding is likely upstream
  of the gage site along North Plank Road, just south of highway 421 
  in Lee county, and on R Jordan Road, north of highway 421 in Chatham
  county. At the gage site, flooding reaches the base of the river 
  gage housing, but is confined to woods and pasture immediately 
  adjacent to the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Cape Fear
 Moncure           9  11.2 Sun 05 AM   11.4  8.4   6.0   4.1   3.1      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 150.00
       
       
&&

LAT...LON 3567 7910 3563 7907 3559 7904 3546 7935
          3554 7939                   

$$

NCC085-092117-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-161010T2236Z/
/LLLN7.2.ER.161008T2151Z.161009T0646Z.161010T1036Z.NO/
517 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Lillington.
* At  4:45 AM Sunday the stage was 19.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, The storm drains on the north bank are 
  inundated.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Water threatens homes upstream on Riverside 
  Hills Drive.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Minor flood stage - the boat launch ramp and 
  wooden deck at Howards Barbeque are flooded.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu  

Cape Fear
 Lillington       14  19.3 Sun 05 AM  19.4  13.4   7.7   3.5   2.0      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 104.60
       

&&

LAT...LON 3549 7885 3537 7867 3525 7865 3526 7876
          3532 7877 3543 7892         

$$

NCC051-092117-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-161013T0130Z/
/FAYN7.2.ER.161008T2147Z.161010T0000Z.161012T1330Z.NO/
517 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Fayetteville.
* At  4:00 AM Sunday the stage was 51.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 56.4 feet by this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage late Wednesday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 58.0 feet, Major flood stage. The right bank widens to 
  several hundred feet and there is serious flooding of downstream 
  structures.
* Impact...At 50.0 feet, There is significant overflow on the left 
  bank about 2 miles downstream of the NC24 bridge.
* Impact...At 48.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. The upper parking areas
  at Riverside Bait and Tackle are flooded. There is significant 
  lowland flooding downstream.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, Flood stage. The boat ramp and lower parking 
  lot at Riverside Bait and Tackle off Person Street are flooded. The
  stage and lower seating area at the Cape Fear amphitheater are 
  flooded.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu  

Cape Fear
 Fayetteville     35  51.1 Sun 04 AM  53.5   52.5  43.2  35.5  26.7      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 20.52


&&

LAT...LON 3525 7865 3511 7876 3485 7875 3485 7886
          3514 7890 3526 7876         

$$

26
998 
WGUS82 KRAH 091343
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
942 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Deep River At Moncure affecting Chatham and Lee Counties

  Cape Fear River At Lillington affecting Harnett County

  Cape Fear River At Fayetteville affecting Cumberland County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC037-105-100142-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-161010T0452Z/
/MONN7.1.ER.161008T2206Z.161009T0645Z.161009T1652Z.NO/
942 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Deep River At Moncure.
* At  8:45 AM Sunday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* The river crested at 11.5 feet at 0345 AM EDT this morning.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall below flood stage
  this afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding is likely upstream
  of the gage site along North Plank Road just south of highway 421 
  in Lee county, and on R Jordan Road north of highway 421 in Chatham
  county. At the gage site, flooding reaches the base of the river 
  gage housing, but is confined to woods and pasture immediately 
  adjacent to the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Cape Fear
 Moncure           9  10.1 Sun 09 AM   6.7   5.4   4.3   3.7   2.9

&&

LAT...LON 3567 7910 3563 7907 3559 7904 3546 7935
          3554 7939                   

$$

NCC085-100142-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-161011T0840Z/
/LLLN7.2.ER.161008T2151Z.161009T0646Z.161010T2040Z.NO/
942 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Lillington.
* At  9:31 AM Sunday the stage was 18.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river crested at 19.4 feet at 0345 AM EDT this morning.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage  
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, The storm drains on the north bank are 
  inundated.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Water threatens homes upstream on Riverside 
  Hills Drive.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Minor flood stage - the boat launch ramp and 
  wooden deck at Howards Barbeque are flooded.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Cape Fear
 Lillington       14  18.8 Sun 10 AM  15.1  11.1   7.2   5.6   9.8

&&

LAT...LON 3549 7885 3537 7867 3525 7865 3526 7876
          3532 7877 3543 7892         

$$

NCC051-100142-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-161013T0227Z/
/FAYN7.2.ER.161008T2147Z.161010T0000Z.161012T1427Z.NO/
942 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Fayetteville.
* At  9:00 AM Sunday the stage was 55.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising slowly to near 56.9 feet this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday. 
* Impact...At 58.0 feet, Major flood stage. The right bank widens to 
  several hundred feet and there is serious flooding of downstream 
  structures.
* Impact...At 50.0 feet, There is significant overflow on the left 
  bank about 2 miles downstream of the NC24 bridge.
* Impact...At 48.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. The upper parking areas
  at Riverside Bait and Tackle are flooded. There is significant 
  lowland flooding downstream.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, Flood stage. The boat ramp and lower parking 
  lot at Riverside Bait and Tackle off Person Street are flooded. The
  stage and lower seating area at the Cape Fear amphitheater are 
  flooded.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Cape Fear
 Fayetteville     35  55.0 Sun 09 AM  53.9  45.2  35.9  27.3  25.5

&&

LAT...LON 3525 7865 3511 7876 3485 7875 3485 7886
          3514 7890 3526 7876         

$$
074 
WGUS82 KRAH 091747
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
147 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Deep River At Moncure affecting Chatham and Lee Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC037-105-091817-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-161010T0452Z/
/MONN7.1.ER.161008T2206Z.161009T0645Z.161009T1625Z.NO/
147 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Deep River At Moncure.
* At 12:45 PM Sunday the stage was 8.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* fell below flood stage at 12:25 PM Sunday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 6.7 feet by tomorrow 
  morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding is likely upstream
  of the gage site along North Plank Road just south of highway 421 
  in Lee county, and on R Jordan Road north of highway 421 in Chatham
  county. At the gage site, flooding reaches the base of the river 
  gage housing, but is confined to woods and pasture immediately 
  adjacent to the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Cape Fear
 Moncure           9   8.9 Sun 01 PM   6.7   5.4   4.3   3.7   2.9

&&

LAT...LON 3567 7910 3563 7907 3559 7904 3546 7935
          3554 7939                   

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 8, 2:00 PM EDT, 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 8, 2:00 PM EDT, 28 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Matthew will move slowly northeast along the Carolina
coast through tonight, then track offshore to the east on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1030 AM Saturday...

UPDATE: Portions of the wind advisory in the Sandhills and SE
Coastal Plain (Scotland, Hoke, Cumberland, Sampson and Wayne
counties) were upgraded to a high wind warning at 841 AM
EDT this morning based on recent trends, i.e. rapid pressure
falls spreading north of the NC/SC border attendant the center of
Hurricane Matthew tracking NE along the South Carolina coast. As
of 14Z, a ~10mb pressure gradient was noted between Raleigh (KRDU) and
Laurinburg (KMEB), a distance of 70 nm. See the latest NPWRAH
product for detailed information on expected wind gusts/impacts.
Sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph are largely
expected to be confined to the high wind warning area. -Vincent

Flash flood watch has been extended west and north to cover all of
central NC, except Forsyth County in the far NW.

The far NW part of the Triad, specifically the Winston-
Salem/Forsyth County area, should have the lowest probability of
flooding and we may leave them out. We will decide with the WPC/NWS
QFP conference call at 215 AM. Most models have come even more
northward and northeastward with the track of Matthew, and thus the
heavy rain bands are now forecast to eventually encompass much of
central NC. There is expected to be a very tight QPF gradient with
possibly the NW Piedmont in the gradient instead of the NE Piedmont
(as the heavier rains continue to spread west with the past few
model runs). Current data (radar/satellite) included also suggests
that the models more north and northeast track before the turn east
tonight may verify better.

The eyewall of Hurricane Matthew is now open with the northern
portion of the eyewall the only portion remaining in tact. The
forward motion is still 010 at 10kt with anticipation that the
system will turn NE along the SC coast beginning this morning. A
1025 MB surface high pressure was centered just off the New England
coast this morning, extending into our Piedmont Damming Region.
There continued to be a low level boundary near the coast, with the
deep easterly flow north of the storm pulling in PW's in excess of 2
inches as far north as Raleigh and 2.4 inches to near Fayetteville.

The ESE flow at H85 was 40-50 KT spreading deep moisture up and over
the CAD wedge. Rain and bands of heavy rain has developed/overspread
all of central NC. One heavy band was almost into the Greensboro
area. Although the SREF and some hi-res models suggest that the QPF
of the operational GFS/EC are overdone for our region, we are not
buying into that given the current data analysis.

We will expand the Flash Flood Watch to be safe to include most of
the region, with the far NW left out (Forsyth). QPF of 6-10 inches
will still be forecast in the south and east, with 4-7 central, and
2-4 elsewhere. Locally higher totals in the south and east. Less
over the NW.

The Wind Advisory will remain in place through the duration of the
event. Strongest gusts to 40-50 MPH in the south and east zones.
Even 40 mph may down some trees given the expected saturation.

Conditions will improve rather quickly when the cyclone begins the
turn east later tonight and Sunday morning. Our current ending times
of the Watches and advisories will remain into Sunday afternoon, and
possibly we can end them more quickly if the system moves more
quickly per WPC discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Saturday...

Skies should be clearing or mostly clear with diminishing breezes
Sunday evening and overnight. Lows in the 40s/50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Cool and dry ridging will build down the east coast...with strong
cold air advection producing highs slightly below normal...in the
mid to upper 60s Monday after a chilly morning with sunrise temps in
the upper 40s to very low 50s. Mins Tuesday morning will be even
cooler...45 to 50. Sunny skies will begin to moderate the airmass on
Tuesday and highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Upper ridge over the region will begin to breakdown and shift east
of the area by mid to late week, allowing a dry cold front to
approach the area from the nw late Thursday. Airmass will undergo
slow modification in advance of this front, warming back up to
seasonable readings Wednesday and Thursday, with temps potentially
cooling back down to below normal Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 740 AM Saturday...

A large shield of moderate to heavy rain, to the N and NW of the
center of Hurricane Matthew, will continue to translate NWD
across central NC today, as the hurricane tracks generally
parallel to the SC coast. Widespread, mainly IFR ceilings will
continue through this evening, then edge EWD with a resultant
lifting and scattering to MVFR or VFR from W to E tonight, as the
hurricane and associated rain shield likewise move E. NELY winds
will also steadily increase from S to N and peak this afternoon and
early evening - highest with gusts between 40-50 kts at FAY and RWI.
While the rain and sub-VFR ceilings will steadily move E and out of
our area later tonight, a strong NLY wind will continue throughout
the night and linger into the day Sunday, as a continental polar
(cool and dry)air mass rushes into our region in the wake of Matthew.

Outlook: After VFR conditions in high pressure Sun-Mon, NELY low
level flow around that high may promote the occurrence of MVFR
ceilings Tue-Wed, mainly at ERN TAF sites.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Widespread life-threatening flash flooding this afternoon will
linger well into tonight...perhaps for much of Sunday as well...as
several additional inches of rain are expected this afternoon into
the evening. Details can be found in the latest flash flood warning
products.

Final rainfall totals will be eye-popping...10+ inches in the
southeast...producing moderate to major flooding at a nearly every
river flood forecast point. The Little River at Manchester will rise
above its all time record, which was set only last week. Widespread
river flooding on the lower reaches of the Neuse and Cape Fear
rivers will continue well into next week. For details, see
www.weather.gov/ahps2 .

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ078-085-086-088-
089.
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for NCZ007>011-
022>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ011-026>028-041>043-
073>077-083-084.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...mlm
AVIATION...MWS
HYDROLOGY...MLM
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 8, 9:28 AM EDT, 5 hours before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
928 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

NCZ011-026>028-041>043-073>077-083-084-091330-
HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-
MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-
928 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FORWARD REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES...
POWER LINES...PROPERTY DAMAGE...OR MEASURED WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH.

NCZ007>010-022>025-038>040-091330-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
928 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ021-091330-
FORSYTH-
928 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ078-085-086-088-089-091330-
WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
928 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FORWARD REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES...
POWER LINES...PROPERTY DAMAGE...OR MEASURED WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 8, 2:11 PM EDT, 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
211 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     TROPICAL STORM   POPE AFB                35.17N 79.01W
10/08/2016                   CUMBERLAND         NC   AWOS

            POPE AIR FORCE BASE (KPOB) REPORTED A
            SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 MPH GUSTING TO 58 MPH
            AT 203 PM EDT.

&&

VINCENT
Local storm report, Oct 8, 2:17 PM EDT, 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
217 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE WILSON             35.72N 77.92W
10/08/2016                   WILSON             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 301 IN WILSON IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Oct 8, 2:18 PM EDT, 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
218 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNW ROANOKE RAPIDS    36.46N 77.65W
10/08/2016                   HALIFAX            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED IN HALIFAX COUNTY DUE
            TO FLOODING.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Oct 8, 2:23 PM EDT, 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
223 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     TROPICAL STORM   2 NE FUQUAY-VARINA      35.61N 78.78W
10/08/2016                   WAKE               NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            DOWNED TREE BLOCKING LEFT LANE OF SUNSET
            LAKE ROAD NEAR MCLAURIN ROAD.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Oct 8, 2:26 PM EDT, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
226 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TROPICAL STORM   5 S NEW HOPE            35.74N 78.54W
10/08/2016                   WAKE               NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            THREE TREES DOWN.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Oct 8, 2:27 PM EDT, 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
227 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 PM     TROPICAL STORM   4 ENE HOPE MILLS        34.99N 78.89W
10/08/2016                   CUMBERLAND         NC   ASOS

            PEAK WIND GUST OF 56 MPH REPORTED AT THE
            FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT (KFAY) AT 214
            PM EDT.

&&

VINCENT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 7, 10:09 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRAHHarnett4 days
Oct 7, 10:09 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRAHCumberland6 days
Oct 7, 10:12 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRAHJohnston3 days
Oct 7, 10:12 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRAHJohnston5 days
Oct 7, 10:12 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRAHWayne11 days
Oct 7, 10:18 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRAHEdgecombe7 days
Oct 7, 10:18 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRAHEdgecombe12 days
Oct 8, 8:01 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningRAHAnson, Hoke, Richmond, Scotland6 hr
Oct 8, 8:37 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningRAHCumberland, Harnett, Hoke, Lee, Montgomery, Moore and 2 more6 hr
Oct 8, 8:41 AM EDTHigh Wind WarningRAHCumberland, Hoke, Sampson, Scotland, Wayne18 hr
Oct 8, 9:13 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningRAHAnson, Stanly26 hr
Oct 8, 10:22 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningRAHDurham, Johnston, Wake, Wayne6 hr
Oct 8, 11:32 AM EDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyRAHCumberland, Hoke, Sampson6 hr
Oct 8, 12:09 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRAHChatham48 hr
Oct 8, 1:09 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyRAHDurham, Johnston, Wake, Wayne6 hr
Oct 8, 1:21 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRAHAlamance, Chatham, Davidson, Forsyth, Guilford, Orange and 2 more8 hr
Oct 8, 1:31 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRAHAnson, Chatham, Harnett, Lee, Montgomery, Moore and 3 more6 hr
Oct 8, 2:04 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRAHEdgecombe, Franklin, Halifax, Nash, Warren, Wilson8 hr
Oct 8, 2:32 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRAHAlamance, Granville, Orange, Person, Vance8 hr
Oct 8, 2:37 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRAHFranklin69 hr
Oct 8, 3:47 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRAHAlamance37 hr
Oct 8, 3:50 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRAHDavidson, Forsyth, Guilford, Randolph8 hr
Oct 8, 3:54 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRAHEdgecombe, Halifax, Nash5 days
Oct 8, 5:29 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyRAHCumberland, Hoke, Sampson8 hr
Oct 8, 6:55 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyRAHDurham, Edgecombe, Johnston, Nash, Wake, Wayne and 1 more7 hr
Oct 8, 7:49 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRAHChatham, Harnett, Lee, Montgomery, Moore, Richmond and 1 more6 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2016Every river flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.