Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
519 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 121 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Latest satellite and upper air analysis indicated nearly zonal flow
over the Central Plains.  Embedded in the zonal flow was an upper
level short wave trough over Eastern Colorado.  Ahead of the short
wave trough a line of strong to severe thunderstorms had developed
along a cold front that was moving south across the Tri-State Area.
Latest storm activity is not as robust as initially thought or as
widespread.  If storm activity does not expand in coverage over the
next few hours, will have to revisit rainfall chances for today.

Today am currently expecting the line of storms from the overnight
hours to continue moving east across the Tri-State Area.  Models
indicate the upper level short wave trough will deepen over the line
of storms early this morning.  Am expecting rainfall chances to end
from west to east starting in the mid morning as the back edge of
the line of storms begins to move into the area followed by
subsidence.  The storm activity should be east of the area by early
afternoon if not before.

During the late afternoon another upper level short wave trough will
develop over the far western part of the area.  This may trigger the
next round of storms for the day.

The storm chances will move over the west half of the Tri-State Area
this evening before the short wave trough fills later in the evening.

Overnight another upper level short wave trough will approach the
Tri-State Area from the north.  This one looks like it will just
graze the northern part of the area, with most of the storm activity
north of the Tri-State Area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Friday chances for storms increase through the day as the upper
level short wave trough to the north moves through the area.  Am
expecting storm activity to increase from northwest to southeast
during the day.

Friday evening another round of storms will move in from the west as
another upper level short wave trough moves through.  Most of the
storm activity with this trough will be south of the Tri-State Area
by midnight.  Overnight the nose of the low level jet develops over
Tri-State Area, with the best elevated CAPE over the eastern 1/3 of
the area.  Expect the best chances for storms over the east due to
the much better CAPE and the stronger lift as an upper level short
wave trough moves over the elevated CAPE field during the overnight
hours.

Saturday morning there maybe some lingering storms in the eastern
part of the Tri-State Area as the upper level short wave trough
departs and the nose of the low level jet dissipates.  During the
afternoon dry air and a cap will prevent any storms from developing
despite the presence of an upper level short wave trough over the
far west and far east parts of the area.

Saturday night a strong upper level short wave trough will move
across Central Nebraska, with lift possibly extending as far south
as the central part of the Tri-State Area.  Any storms that develop
will be east of the area by sunrise Sunday.

There will be a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms each day and
night with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats.

Regarding high temperatures, they will be coolest today then
gradually warm as the upper level ridge moves closer to the Tri-
State Area now through Saturday.

The Sunday through Wednesday period is expected to be primarily
dry and warm/hot across the Tri-State region. As the period
progresses the ridge that has been impacting the region will
strengthen and limit moisture from moving up into the CWA. The
only way for precipitation chances to occur is if moisture from
Arizona and the Gulf of California move into the region, which
looks to be the case Monday night (but only slight chances were
added to the forecast due to the uncertainty). Overall, with the
dominate ridge sitting over the high plains temperatures are
expected to be in the 90s to low 100s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 514 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

VFR conditions expected for the 12z TAFs. Scattered showers will
be near KGLD for the first part of the TAF. Winds for the first
few hours will be tricky to determine due to the outflow winds
from the storm activity. Best guess is the winds should turn back
to an easterly direction in a couple of hours. Some scattered
storms may develop later this afternoon and evening west of KGLD.
Overnight isolated storms may develop around KMCK. Do not have
enough confidence at this time to place a mention of storms in
the TAF.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/CLT
AVIATION...JTL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
145 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-150745-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
145 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016 /245 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 THEN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JTL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
344 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ091-141000-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
344 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY UNTIL
400 AM MDT...

AT 344 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF VONA...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF STRATTON...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL KIT CARSON
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3932 10277 3942 10275 3941 10244 3930 10246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0944Z 273DEG 35KT 3936 10268

LUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

KSZ015-141045-
SHERIDAN KS-
529 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY
UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

AT 529 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTH OF SELDEN...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOXIE...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOXIE...SELDEN AND SEGUIN.

LAT...LON 3934 10036 3934 10072 3952 10071 3957 10037
TIME...MOT...LOC 1029Z 265DEG 39KT 3944 10060

LUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

KSZ015-141100-
SHERIDAN KS-
543 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY
UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

AT 542 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF HOXIE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOXIE AND STUDLEY.

LAT...LON 3937 10050 3955 10051 3956 10016 3934 10016
TIME...MOT...LOC 1042Z 268DEG 29KT 3947 10037

LUNDQUIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
523 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     HAIL             1 S GOODLAND            39.33N 101.71W
07/13/2016  E1.00 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LASTED A MINUTE. MOSTLY PEA SIZE HAIL WITH SOME NICKEL
            SIZE AND A FEW QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

1247 AM     TSTM WND GST     GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
07/14/2016  M55.00 MPH       SHERMAN            KS   ASOS

&&

CLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
605 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

KSZ041-141215-
GREELEY KS-
605 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GREELEY COUNTY UNTIL 615
AM MDT...

AT 605 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HORACE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TRIBUNE...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRIBUNE AND HORACE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3830 10203 3851 10199 3849 10167 3829 10173
TIME...MOT...LOC 1205Z 278DEG 37KT 3839 10191

LUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
621 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

KSZ041-141245-
GREELEY KS-
621 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREELEY COUNTY UNTIL
645 AM MDT...

AT 620 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF HORACE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TRIBUNE...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
GREELEY COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3827 10192 3845 10192 3845 10157 3827 10157
TIME...MOT...LOC 1220Z 281DEG 25KT 3837 10184

DLF