Severe Thunderstorm Warning 340, NWS Goodland, KS

692 
WWUS53 KGLD 142127
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
327 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COC017-142215-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0340.000000T0000Z-160714T2215Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
327 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 326 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF
KIT CARSON...OR 25 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE WELLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIT CARSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 10274 3861 10250 3861 10288 3894 10291
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 337DEG 25KT 3888 10281 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRM

136 
WWUS53 KGLD 142136
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
336 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COC017-142215-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0340.000000T0000Z-160714T2215Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
336 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 335 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
KIT CARSON...OR 23 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE WELLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. AT 328 PM MDT GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WAS
         REPORTED 12 MILES NORTH OF KIT CARSON. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIT CARSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GOODLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 10274 3861 10250 3861 10288 3894 10291
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 329DEG 17KT 3885 10278 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRM

028 
WWUS53 KGLD 142151
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
351 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COC017-142215-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0340.000000T0000Z-160714T2215Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
351 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 351 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
KIT CARSON...OR 22 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE WELLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIT CARSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GOODLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 10250 3861 10288 3890 10290 3892 10271
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 330DEG 15KT 3883 10277 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRM

464 
WWUS53 KGLD 142204
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
404 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COC017-142215-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0340.000000T0000Z-160714T2215Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
404 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 404 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KIT
CARSON...OR 22 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE WELLS...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIT CARSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GOODLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 10250 3861 10288 3884 10288 3889 10270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 338DEG 22KT 3874 10275 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
243 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Updated forecast mainly to reflect current radar trends. Will
continue to mention scattered thunderstorms, mostly north of
highway 36, through the morning hours. Storms have pulsed a bit
last couple hours but are generally remaining below severe limits.
Storms across Yuma and Dundy counties continue to be elevated but
will likely may become more surface based later this morning. SPC
most unstable CAPE currently shows around 1000 J/KG in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 121 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Latest satellite and upper air analysis indicated nearly zonal flow
over the Central Plains.  Embedded in the zonal flow was an upper
level short wave trough over Eastern Colorado.  Ahead of the short
wave trough a line of strong to severe thunderstorms had developed
along a cold front that was moving south across the Tri-State Area.
Latest storm activity is not as robust as initially thought or as
widespread.  If storm activity does not expand in coverage over the
next few hours, will have to revisit rainfall chances for today.

Today am currently expecting the line of storms from the overnight
hours to continue moving east across the Tri-State Area.  Models
indicate the upper level short wave trough will deepen over the line
of storms early this morning.  Am expecting rainfall chances to end
from west to east starting in the mid morning as the back edge of
the line of storms begins to move into the area followed by
subsidence.  The storm activity should be east of the area by early
afternoon if not before.

During the late afternoon another upper level short wave trough will
develop over the far western part of the area.  This may trigger the
next round of storms for the day.

The storm chances will move over the west half of the Tri-State Area
this evening before the short wave trough fills later in the evening.

Overnight another upper level short wave trough will approach the
Tri-State Area from the north.  This one looks like it will just
graze the northern part of the area, with most of the storm activity
north of the Tri-State Area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Friday night and Saturday morning: Shortwave trough moves across the
region with thunderstorm chances prevailing through the night. CAPE
values remain in the 1200 to 1800 J/Kg range through the overnight
with very high shear values of 50 to 70 kt. We could see elevated
supercell mode of convection with large hail risk mainly in the
eastern portions of the CWA as the H5 shortwave exits the region.
Although there is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF with
regards to CAPE and deep layer shear, overall spacial and temporal
agreement looks good.

Saturday and Sunday: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
across far southwest Nebraska will be possible Saturday afternoon
with isolated thunderstorm chances elsewhere as a weak shortwave
traverses the region. A ridge begins to build into the central
Plains through the day on Sunday with an axis centered in northern
TX and southern OK. Moisture levels will increase in the western
portions of the CWA along the edge of the ridge which could lead to
slight chances for evening/nighttime thunderstorms on Sunday. It is
worth noting that due to the proximity of the ridge it will be
difficult to initiate convection therefore I left pops in the 10-15
percent range.

Monday through Wednesday: Medium range guidance indicates daily PoPs
across the region; however with the ridge firmly in place over the
central Plains, I left PoPs nil to slgt which is probably
optimistic. High pressure ridge at the H5 lvl will approach 600dam
by late Monday and early Tuesday, remaining locked in over the
region through the forecast period. Will need to pay close attention
to high temperatures as superblend is persistent with highs in the
upper 90s and some 100s. With very strong ridging in play we may be
looking to easily exceed 100 degrees by mid-week across much of the
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

KGLD: Weak surface pattern will give light and variable winds
through the period with a tendency toward more steady SSE winds
later tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
over northwest Kansas after 20Z and dissipate by 02Z. Have
accounted for this in TAF with VCTS.

KMCK: Weak surface pattern will also result in generally light and
variable winds through the TAF period. Scattered showers with
isolated thunder currently on radar west of McCook will approach
the terminal area 18-20Z. Thereafter convection near KMCK is
expected to be more isolated for remainder of afternoon into early
evening.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151700-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1055 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016 /1155 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...AND ALSO NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MAIN HAZARDS IN
ADDITION TO CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW TO 60 MPH AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ090-142015-
YUMA COUNTY CO-
202 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM MDT...

AT 202 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES EAST OF COPE...OR 24 MILES WEST OF BONNY RESERVOIR...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIRK AND JOES.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 208 AND 210.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3963 10277 3982 10261 3958 10218 3957 10268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 305DEG 24KT 3967 10263

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ090-091-142100-
YUMA COUNTY CO-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
238 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA AND
NORTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

AT 238 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES WEST OF BONNY RESERVOIR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA
AND NORTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTIES.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 200 AND 208...AND NEAR
MILE MARKER 211.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3967 10250 3957 10218 3934 10235 3951 10262
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 300DEG 23KT 3956 10249

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ092-142100-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
246 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

AT 246 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES NORTH OF KIT CARSON...OR 21 MILES SOUTH OF SEIBERT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 10286 3904 10268 3893 10249 3874 10273
      3897 10295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 313DEG 26KT 3899 10280

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
303 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ091-092-142115-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
303 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON AND
NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 315 PM
MDT...

AT 303 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTH OF KIT CARSON...OR 21 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE
WELLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FIRSTVIEW.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 156 AND 159.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3904 10296 3910 10272 3903 10253 3892 10230
      3871 10265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 312DEG 26KT 3893 10272

JRM