Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
337 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall continues across the
northwestern half of our CWA early this afternoon. One to two inch
amounts have been commonplace today, with isolated reports of
near 3 inches. Numerous mesovortices within the parent
precipitation shield have been acting to locally enhance rainfall
production.

For the remainder of the afternoon, the brunt of the precipitation
will continue to pivot north and westward as the mid-level dryslot
evident on moisture channel imagery punches into the region. Thus,
have confined the highest PoPs in the short term to basically
along and north of the I-20 corridor. Additional isolated to
scattered convection should also develop where we cleared
earlier--effectively south of an Athens to Meridian to Killeen
line and pivot around the primary surface low center which is
somewhere around Coryell county at this time.

This evening and overnight, the primary precipitation axis
should reorient itself basically along and west of the I-35
corridor, and this has become our primary area of concern for a
continued flash flood threat. As the airmass nocturnally cools, we
are still concerned about the potential for a core rain type of
event as precipitation consolidates around surface low pressure.
This threat may be tempered somewhat if mid and upper-level dry
air continues to intrude into the region. That said, these types
of events are incredibly difficult to pin down, even inside a few
hours, but the threat for localized very heavy rainfall exists
late tonight and tomorrow morning--again with the greatest risk
west of I-35.

We'll have one more day of scattered showers and storms to contend
with tomorrow, but the threat for widespread flash flooding should
gradually come to an end tomorrow afternoon and evening. Dry air
will...finally...dive into the region on Saturday on northeasterly
flow, although we should hang onto enough low-level moisture to
warrant generally chance PoPs across the region. Dry conditions
will finally return area-wide Sunday night and into the end of
next week.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 117 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/
18 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns...Thunder potential and MVFR ceilings.

For the Metroplex TAF sites...Scattered convection is expected to
continue to move in from the east as the subtle meso-low
continues to pull westward. Instability is a bit on the low side
with a very moist profile, which suggests that lightning strikes
should be very isolated. Regardless, will carry a TEMPO group for
TSRA through the early afternoon hours with the main concern
being poor visibility. Thereafter--- the main upper low should
gradually fill and even sag southward. This should result in a
wind shift from the east to the north. Timing of this is
uncertain, so for now will prevail variable winds through the
overnight hours and into Friday morning. Thereafter, south winds
should resume as broad surface troughing develops. Model guidance
does suggest that IFR/LIFR ceilings/visibility may develop in the
evening and overnight hours---but given the expected threat for
showers, sub-cloud base mixing may result in only MVFR ceilings.
If precip does not develop as currently thought, then LIFR/IFR may
develop.

For the Waco TAF site...Slightly better flying conditions are
expected here as drier air lifts northward at least through the
early to mid afternoon hours. There will be the potential for
additional shower development this afternoon as precipitation
develops on the backside of the surface low. MVFR ceilings are
still expected to prevail through much of the TAF cycle with VCSH
expected at times.

Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  78  68  85  67 /  80  60  50  50  20
Waco                66  78  65  82  66 /  70  60  50  50  30
Paris               66  76  67  80  64 /  80  70  50  50  20
Denton              65  76  65  84  65 /  70  60  40  40  20
McKinney            66  77  66  82  65 /  80  70  50  40  20
Dallas              68  78  68  84  67 /  80  60  50  50  20
Terrell             67  77  67  82  66 /  80  70  50  50  30
Corsicana           68  77  68  81  67 /  80  70  50  60  30
Temple              66  77  65  81  66 /  70  60  50  60  30
Mineral Wells       65  76  65  83  64 /  70  60  40  40  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

15/90

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
324 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER THREAT...AND DUE TO VERY SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING
AND RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 IS WHERE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVIEST
LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
130 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLEBURNE                32.35N  97.40W
06/02/2016                   JOHNSON            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CLEBURNE EOC REPORTED HOMES TAKING ON WATER. JOHNSON
            COUNTY EMC REPORTED SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS CLOSED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
213 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 SW HAMILTON          31.60N  98.24W
06/02/2016                   HAMILTON           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAMILTON COUNTY SO REPORTED WATER GETTING INTO ONE HOME
            IN SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
215 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW CLEBURNE           32.33N  97.42W
06/02/2016                   JOHNSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGH WATER RESCUE ION OLD FOAMY ROAD...SOUTH OF CLEBURNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
215 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW CLEBURNE           32.33N  97.42W
06/02/2016                   JOHNSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGH WATER RESCUE ON OLD FOAMY ROAD...SOUTH OF CLEBURNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
248 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SE GAINESVILLE        33.60N  97.11W
06/02/2016                   COOKE              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS WITH A FOOT OF WATER OVER THE ROADS FROM
            GAINESVILLE TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N CISCO               32.41N  98.97W
06/02/2016                   EASTLAND           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY ROAD 561 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. OTHER ROADS
            CLOSED AROUND LAKE CISCO