River Flood Warning 157, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
117 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.AVIATION...
18 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns...Thunder potential and MVFR ceilings.

For the Metroplex TAF sites...Scattered convection is expected to
continue to move in from the east as the subtle meso-low
continues to pull westward. Instability is a bit on the low side
with a very moist profile, which suggests that lightning strikes
should be very isolated. Regardless, will carry a TEMPO group for
TSRA through the early afternoon hours with the main concern
being poor visibility. Thereafter--- the main upper low should
gradually fill and even sag southward. This should result in a
wind shift from the east to the north. Timing of this is
uncertain, so for now will prevail variable winds through the
overnight hours and into Friday morning. Thereafter, south winds
should resume as broad surface troughing develops. Model guidance
does suggest that IFR/LIFR ceilings/visibility may develop in the
evening and overnight hours---but given the expected threat for
showers, sub-cloud base mixing may result in only MVFR ceilings.
If precip does not develop as currently thought, then LIFR/IFR may
develop.

For the Waco TAF site...Slightly better flying conditions are
expected here as drier air lifts northward at least through the
early to mid afternoon hours. There will be the potential for
additional shower development this afternoon as precipitation
develops on the backside of the surface low. MVFR ceilings are
still expected to previal through much of the TAF cycle with VCSH
expected at times.

Bain

&&

.UPDATE...
After a much needed reprieve from heavy rainfall yesterday,
widespread rains are impacting much of the region this morning,
and will continue to do so for the remainder of the day and into
the overnight hours. Moisture channel imagery shows a vigorous
upper-level low just about over Del Rio, Texas with the
associated trough axis now beginning to take on a more neutral
tilt. Strong upper-level divergence associated with the
encroaching low has fostered an expansive area of moderate to
embedded heavy rainfall which continues to move into North Central
Texas.

This area of rainfall will continue to march northward through
the remainder of the morning and will impact the Metroplex
shortly. Precipitation amounts have been on the order of one half
to one inch, with some isolated amounts in excess of 2 inches over
the past three hours. With our saturated soils, this is all it's
taking to cause flooding issues.

As the upper level low gradually tracks eastward, the main
precip shield should begin to pivot towards the west, which means
that many locations in our CWA will remain under the gun for
continued bouts of rainfall through the day. Overnight, there are
still hints from model guidance of a consolidating warm core low
impacting a portion of our region, but pinning its ultimate
location down is not possible at this time. The important point
here is that these types of nocturnally-enhanced systems can be
exceptional rainfall producers over a highly localized area--and
isolated rainfall amounts in excess of six inches are not out of
the question.

Finally, current indications are that flooding rains may linger
longer than initially anticipated across our central and western
zones, and for this reason we have extended the Flash Flood Watch
to cover all of North and Central Texas until 1 PM tomorrow.

Carlaw

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/
The approach of an upper level low and a weak front have created
bouts with showers and a plethora of cloud layers across North and
Central Texas. It seemed that ceilings were holding out in the
MVFR category for the entire shift, until in the past half hour
when sites in the Metroplex suddenly began reporting IFR. So we
will indicate IFR cigs during the morning hours with improvement
back to MVFR by mid day. Meanwhile, the weak winds along the
front have already begun to back to a more northeasterly
direction, and should become due north this evening with speeds
remaining well below 10 KT. Thunderstorms will become more likely
this afternoon as the upper low encroaches on Central TX during
peak heating hours. Storms should decrease in coverage late this
evening, though isolated activity will continue overnight.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  67  78  68  85 / 100  80  60  50  50
Waco                79  66  78  65  82 / 100  70  60  50  50
Paris               77  66  76  67  80 / 100  80  70  50  50
Denton              78  65  76  65  84 /  90  70  60  40  40
McKinney            78  66  77  66  82 /  90  80  70  50  40
Dallas              80  68  78  68  84 / 100  80  60  50  50
Terrell             79  67  77  67  82 / 100  80  70  50  50
Corsicana           78  68  77  68  81 / 100  80  70  50  60
Temple              77  66  77  65  81 / 100  70  60  50  60
Mineral Wells       78  65  76  65  83 / 100  70  60  40  40

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

15/90

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
431 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
431 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...DUE TO A SLOW MOVING
FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END LATE SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
130 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLEBURNE                32.35N  97.40W
06/02/2016                   JOHNSON            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CLEBURNE EOC REPORTED HOMES TAKING ON WATER. JOHNSON
            COUNTY EMC REPORTED SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS CLOSED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
213 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 SW HAMILTON          31.60N  98.24W
06/02/2016                   HAMILTON           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAMILTON COUNTY SO REPORTED WATER GETTING INTO ONE HOME
            IN SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
215 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW CLEBURNE           32.33N  97.42W
06/02/2016                   JOHNSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGH WATER RESCUE ION OLD FOAMY ROAD...SOUTH OF CLEBURNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
215 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW CLEBURNE           32.33N  97.42W
06/02/2016                   JOHNSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGH WATER RESCUE ON OLD FOAMY ROAD...SOUTH OF CLEBURNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
248 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SE GAINESVILLE        33.60N  97.11W
06/02/2016                   COOKE              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS WITH A FOOT OF WATER OVER THE ROADS FROM
            GAINESVILLE TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N CISCO               32.41N  98.97W
06/02/2016                   EASTLAND           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY ROAD 561 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. OTHER ROADS
            CLOSED AROUND LAKE CISCO