Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1131 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Updated forecast mainly to reflect current radar trends. Will
continue to mention scattered thunderstorms, mostly north of
highway 36, through the morning hours. Storms have pulsed a bit
last couple hours but are generally remaining below severe limits.
Storms across Yuma and Dundy counties continue to be elevated but
will likely may become more surface based later this morning. SPC
most unstable CAPE currently shows around 1000 J/KG in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 121 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Latest satellite and upper air analysis indicated nearly zonal flow
over the Central Plains.  Embedded in the zonal flow was an upper
level short wave trough over Eastern Colorado.  Ahead of the short
wave trough a line of strong to severe thunderstorms had developed
along a cold front that was moving south across the Tri-State Area.
Latest storm activity is not as robust as initially thought or as
widespread.  If storm activity does not expand in coverage over the
next few hours, will have to revisit rainfall chances for today.

Today am currently expecting the line of storms from the overnight
hours to continue moving east across the Tri-State Area.  Models
indicate the upper level short wave trough will deepen over the line
of storms early this morning.  Am expecting rainfall chances to end
from west to east starting in the mid morning as the back edge of
the line of storms begins to move into the area followed by
subsidence.  The storm activity should be east of the area by early
afternoon if not before.

During the late afternoon another upper level short wave trough will
develop over the far western part of the area.  This may trigger the
next round of storms for the day.

The storm chances will move over the west half of the Tri-State Area
this evening before the short wave trough fills later in the evening.

Overnight another upper level short wave trough will approach the
Tri-State Area from the north.  This one looks like it will just
graze the northern part of the area, with most of the storm activity
north of the Tri-State Area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Friday chances for storms increase through the day as the upper
level short wave trough to the north moves through the area.  Am
expecting storm activity to increase from northwest to southeast
during the day.

Friday evening another round of storms will move in from the west as
another upper level short wave trough moves through.  Most of the
storm activity with this trough will be south of the Tri-State Area
by midnight.  Overnight the nose of the low level jet develops over
Tri-State Area, with the best elevated CAPE over the eastern 1/3 of
the area.  Expect the best chances for storms over the east due to
the much better CAPE and the stronger lift as an upper level short
wave trough moves over the elevated CAPE field during the overnight
hours.

Saturday morning there maybe some lingering storms in the eastern
part of the Tri-State Area as the upper level short wave trough
departs and the nose of the low level jet dissipates.  During the
afternoon dry air and a cap will prevent any storms from developing
despite the presence of an upper level short wave trough over the
far west and far east parts of the area.

Saturday night a strong upper level short wave trough will move
across Central Nebraska, with lift possibly extending as far south
as the central part of the Tri-State Area.  Any storms that develop
will be east of the area by sunrise Sunday.

There will be a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms each day and
night with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats.

Regarding high temperatures, they will be coolest today then
gradually warm as the upper level ridge moves closer to the Tri-
State Area now through Saturday.

The Sunday through Wednesday period is expected to be primarily
dry and warm/hot across the Tri-State region. As the period
progresses the ridge that has been impacting the region will
strengthen and limit moisture from moving up into the CWA. The
only way for precipitation chances to occur is if moisture from
Arizona and the Gulf of California move into the region, which
looks to be the case Monday night (but only slight chances were
added to the forecast due to the uncertainty). Overall, with the
dominate ridge sitting over the high plains temperatures are
expected to be in the 90s to low 100s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

KGLD: Weak surface pattern will give light and variable winds
through the period with a tendency toward more steady SSE winds
later tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
over northwest Kansas after 20Z and dissipate by 02Z. Have
accounted for this in TAF with VCTS.

KMCK: Weak surface pattern will also result in generally light and
variable winds through the TAF period. Scattered showers with
isolated thunder currently on radar west of McCook will approach
the terminal area 18-20Z. Thereafter convection near KMCK is
expected to be more isolated for remainder of afternoon into early
evening.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/CLT
AVIATION...DLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151700-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1055 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016 /1155 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...AND ALSO NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MAIN HAZARDS IN
ADDITION TO CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW TO 60 MPH AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ090-142015-
YUMA COUNTY CO-
202 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM MDT...

AT 202 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES EAST OF COPE...OR 24 MILES WEST OF BONNY RESERVOIR...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIRK AND JOES.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 208 AND 210.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3963 10277 3982 10261 3958 10218 3957 10268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 305DEG 24KT 3967 10263

JRM