Flash Flood Warning 59, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
354 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Matthew will move slowly northeast along the Carolina
coast through tonight, then track offshore to the east on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM Saturday...

Through tonight: A high wind warning remains in effect for portions
of the Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain and a wind advisory remains in
effect elsewhere along the Hwy 1 corridor in association with a
tight mslp gradient and strong pressure falls this afternoon and
evening, followed by strong pressure rises as Matthew begins to
assume a more easterly track offshore and precip ends from west to
east late tonight/sunday morning. Record breaking rainfall and
flooding are likely across portions of central NC today/tonight in
association with Hurricane Matthew. Expect clouds to abate and winds
to gradually diminish during the day Sunday as Matthew tracks further
offshore and the mslp gradient weakens. -Vincent

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Saturday...

Skies should be clearing or mostly clear with diminishing breezes
Sunday evening and overnight. Lows in the 40s/50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Cool and dry ridging will build down the east coast...with strong
cold air advection producing highs slightly below normal...in the
mid to upper 60s Monday after a chilly morning with sunrise temps in
the upper 40s to very low 50s. Mins Tuesday morning will be even
cooler...45 to 50. Sunny skies will begin to moderate the airmass on
Tuesday and highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Upper ridge over the region will begin to breakdown and shift east
of the area by mid to late week, allowing a dry cold front to
approach the area from the nw late Thursday. Airmass will undergo
slow modification in advance of this front, warming back up to
seasonable readings Wednesday and Thursday, with temps potentially
cooling back down to below normal Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...

Strong N/NE winds and MVFR/IFR ceilings assoc/w heavy rain can be
expected at all terminals this afternoon and evening, particularly
the eastern terminals (FAY/RWI/RDU). Conditions will begin to
improve from west to east overnight, first at the INT/GSO terminals
and last at the FAY/RWI terminals. As precip ends and ceilings
begin to improve late tonight and early Sun morning, a second surge
of strong northerly winds is expected to occur in assoc/w strong
pressure rises as Matthew begins tracking east offshore the Carolina
coast. N to NNW winds will gradually diminish during the day Sunday,
with VFR conditions likely at all terminals by mid/late afternoon,
last at the RWI terminal. -Vincent

Outlook: After VFR conditions in high pressure Sun-Mon, NELY low
level flow around that high may promote the occurrence of MVFR
ceilings Tue-Wed, mainly at ERN TAF sites. -MWS

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Widespread life-threatening flash flooding this afternoon will
linger well into tonight...perhaps for much of Sunday as well...as
several additional inches of rain are expected this afternoon into
the evening. Details can be found in the latest flash flood warning
products.

Final rainfall totals will be eye-popping...10+ inches in the
southeast...producing moderate to major flooding at a nearly every
river flood forecast point. The Little River at Manchester will rise
above its all time record, which was set only last week. Widespread
river flooding on the lower reaches of the Neuse and Cape Fear
rivers will continue well into next week. For details, see
www.weather.gov/ahps2 .

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ078-085-086-088-
089.
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for NCZ007>011-
022>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ011-026>028-041>043-
073>077-083-084.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT/MWS
HYDROLOGY...MLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
404 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

NCZ011-026>028-041>043-073>077-083-084-092015-
HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-
MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-
404 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007>010-022>025-038>040-092015-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
404 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ021-092015-
FORSYTH-
404 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW DOWNED TREES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ078-085-086-088-089-092015-
WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
404 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
439 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SMITHFIELD              35.51N 78.34W
10/08/2016                   JOHNSTON           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE WATER RESCUES IN JOHNSTON COUNTY.
            PEOPLE TRAPPED IN HOMES AND ON TOP OF
            VEHICLES.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
449 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TROPICAL STORM   2 NW GARNER             35.71N 78.65W
10/08/2016                   WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON ROAD AND POWERLINES. .

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
450 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TROPICAL STORM   4 SSE RALEIGH           35.77N 78.64W
10/08/2016                   WAKE               NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS WAKE COUNTY.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
452 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNW LAKE WHEELER      35.74N 78.75W
10/08/2016  M8.28 INCH       WAKE               NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
456 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW NASHVILLE          35.97N 77.97W
10/08/2016                   NASH               NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES THROUGHOUT NASH
            COUNTY DUE TO FLOODING AND DOWNED TREES.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
506 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W YOUNGSVILLE         36.03N 78.51W
10/08/2016                   FRANKLIN           NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            ONE LANE FLOODED AT US-1 AND HOLDEN ROAD.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM