Severe Thunderstorm Warning 346, NWS Goodland, KS

479 
WWUS53 KGLD 142346
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COC017-150000-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0346.000000T0000Z-160715T0000Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
546 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 546 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF KIT CARSON...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHEYENNE WELLS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIT CARSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3882 10283 3876 10261 3861 10270 3861 10289
      3867 10293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 295DEG 40KT 3867 10274 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRM

940 
WWUS53 KGLD 142349
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COC017-142359-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0346.000000T0000Z-160715T0000Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
549 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3882 10283 3876 10261 3861 10270 3861 10289
      3867 10293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 289DEG 22KT 3866 10272 

$$

JRM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
330 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)
Issued at 3:30 PM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Surface map is rather chaotic with generally weak flow and lack of
well defined features. Thunderstorms are currently developing over
eastern Colorado in weak upslope flow and along and ahead of wind
convergent zone which lies just west of forecast area. Decent CAPE
of 1500 J/KG and deep layer shear of 35 kts is present to promote
storm organization next 4-5 hours with a few splitting storms into
the evening hours. Mean winds are from 290 deg around 15 kts so
storms will be slow to enter far western Kansas late this afternoon
and evening.

Guidance overnight into Friday suggests a thunderstorm complex may
develop further north in Nebraska/South Dakota and move southeast
overnight and graze the extreme northeast portion of the CWA Friday
morning. Confidence is not all that high that we will be affected as
the bulk of the precip may remain to our northeast but this feature
is mentioned in forecast. By mid-afternoon, sfc heating will erase
convective inhibition and scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop on any remaining mesoscale boundaries.

Temps Friday will be similar to this afternoon with highs remaining
in the 80s and little change in 850 mb temps next 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Friday night and Saturday morning: Shortwave trough moves across the
region with thunderstorm chances prevailing through the night. CAPE
values remain in the 1200 to 1800 J/Kg range through the overnight
with very high shear values of 50 to 70 kt. We could see elevated
supercell mode of convection with large hail risk mainly in the
eastern portions of the CWA as the H5 shortwave exits the region.
Although there is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF with
regards to CAPE and deep layer shear, overall spacial and temporal
agreement looks good.

Saturday and Sunday: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
across far southwest Nebraska will be possible Saturday afternoon
with isolated thunderstorm chances elsewhere as a weak shortwave
traverses the region. A ridge begins to build into the central
Plains through the day on Sunday with an axis centered in northern
TX and southern OK. Moisture levels will increase in the western
portions of the CWA along the edge of the ridge which could lead to
slight chances for evening/nighttime thunderstorms on Sunday. It is
worth noting that due to the proximity of the ridge it will be
difficult to initiate convection therefore I left pops in the 10-15
percent range.

Monday through Wednesday: Medium range guidance indicates daily PoPs
across the region; however with the ridge firmly in place over the
central Plains, I left PoPs nil to slgt which is probably
optimistic. High pressure ridge at the H5 lvl will approach 600dam
by late Monday and early Tuesday, remaining locked in over the
region through the forecast period. Will need to pay close attention
to high temperatures as superblend is persistent with highs in the
upper 90s and some 100s. With very strong ridging in play we may be
looking to easily exceed 100 degrees by mid-week across much of the
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

KGLD: Weak surface pattern will give light and variable winds
through the period with a tendency toward more steady SSE winds
later tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
over northwest Kansas after 20Z and dissipate by 02Z. Have
accounted for this in TAF with VCTS.

KMCK: Weak surface pattern will also result in generally light and
variable winds through the TAF period. Scattered showers with
isolated thunder currently on radar west of McCook will approach
the terminal area 18-20Z. Thereafter convection near KMCK is
expected to be more isolated for remainder of afternoon into early
evening.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151700-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1055 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016 /1155 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...AND ALSO NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MAIN HAZARDS IN
ADDITION TO CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW TO 60 MPH AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ092-142100-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
246 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

AT 246 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES NORTH OF KIT CARSON...OR 21 MILES SOUTH OF SEIBERT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 10286 3904 10268 3893 10249 3874 10273
      3897 10295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 313DEG 26KT 3899 10280

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
303 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ091-092-142115-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
303 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON AND
NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 315 PM
MDT...

AT 303 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTH OF KIT CARSON...OR 21 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE
WELLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FIRSTVIEW.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 156 AND 159.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3904 10296 3910 10272 3903 10253 3892 10230
      3871 10265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 312DEG 26KT 3893 10272

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
335 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             12 N KIT CARSON         38.94N 102.80W
07/14/2016  E1.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

            PEA TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL. ENDED AT TIME OF EVENT.

&&

HILL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
449 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             6 SE KIT CARSON         38.70N 102.72W
07/14/2016  E0.88 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

&&

HILL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
512 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             11 NE BOYERO            39.03N 103.13W
07/14/2016  E0.88 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

            ENDED AROUND TIME OF EVENT.

&&

HILL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ092-142330-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
514 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 514 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES WEST OF KIT CARSON...OR 29 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE
WELLS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIT CARSON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3865 10298 3884 10297 3888 10264 3867 10267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 271DEG 21KT 3876 10288

JRM