Severe Thunderstorm Warning 323, NWS Goodland, KS

413 
WWUS53 KGLD 140518
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1118 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

COC017-063-KSC181-199-140545-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0323.000000T0000Z-160714T0545Z/
KIT CARSON CO-CHEYENNE CO-WALLACE KS-SHERMAN KS-
1118 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON AND NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...

AT 1118 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTH OF
KANORADO...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON AND NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 167 AND 179.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 10236 3925 10225 3923 10176 3893 10186
TIME...MOT...LOC 0518Z 271DEG 37KT 3911 10210 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRM

385 
WWUS53 KGLD 140527
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

COC017-063-KSC181-199-140545-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0323.000000T0000Z-160714T0545Z/
KIT CARSON CO-CHEYENNE CO-WALLACE KS-SHERMAN KS-
1127 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON AND NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...

AT 1127 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES SOUTH OF
KANORADO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON AND NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 10224 3920 10219 3923 10176 3893 10186
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 277DEG 24KT 3911 10210 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

007

105 
WWUS53 KGLD 140535
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1135 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

COC017-063-KSC181-199-140545-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0323.000000T0000Z-160714T0545Z/
KIT CARSON CO-CHEYENNE CO-WALLACE KS-SHERMAN KS-
1135 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON AND
NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 PM MDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3904 10224 3920 10219 3923 10176 3893 10186
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 269DEG 41KT 3911 10210 

$$

007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1000 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Northwest surface winds at 5-10 kts are bringing in drier air
with dewpoints in the lower 50s in the northwest while lower 60s
remain in the southeast. Subsidence behind this morning's
convection and a lack of any organized surface convergence has
resulted in generally clear skies through the day.

Not expecting any thunderstorms this afternoon or this evening,
but development looks more promising tonight after midnight,
increasing during the last half of the night. Water vapor imagery
shows a short wave trough pushing steadily east over Idaho which
will likely be a player in enhancing lift later tonight. The NAM
and GFS have been advertising storm development later tonight and
now the NMM/ARW are showing a similar solution, so confidence is
increasing for precipitation initiating between midnight and
daybreak, then expanding east-southeast with time.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Long term begins with troughing to the east of the CWA and a
building ridge to the west. H5 shortwave will move across the area
from northwest to southeast along the western fringe of the trough
on Friday, giving us a decent chance of thunderstorm activity
through the afternoon, evening, and into the overnight hours. Severe
thunderstorms are possible as CAPE values approach 2800 J/kg (GFS)
with deep layer shear at 40 to 45 kt (GFS), and DCAPE values at 500
to 700 J/Kg (GFS). This trough will exit the region Saturday morning
with a few lingering showers in the morning and otherwise dry
conditions expected after about midday. Strong ridging will prevail
as we head into Sunday with the ridge axis becoming centered around
southern to south central Kansas.

Very strong ridge is set up to take shape across the central High
Plains as we head into next week with the GFS and ECMWF indicating
500mb heights at or just above 600dam. Superblend solution puts
high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s; however, I raised
temps by 1 to 2 degrees over guidance due to the area being
situated nearly directly under the ridge axis through the end of
the extended forecast period. Most of the region will see at least
a moderate potential to climb all the way to or just above 100
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Wed Jul 13 2016

KGLD...vfr conditions expected from 10z through the rest of the
taf period. Winds from the east then southeast 10kts or less. May
have a few showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity but probabilities
too low to include in the forecast. Immediate concern is for
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall to
impact the terminal from taf issuance through about 09z. Short
range models in a bit better agreement bringing a weather
disturbance across the terminal area through 09z. MVFR/IFR
visibilities possible should heavy rain fall at the airport.
Outflow winds Winds may also gust near/over 45kts.

KMCK...vfr conditions expected through the period. Convection
expected to move northeast reaching the terminal in the 08z-11z
timeframe producing some gusty winds to 35kts and light to
moderate rainfall producing some reduced visibilities. Winds
generally from the east and northeast under 10kts. After 11z winds
generally from the north to east at speeds under 10kts. Could have
a few showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity or at the terminal
during the day but confidence too low to include in forecast at
this time.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
900 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-141200-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
900 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016 /1000 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MOVING NORTHEAST AND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION BRINGING HOT TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
958 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

COZ091-140415-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
958 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY UNTIL
1015 PM MDT...

AT 958 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
VONA...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF STRATTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STRATTON...BETHUNE AND VONA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 408 AND
429.

LAT...LON 3925 10282 3943 10284 3950 10244 3923 10241
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 264DEG 33KT 3935 10274

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1020 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

COZ091-140430-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
1020 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 1030 PM MDT...

AT 1020 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BETHUNE...OR 8 MILES WEST OF BURLINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...STRATTON AND BETHUNE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 421 AND 447.
 HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 181 AND 198.

LAT...LON 3924 10259 3945 10262 3946 10208 3919 10211
TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 274DEG 38KT 3935 10243

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1029 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

COZ091-140445-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
1029 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 1045 PM MDT...

AT 1029 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BURLINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...STRATTON AND BETHUNE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 420 AND 450.
 HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 178 AND 200.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3917 10259 3945 10262 3950 10205 3916 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0429Z 270DEG 33KT 3934 10231

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1031 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

COZ090-140445-
YUMA COUNTY CO-
1031 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
1045 PM MDT...

AT 1031 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES EAST OF COPE...OR 25 MILES WEST OF BONNY RESERVOIR...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIRK AND JOES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3985 10263 3974 10229 3957 10255 3957 10257
      3969 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0431Z 300DEG 26KT 3974 10262

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1047 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

COZ091-140500-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
1047 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 1100 PM MDT...

AT 1047 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTH OF BETHUNE...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURLINGTON...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 434 AND 450.
 HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 170 AND 188.

LAT...LON 3938 10205 3905 10205 3904 10251 3905 10251
      3921 10258
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 252DEG 23KT 3915 10243

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1048 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

KSZ001-013-140500-
CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN KS-
1048 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE AND
NORTHWESTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 1100 PM
MDT/MIDNIGHT CDT/...

AT 1048 PM MDT/1148 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTH OF ST. FRANCIS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHEELER.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3944 10190 3960 10202 3976 10171 3949 10155
TIME...MOT...LOC 0448Z 252DEG 23KT 3957 10184

JRM