River Flood Warning 19, NWS Raleigh, NC

926 
WGUS42 KRAH 082021
FLWRAH


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
420 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the 
following rivers in North Carolina...
  Cape Fear River At Lillington affecting Harnett County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC085-090820-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0019.161008T2340Z-161011T0720Z/
/LLLN7.2.ER.161008T2340Z.161009T1800Z.161010T1920Z.NO/
420 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for The Cape Fear River At Lillington.
* from this evening to late Monday night, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 3:46 PM Saturday the stage was 9.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is expected to rise above flood stage by this evening 
  and continue to rise to near 19.4 tomorrow afternoon.The river 
  will fall below flood stage late Monday.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, The storm drains on the north bank are 
  inundated.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Cape Fear
 Lillington       14   9.2 Sat 04 PM  19.1  15.6  11.6   7.0   5.2

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Lillington:     104.60

&&

LAT...LON 3549 7885 3537 7867 3525 7865 3526 7876
          3532 7877 3543 7892         

$$

666 
WGUS82 KRAH 090134
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
934 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Deep River At Moncure affecting Chatham and Lee Counties

  Cape Fear River At Lillington affecting Harnett County

  Cape Fear River At Fayetteville affecting Cumberland County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC037-105-091334-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0028.161009T0130Z-161010T0000Z/
/MONN7.1.ER.161008T2206Z.161009T0600Z.161009T1200Z.NO/
934 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

The Flood Warning continues for the Deep River At Moncure.
* until Sunday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:45 PM Saturday the stage was 10.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue rising to near 10.8 feet by after midnight 
  tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Flooding is likely upstream of the gage site 
  along North Plank Road just south of highway 421 in Lee county, 
  and on R Jordan Road north of highway 421 in Chatham county. At 
  the gage site, flooding reaches the base of the river gage 
  housing, but is confined to woods and pasture immediately adjacent 
  to the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Cape Fear
  Moncure      9  10.3 Sat 09 PM     9.0   6.8   5.9   4.3   2.7

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Moncure:        150.00

&&

LAT...LON 3567 7910 3563 7907 3559 7904 3546 7935
          3554 7939                   

$$

NCC085-091334-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-161010T1855Z/
/LLLN7.2.ER.161008T2151Z.161009T0600Z.161010T0655Z.NO/
934 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

The Flood Warning continues for the Cape Fear River At Lillington.
* At  9:15 PM Saturday the stage was 17.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue rising to near 20.6 feet after midnight 
  tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage early Monday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, The storm drains on the north bank are 
  inundated.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Cape Fear
  Lillington  14  17.9 Sat 09 PM    19.8  12.9   9.6   7.0   4.4

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Lillington      104.60

&&

LAT...LON 3549 7885 3537 7867 3525 7865 3526 7876
          3532 7877 3543 7892         

$$

NCC051-091334-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-161012T2020Z/
/FAYN7.2.ER.161008T2147Z.161009T1800Z.161012T0820Z.NO/
934 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

The Flood Warning continues for the Cape Fear River At 
  Fayetteville.
* At 9:00 PM Saturday the stage was 41.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue rising to near 55.8 feet by tomorrow 
  early afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday 
  morning.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Cape Fear
  Fayettevil  35  41.8 Sat 09 PM    53.3  52.4  41.6  33.9  26.2

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Fayetteville:    20.52

&&

LAT...LON 3525 7865 3511 7876 3485 7875 3485 7886
          3514 7890 3526 7876         

$$

670 
WGUS82 KRAH 090917
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
517 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016





...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Deep River At Moncure affecting Chatham and Lee Counties

  Cape Fear River At Lillington affecting Harnett County

  Cape Fear River At Fayetteville affecting Cumberland County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC037-105-092117-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-161010T1851Z/
/MONN7.1.ER.161008T2206Z.161009T0645Z.161010T0651Z.NO/
517 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Deep River At Moncure.
* At  4:45 AM Sunday the stage was 11.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding is likely upstream
  of the gage site along North Plank Road, just south of highway 421 
  in Lee county, and on R Jordan Road, north of highway 421 in Chatham
  county. At the gage site, flooding reaches the base of the river 
  gage housing, but is confined to woods and pasture immediately 
  adjacent to the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Cape Fear
 Moncure           9  11.2 Sun 05 AM   11.4  8.4   6.0   4.1   3.1      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 150.00
       
       
&&

LAT...LON 3567 7910 3563 7907 3559 7904 3546 7935
          3554 7939                   

$$

NCC085-092117-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-161010T2236Z/
/LLLN7.2.ER.161008T2151Z.161009T0646Z.161010T1036Z.NO/
517 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Lillington.
* At  4:45 AM Sunday the stage was 19.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, The storm drains on the north bank are 
  inundated.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Water threatens homes upstream on Riverside 
  Hills Drive.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Minor flood stage - the boat launch ramp and 
  wooden deck at Howards Barbeque are flooded.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu  

Cape Fear
 Lillington       14  19.3 Sun 05 AM  19.4  13.4   7.7   3.5   2.0      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 104.60
       

&&

LAT...LON 3549 7885 3537 7867 3525 7865 3526 7876
          3532 7877 3543 7892         

$$

NCC051-092117-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-161013T0130Z/
/FAYN7.2.ER.161008T2147Z.161010T0000Z.161012T1330Z.NO/
517 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Fayetteville.
* At  4:00 AM Sunday the stage was 51.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 56.4 feet by this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage late Wednesday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 58.0 feet, Major flood stage. The right bank widens to 
  several hundred feet and there is serious flooding of downstream 
  structures.
* Impact...At 50.0 feet, There is significant overflow on the left 
  bank about 2 miles downstream of the NC24 bridge.
* Impact...At 48.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. The upper parking areas
  at Riverside Bait and Tackle are flooded. There is significant 
  lowland flooding downstream.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, Flood stage. The boat ramp and lower parking 
  lot at Riverside Bait and Tackle off Person Street are flooded. The
  stage and lower seating area at the Cape Fear amphitheater are 
  flooded.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu  

Cape Fear
 Fayetteville     35  51.1 Sun 04 AM  53.5   52.5  43.2  35.5  26.7      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 20.52


&&

LAT...LON 3525 7865 3511 7876 3485 7875 3485 7886
          3514 7890 3526 7876         

$$

26

998 
WGUS82 KRAH 091343
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
942 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Deep River At Moncure affecting Chatham and Lee Counties

  Cape Fear River At Lillington affecting Harnett County

  Cape Fear River At Fayetteville affecting Cumberland County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC037-105-100142-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-161010T0452Z/
/MONN7.1.ER.161008T2206Z.161009T0645Z.161009T1652Z.NO/
942 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Deep River At Moncure.
* At  8:45 AM Sunday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* The river crested at 11.5 feet at 0345 AM EDT this morning.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall below flood stage
  this afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding is likely upstream
  of the gage site along North Plank Road just south of highway 421 
  in Lee county, and on R Jordan Road north of highway 421 in Chatham
  county. At the gage site, flooding reaches the base of the river 
  gage housing, but is confined to woods and pasture immediately 
  adjacent to the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Cape Fear
 Moncure           9  10.1 Sun 09 AM   6.7   5.4   4.3   3.7   2.9

&&

LAT...LON 3567 7910 3563 7907 3559 7904 3546 7935
          3554 7939                   

$$

NCC085-100142-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-161011T0840Z/
/LLLN7.2.ER.161008T2151Z.161009T0646Z.161010T2040Z.NO/
942 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Lillington.
* At  9:31 AM Sunday the stage was 18.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river crested at 19.4 feet at 0345 AM EDT this morning.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage  
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, The storm drains on the north bank are 
  inundated.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Water threatens homes upstream on Riverside 
  Hills Drive.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Minor flood stage - the boat launch ramp and 
  wooden deck at Howards Barbeque are flooded.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Cape Fear
 Lillington       14  18.8 Sun 10 AM  15.1  11.1   7.2   5.6   9.8

&&

LAT...LON 3549 7885 3537 7867 3525 7865 3526 7876
          3532 7877 3543 7892         

$$

NCC051-100142-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-161013T0227Z/
/FAYN7.2.ER.161008T2147Z.161010T0000Z.161012T1427Z.NO/
942 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Fayetteville.
* At  9:00 AM Sunday the stage was 55.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising slowly to near 56.9 feet this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday. 
* Impact...At 58.0 feet, Major flood stage. The right bank widens to 
  several hundred feet and there is serious flooding of downstream 
  structures.
* Impact...At 50.0 feet, There is significant overflow on the left 
  bank about 2 miles downstream of the NC24 bridge.
* Impact...At 48.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. The upper parking areas
  at Riverside Bait and Tackle are flooded. There is significant 
  lowland flooding downstream.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, Flood stage. The boat ramp and lower parking 
  lot at Riverside Bait and Tackle off Person Street are flooded. The
  stage and lower seating area at the Cape Fear amphitheater are 
  flooded.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Cape Fear
 Fayetteville     35  55.0 Sun 09 AM  53.9  45.2  35.9  27.3  25.5

&&

LAT...LON 3525 7865 3511 7876 3485 7875 3485 7886
          3514 7890 3526 7876         

$$

120 
WGUS82 KRAH 091838
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
238 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Cape Fear River At Fayetteville affecting Cumberland County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina..
  Cape Fear River At Lillington affecting Harnett County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC085-100638-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-161011T0840Z/
/LLLN7.2.ER.161008T2151Z.161009T0646Z.161010T2040Z.NO/
238 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Lillington.
* At 12:46 PM Sunday the stage was 18.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 19.4 feet at 245 AM early this
  morning. The river will continue to fall to below flood stage  
  early tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Water threatens homes upstream on Riverside 
  Hills Drive.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Minor flood stage - the boat launch ramp and 
  wooden deck at Howards Barbeque are flooded.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Cape Fear
 Lillington       14  18.3 Sun 01 PM  15.1  11.1   7.2   5.6   9.8

&&

LAT...LON 3549 7885 3537 7867 3525 7865 3526 7876
          3532 7877 3543 7892         

$$

NCC051-100638-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-161013T0121Z/
/FAYN7.3.ER.161008T2147Z.161010T0000Z.161012T1321Z.NO/
238 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Fayetteville.
* At  2:00 PM Sunday the stage was 57.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 58.0 feet this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday.
* Impact...At 60.0 feet, Water begins to bypass the left end of the 
  NC24 bridge for several hundred yards. Two miles downstream, the 
  left bank widens to 1000 feet and to a depth of several feet.
* Impact...At 58.0 feet, Major flood stage. The right bank widens to 
  several hundred feet and there is serious flooding of downstream 
  structures.
* Impact...At 50.0 feet, There is significant overflow on the left 
  bank about 2 miles downstream of the NC24 bridge.
* Impact...At 48.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. The upper parking areas
  at Riverside Bait and Tackle are flooded. There is significant 
  lowland flooding downstream.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, Flood stage. The boat ramp and lower parking 
  lot at Riverside Bait and Tackle off Person Street are flooded. The
  stage and lower seating area at the Cape Fear amphitheater are 
  flooded.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Cape Fear
 Fayetteville     35  57.4 Sun 02 PM  55.9  45.3  35.5  27.2  25.6

&&

LAT...LON 3525 7865 3511 7876 3485 7875 3485 7886
          3514 7890 3526 7876         

$$

250 
WGUS82 KRAH 100213
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1013 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Cape Fear River At Lillington affecting Harnett County

  Cape Fear River At Fayetteville affecting Cumberland County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC085-101413-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-161010T2312Z/
/LLLN7.2.ER.161008T2151Z.161009T0646Z.161010T1112Z.NO/
1013 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Lillington.
* At 12:46 PM Sunday the stage was 18.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, The storm drains on the north bank are 
  inundated.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Water threatens homes upstream on Riverside 
  Hills Drive.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Minor flood stage - the boat launch ramp and 
  wooden deck at Howards Barbeque are flooded.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet, Action stage. The river is at bankfull.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Cape Fear
 Lillington       14  18.3 Sun 01 PM  10.0   6.1   5.4   9.8      

&&

LAT...LON 3549 7885 3537 7867 3525 7865 3526 7876
          3532 7877 3543 7892         

$$

NCC051-101413-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-161013T0136Z/
/FAYN7.3.ER.161008T2147Z.161010T0045Z.161012T1336Z.NO/
1013 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Fayetteville.
* At  9:00 PM Sunday the stage was 58.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  late Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 60.0 feet, Water begins to bypass the left end of the 
  NC24 bridge for several hundred yards. Two miles downstream, the 
  left bank widens to 1000 feet and to a depth of several feet.
* Impact...At 58.0 feet, Major flood stage. The right bank widens to 
  several hundred feet and there is serious flooding of downstream 
  structures.
* Impact...At 50.0 feet, There is significant overflow on the left 
  bank about 2 miles downstream of the NC24 bridge.
* Impact...At 48.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. The upper parking areas
  at Riverside Bait and Tackle are flooded. There is significant 
  lowland flooding downstream.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, Flood stage. The boat ramp and lower parking 
  lot at Riverside Bait and Tackle off Person Street are flooded. The
  stage and lower seating area at the Cape Fear amphitheater are 
  flooded.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, Action Stage. Banks begin to overflow.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Cape Fear
 Fayetteville     35  58.8 Sun 09 PM  46.8  35.7  26.7  27.0      


&&

LAT...LON 3525 7865 3511 7876 3485 7875 3485 7886
          3514 7890 3526 7876         

$$

912 
WGUS82 KRAH 100621
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
221 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2016





...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Cape Fear River At Lillington affecting Harnett County


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC085-100651-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-161010T2312Z/
/LLLN7.2.ER.161008T2151Z.161009T0646Z.161010T0258Z.NO/
221 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Cape Fear River At Lillington.
* At  2:00 AM Monday the stage was 12.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* fell below flood stage at 10:58 PM Sunday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall below 12 feet this morning, 
  and to 8.0 feet by tomorrow  morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Minor flood stage - the boat launch ramp and 
  wooden deck at Howards Barbeque are flooded.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet, Action stage. The river is at bankfull.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri  

Cape Fear
 Lillington       14  12.9 Mon 02 AM   11.6   8.1   5.5   4.8   9.2      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 104.60


&&

LAT...LON 3549 7885 3537 7867 3525 7865 3526 7876
          3532 7877 3543 7892         

$$

26

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
940 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist flow from the southeast into North Carolina will persist
tonight. Hurricane Matthew will track along or just off the coast of
South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Saturday night.
A cold front will cross our region Sunday night through early
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 940 PM Friday...

The center of Hurricane Matthew was located about 50 miles ESE of
St. Simons Island GA at 9 pm, moving nearly due northward toward the
central coast of SC but expected to take a northeasterly turn as it
approaches the Hilton Head Island area. The fringe effects of the
hurricane have already been felt throughout the day in NC with a
long moist Atlantic fetch and broad deep moist upglide contributing
to widespread light rain or drizzle for much of the day. But the
outer bands of heavier rain associated with Matthew are already
starting to move into southern portions of the forecast area, and
this trend will hold through the night with moderate to heavy
rainfall spreading across central and eastern NC from the south, in
line with the earlier forecast. A focus of the heaviest precip NW of
the center appears increasingly likely with strengthening upper
divergence in a band over the NC Coastal Plain, and if this is as
intense as the ECMWF/GFS depict, we could see isolated extreme
rainfall totals (above the already-concerning expectations of 5-12
inches from Raleigh to the south and east) over the Coastal Plain
and far eastern Piedmont and Sandhills late tonight through mid
afternoon Sat. No change at this time to the flash flood watch or to
the wind advisory, as winds accelerate from the NE with pronounced
widespread gustiness starting late tonight. -GIH

1025 MB surface high pressure was centered across interior New
England this afternoon and ridges southwest into the Mid Atlantic
and Piedmont of Virginia and the Carolinas. A coastal front is
observed across the coastal region of the Carolinas as well. The
easterly flow across the region was pushing a warmer airmass with
temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 west up and over the CAD
wedge an has generated areas of rain and rain showers. Convection
allowing models indicate that the shower activity should continue
into the evening hours and then become more focused across the
Piedmont region toward midnight. More widespread rain and rain
showers, more directly associated with the tropical cyclone,
will spread north from SC during the predawn hours. Rainfall
amounts though daybreak may approach 2 inches near the SC border
to an inch in most other locations with perhaps a half inch to an
inch to the northeast near Roanoke Rapids.

Steady east to northeast winds at around 10 to 15 MPH with gusts
toward 20 MPH will be the rule for the evening into the overnight.
As Matthew draws closer, the wind field associated with the
tropical cyclone will overspread the area with sustained winds of
20 MPH and gusts to near 35 MPH will move into the Southern
Piedmont and Sandhills region during the predawn hours. Given this
and increasing winds on Saturday, a Wind Advisory has been issued
for the Southern Piedmont, Sandhills, the Coastal Plain and the
eastern Piedmont including Wake County from midnight through
Sunday.

Lows tonight will range in the lower 60s in the Triad to the
around 70 in the Coastal Plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM Friday...

...Threat of life threatening flooding increasing across the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain of NC as ideal setup for enhanced
tropical rain becomes established...

...More northward track of Matthew results in stronger wind gusts
which has increased the threat of power outages...

It is important to note that the explicit impacts from Matthew
regarding precipitation totals and especially wind magnitudes are
highly dependent on the tropical cyclone track. Given that the
guidance from the NHC and NWP continue to trend northward and
wetter today, we have made a notable increase to precipitation
amounts and winds.

The biggest threat and impact arises from the potential for extremely
heavy rain with amounts forecast to exceed 10 inches across the
southeastern and eastern portions of the CWA. The setup for
tremendous rainfall associated with a non-land falling tropical
cyclone are nearly ideal.

The combination of an approaching tropical cyclone with deep
tropical moisture, a coastal front and a cold air damming air mass
in the Piedmont providing an enhance region of ascent northward of
the tropical cyclone and the approach of an upper trough and cold
front that will lead to a left of track precipitation distribution
should lead to storm total rain amounts that range near a foot
across Sampson County. Heavily leaned on WPC QPF guidance to
produce storm total rain amounts of 9-12+ inches across Sampson,
Wayne and Cumberland Counties. Rain amounts will range between 4
and 8 inches across the remainder of the Coastal plain, eastern
Piedmont and Southern Piedmont. A total of 3 to 6 inches can be
expected in the Triangle with a less significant 1 to around 2
inches in the Triad. Given these amounts, the Flash Flood Watch
has been expanded northward to include Wake County and portions of
the northern Coastal Plain and the Southern Piedmont. These rain
fall amounts will likely lead to Flash flooding and river
flooding with dam breaks possible. Additional hydrologic details
are contained in the Hydrology section below.

Given the more northward adjustment to track of Matthew, central
NC is likely to be enveloped by a larger portion of the TC wind
field. Accordingly we have increased the magnitudes of the wind
and wind gusts and issued a Wind Advisory for a portion of the
area. Maximum wind gusts should range around 50 MPH across Sampson
County with wind gusts in excess 40 MPH possible to the southeast
of U.S. 1. Given wet soils and the potential for a prolonged
period of wind gusts that will extend into Sunday afternoon, we
are concerned that a fair number of trees and power lines could
be downed, especially Saturday afternoon and evening. Strong wind
gusts may linger will into Sunday despite clearing and drying as
stronger winds aloft are mixed downward. -Blaes
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 914 PM Friday...

Underneath shortwave ridging aloft, a strong +1030 mb sfc high will
ridge down the east coast in the wake of Matthew, with associated
strong cold air advection bringing Central NC its first real taste
of fall, as a cool and dry airmass settles into the area for the
first half of the work week. Low-level thicknesses are forecast to
fall to 1340-1350 meters(20 to 30 meters below normal)both Monday
and Tuesday mornings, which historically produces min temps down
into the lower to mid 40s. If this happens it will be the first time
many areas see sub 50 degree readings since early May 2016. Highs
Monday and Tuesday in the mid 60s to lower lower 70s.

Upper ridge over the region will begin to breakdown and shift east
of the area by mid to late week, allowing a dry cold front to
approach the area from the nw late Thursday. Airmass will undergo
slow modification in advance of this front, warming back up to
seasonable readings Wednesday and Thursday, with temps potentially
cooling back down to below normal Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 751 PM Friday...

Adverse aviation conditions will prevail through the forecast
period.

Easterly upglide atop the low-level cool air wedged east of the
mountains will continue to support IFR to LIFR ceilings across the
area this evening and overnight with periods of light rain and/or
drizzle.

By daybreak, the outer most rainband associated with Hurricane
Matthew will advance north into southern portions of the forecast
area, impacting KFAY first and will then spread north towards KRDU
and KRWI between 15 to 18z. These areas will then see a 12
to 15 hour period of moderate to heavy rainfall across the area,
continuing into the evening before tapering off from west to east
overnight. Expect IFR to LIFR conditions to persist with no
improvement throughout the day. Additionally, NELY winds will begin
to increase during the predawn hours, peaking between 18z Saturday
to 06z Sunday. Expect wind gusts of 30 to 35 kts at KRDU and KRWI,
with the strongest winds at KFAY, potentially gusting as high
as 45 kts.

Both rain and wind intensity will not be as high at KGSO and KINT,
but they will continue to see IFR to LIFR ceilings throughout the
day on Saturday with wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts.

In the wake of Hurricane Matthew moving out into the Atlantic,
breezy, High pressure will build east into the area Sunday and
Sunday night bringing a west to east return to VFR conditions.
Breezy north/northwesterly winds will persist through
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1220 PM Friday...

Discussion for the southern Coastal Plain, Sandhills, and
southwestern Piedmont:

Antecedent conditions - heavier rain today has been concentrated
mainly over the southwest Piedmont and western Sandhills counties.
Rainfall across this area has ranged up to nearly 1.5 inches,
effectively saturating areas from Raeford west to Albemarle and
Wadesboro. Only a few tenths of an inch have fallen over eastern
Hoke, northern Cumberland, and southern Harnett counties, which
were the areas which received 8 to 10+ inches of rain late last
week.

Rainfall from Matthew late tonight through Saturday night is
expected to range from 6 to 10 inches over these areas, with
perhaps 10+ inches over far southern Cumberland and Sampson
counties. The heavier rainfall is expected during the day
Saturday, and as tropical rainfall rates can exceed 2 inches per
hour, flash flooding could occur quickly, especially in urban
areas. Rainfall will drain quickly into local streams and into low
lying areas, and travel may be hindered by extensive flooding well
into Sunday.

Larger rivers which could reach flood stage include the lower Cape
Fear, Neuse, Black, and possibly the Tar. Of particular concern is
the Little River, which runs across northern Cumberland county.
Flooding is more likely on the Little river and a flood warning has
been issued for the Little river at Manchester, where the river
could exceed moderate flood stage as it is still high from record
flooding last week. A number of dams in Hoke, Cumberland and
southern Harnett county affected by the heavy rain last week also
remain vulnerable due to weakened structures and high water levels.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for NCZ011-026>028-
041>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Sunday for
NCZ011-026>028-041>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...CBL
HYDROLOGY...MLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016

NCZ011-026>028-041>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-081000-
HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-
MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
320 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

NCZ008>010-023>025-038>040-081000-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
CHATHAM-
320 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PERIODS OF RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES... WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS
EXPECTED. MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
15 TO 25 MPH WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH... WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
FEW DOWNED TREES IN THE SATURATED SOILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

NCZ007-021-022-081000-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-
320 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.